Iron Ore Prices Hold High Ground as Market Eyes Demand Clues

Iron ore 62% Fe, CFR China, remained near multi-month highs on July 23, 2025, as the market balanced bullish undercurrents with risk controls.

This morning, the SGX futures traded in the $99.70 to $100.10 per ton band, retesting territory not seen since earlier in the year. Official figures show that futures volume on the Dalian Commodity Exchange maintained recent highs.

This reflects both hedging and speculative demand from steelmakers. Market participants monitored signals from Beijing, where officials reaffirmed support for infrastructure projects and continued property reforms.

These policy statements ignited buying interest late yesterday and held prices firm overnight. The announcement of a major hydropower project in Tibet expects to create sustained demand for construction steel, reinforcing a supportive environment for iron ore.

Meanwhile, environmental and safety audits at minor Chinese mines have kept the supply side tight. Volume patterns reveal robust activity.

Contract turnover in both Dalian and Singapore stayed elevated throughout the prior session, while physical market activity reflected steady procurement from mainland mills.

No major ETF inflows in iron ore derivatives appeared, yet commodity ETFs reported healthy interest, mostly in gold, with silver showing stability in Asian and Western funds.

Iron Ore Holds Strong as Liquidity Supports Risk Sentiment

Macroeconomic sentiment hinges on infrastructure stimulus and ongoing supply bottlenecks. Chinese steel mills operated at controlled rates, targeting restocking ahead of seasonal demand but not pushing capacity to extremes.

Persistent outages at smaller exporters and sporadic blockages at shipping points limited potential increases in seaborne flows. Technical analysis of daily and 4-hour charts illustrates the current market tension.

Spot prices sit above all major moving averages, with the 20-, 50-, and 100-period lines well below the current price. The Relative Strength Index stabilized near 66 on the daily and 61 on the 4-hour chart, each suggesting momentum remains, but with some caution warranted.

MACD levels on higher time frames reinforce a persistent bullish bias, displaying positive histogram values and a wide gap between short and long EMAs. The price skirted the upper Bollinger Band during the last 24 hours, a clear sign of heightened volatility and bullish interest.

On the charts, the Global Liquidity Index, represented by the yellow line, swung higher into July 23, aligning with increased market liquidity and suggesting that capital flows have favored risk assets, including iron ore, in the Asian morning.

Resistance stands clearly at the psychological $100 level, while support clusters around $98 and $97. Any sharp drop could test these layers, but current indicators show more buyers than sellers at these pivots.

Overnight, profit-taking trimmed some gains, yet the session held on to most of the rally from the previous day. Silver prices followed a firm but less volatile path. COMEX registered $39.27 per ounce, while London prices hovered near $39.30.

The metals ETF space saw only muted flows overnight. Merchants and mills now look closely at Chinese policy follow-through and logistics updates.

The coming sessions will likely depend on demand realization, rather than speculation, as the Chinese construction calendar moves forward.

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