The IMF Third Review of Argentina Will Test a Fiscal Target That Was Already Lowered
ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The mission Arrives the week of 21 September. It is the third review under the current facility.
- —The scope Public accounts, inflation, reserves, fiscal targets and structural reform progress.
- —The target A primary surplus of 1.4% of output for 2026, revised down from 2.2%.
- —The reserves More than US$14bn accumulated during the year, but the pace has slowed considerably.
- —The forecasts Growth cut from 4% to 3.5%, with inflation around 25% by year end.
- —The catch A payment of US$806m falls due on 25 September, days after the mission arrives.
Argentina met a target this year. It is worth knowing that the target moved first.
The IMF third review of Argentina’s programme begins with a mission arriving the week of 21 September 2026. That it is the third review is the most useful new detail.
It matters because reviews are sequential and each one has its own targets. Knowing which review this is tells you what will be measured.
What Will Be Assessed
The declared scope covers public accounts, the inflation trajectory and reserves. It also covers compliance with fiscal targets and progress on structural reforms.
That is a standard list for an IMF third review. The interesting part is the number behind one item on it.
The fiscal target for 2026 is a primary surplus of 1.4% of output. The figure originally agreed was 2.2%.
So the target was revised down by eight tenths of a percentage point. Meeting 1.4% is a different achievement from meeting 2.2%.
That revision has been under-reported. Any assessment of whether Argentina is on track should state which version of the target is being used.
Reserves Are the Recurring Problem
The central bank has accumulated more than US$14bn over the year. That is a substantial figure in absolute terms.
The rate of accumulation has slowed considerably. A programme target on reserves is about the path, not only the level.
History here is instructive. At the second review in February 2026, the government requested a waiver after missing the reserves target.
The fund’s goal had been an increase of US$3bn. The year ended roughly US$14bn negative on net reserves, a deviation of about US$13bn.
A waiver at the IMF third review has not been reported by anyone. Given the slowdown it is a legitimate question, and should be framed as one.
The Numbers That Moved
The fund has cut its Argentine growth forecast for 2026 from 4% to 3.5%. It expects inflation at around 25% by year end.
Both revisions point the same way. The stabilisation is holding and the recovery is slower than projected.
That is also the argument made in a leader published in The Economist on 10 September. Growth is described there as slow and unequal, with real wages still below their pre-2023 level.
The Payments Calendar
A payment of US$806m falls due on 25 September 2026. That is days after the mission arrives.
Net payments to the fund through the end of 2026 come to around US$1.13bn. Private creditor maturities in 2027 are far larger, at roughly US$13bn.
That 2027 wall is the real constraint on Argentine policy. Every decision taken now is made with it in view.
Some US$6bn remained available under the existing facility as of February 2026. Whether a new agreement is on this mission’s agenda has not been reported.
What Has Not Been Established
Several details that would normally accompany a mission announcement are missing. Nobody has named who leads it.
The February mission was led by two fund officials, and it is plausible but unconfirmed that they return. Assuming it would be a guess.
No staff-level agreement has been reported as expected from this review. Nor has any disbursement figure been attached to it.
The second review unlocked around US$1bn. No equivalent number has been published for the current one.
One further caveat belongs here. The fund’s own statements could not be retrieved directly, so the figures above rest on Argentine reporting.
One Remark Worth Noting
The fund’s spokesperson addressed rising household loan delinquency at a briefing on 10 September. She said it does not for now represent a significant risk to financial stability.
She stressed the need to develop financial markets so that credit reaches businesses. That is the same prescription The Economist made four days later.
Household credit quality is the kind of indicator that turns quickly. A careful reader files that quote and revisits it at the fourth review.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the IMF mission arrive in Argentina?
The week of 21 September 2026. It is the third review under the current extended fund facility.
What fiscal target is being assessed?
A primary surplus of 1.4% of output for 2026, revised down from the 2.2% originally agreed. That revision is central to judging whether the target has been met.
What about reserves?
The central bank has accumulated more than US$14bn during the year, but the pace has slowed considerably. At the second review in February the government requested a waiver after missing the reserves goal.
What payments are due?
US$806m on 25 September 2026, with net payments to the fund through year end of around US$1.13bn. Private creditor maturities in 2027 are roughly US$13bn.
Have the fund’s forecasts changed?
Yes. Growth for 2026 was cut from 4% to 3.5%, with inflation expected around 25% by the end of the year.
Sources: Perfil, Prensa Mercosur and Diario Cronica, together with reporting on the February 2026 second review.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
In depth
Read More from The Rio Times