The IMF Third Review of Argentina Will Test a Target That Was Already Lowered Once
ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —Who is involved Argentina and the International Monetary Fund, the world’s lender of last resort to governments.
- —Why Argentina borrows from the fund more than any other country and is currently mid-programme.
- —What happens A team arrives next week to check whether the government kept its promises.
- —The budget promise A surplus before interest of 1.4% of national output for 2026.
- —The detail That target was originally 2.2%. It was revised down, which makes meeting it easier.
- —The catch Reserve building has slowed, and a waiver was already needed at the last review.
Argentina and the fund have been through this twenty-three times since 1958. This is the twenty-third programme’s third check-up.
Argentina has borrowed from the International Monetary Fund more often than any country on earth. The IMF third review of its current programme begins next week.
The arrangement is its twenty-third since 1958. A team arrives in Buenos Aires the week of 21 September to check on it.
What a Review Actually Is
A fund programme lends money in instalments, and each instalment is released only after a review. The team checks whether the government met the targets it agreed to.
Meet them and the money arrives. Miss them and the government asks for a waiver, which is granted or not depending on the politics.
The IMF third review covers public accounts, inflation, reserves, fiscal targets and structural reforms. That is a standard list.
The number underneath one item on it is not standard at all.
The Target That Moved
Argentina’s fiscal target for 2026 is a primary surplus of 1.4% of national output. A primary surplus means revenue exceeding spending before interest payments.
The figure originally agreed was 2.2%. It was revised down by eight tenths of a percentage point.
Meeting 1.4% is a different achievement from meeting 2.2%, and the distinction rarely survives into headlines. Argentina will likely be reported as having hit its target.
That will be true. It will also be true that the target moved first.
Reserves Are the Recurring Problem
The central bank has added more than US$14bn over the year, which sounds substantial. The rate of accumulation has slowed considerably.
A programme target on reserves is about the path, not only the level. This is where Argentina has failed before.
At the second review in February, the government formally requested a waiver after missing its reserve goal. The fund had asked for an increase of US$3bn.
The year ended roughly US$14bn negative on net reserves, a deviation of about US$13bn. No waiver request has been reported ahead of the IMF third review, and given the slowdown it is a fair question.
The Forecasts Both Moved Down
The fund cut its Argentine growth forecast for 2026 from 4% to 3.5%. It expects inflation around 25% by the end of the year.
Both revisions point the same way. Inflation is being beaten and the recovery is slower than anyone hoped.
The Economist made the same argument in a leader published on 10 September. Growth, it wrote, is slow and unequal, and real wages remain below where they stood before this government.
What Is Due and When
A payment of US$806m falls due on 25 September, days after the team arrives. Net payments to the fund through the end of 2026 come to around US$1.13bn.
The larger wall is elsewhere. Private creditor maturities in 2027 run to roughly US$13bn.
That year is the real constraint on Argentine policy, and every decision now is taken with it in view. The country also votes in 2027, which sharpens everything.
Around US$6bn remained available under the existing arrangement as of February. Whether a new agreement is on this mission’s agenda has not been reported.
One Line Worth Filing
The fund’s spokesperson was asked on 10 September about rising household loan delinquency in Argentina. It does not for now, she said, represent a significant risk to financial stability.
She stressed the need to develop financial markets so credit reaches businesses. Household credit quality is the kind of indicator that turns quickly.
A careful reader files that sentence and reads it again at the fourth review. For now, the meeting that matters starts next week.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the IMF mission arrive in Argentina?
The week of 21 September 2026. It is the third review under the current arrangement.
What is the fiscal target?
A primary surplus of 1.4% of national output for 2026, revised down from the 2.2% originally agreed. A primary surplus means revenue exceeding spending before interest.
What about reserves?
The central bank has added more than US$14bn during the year, but accumulation has slowed. At the February review the government requested a waiver after missing its reserve goal.
What payments are due?
US$806m on 25 September 2026, with net payments to the fund through year end of around US$1.13bn. Private creditor maturities in 2027 run to roughly US$13bn.
Why does Argentina borrow from the fund so often?
It has had twenty-three arrangements since 1958, more than any other member. Repeated fiscal and currency crises have left it without reliable access to private markets.
Sources: Perfil, Prensa Mercosur and Diario Crónica, together with reporting on the February 2026 second review.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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