Gold and Silver Rebound but End the Week Lower on Fed Bets
Key Facts
- Gold settled at US$4,348.39 an ounce on Friday, September 11, 2026, a rise of 0.77% that still left it 1.8% lower on the week.
- Silver settled at US$64.39 an ounce, up 1.46% on the day, after Thursday’s 5.6% slide left it 2.7% down over the week.
- US inflation data released on Friday pushed market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise to roughly 90%, according to CME FedWatch.
- The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday, September 16, and the consensus is a rise to 4.00% from a range of 3.50% to 3.75%.
- Mexico is the world’s largest silver producer, at 6,300 tonnes in 2025, about 24% of global output, with Peru second at 3,600 tonnes.
- The catch: silver’s industrial cushion is thinning. Solar demand is forecast to fall 19% this year, to 151 million ounces.
Today’s Focus
Trade date: Friday, September 11, 2026. Spot gold settled at US$4,348.39 an ounce and silver at US$64.39, both rebounding after a steep Thursday fall.
The rebound hides a rough week. Gold lost 1.8% and silver 2.7%, and almost all of that damage was done in one Thursday session.
The cause was a repricing of US interest rates. August inflation data released on Friday showed prices up 3.4% from a year earlier and 0.4% on the month.
Markets now put the odds of a rate rise on Wednesday at roughly 90%. Higher rates lift the return on cash and bonds, which pay interest that metals do not.
What matters today. For Mexico and Peru, which mine almost four of every ten ounces of the world’s silver, Wednesday’s decision in Washington outweighs any mine news.
01 The session in one read
Spot gold ended Friday at US$4,348.39 an ounce, a gain of 0.77%. Silver closed at US$64.39, up 1.46%.
Both were recovering from a violent Thursday. Silver fell 5.6% in that single session and gold 1.8%, on hot producer-price data and a jump in oil.
The gold-to-silver ratio finished the week at 67.5 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. That is close to where it started, so neither metal broke away from the other.
Both metals are trading as interest-rate instruments rather than as scarce commodities. The US ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.974% on Friday, from 4.844% on Wednesday.
That move explains the weekly fall in gold better than anything happening at a mine. The variable to watch is Wednesday, and specifically the language rather than the number.
A rise already priced at roughly 90% does less damage than a signal that more will follow.
02 The board
Gold and silver both rose on Friday, but the weekly picture is what counts. Gold gave back 1.8% over the five sessions and silver 2.7%.
Mining shares split. Buenaventura, Peru’s largest listed precious-metals miner, added 0.56% after losing 4.35% on Thursday, while Pan American Silver slipped a further 0.61%.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot) | US$4,348.39/oz | +0.77% |
| Silver (spot) | US$64.39/oz | +1.46% |
| Gold-to-silver ratio | 67.5 | – |
| Buenaventura (BVN) | US$34.04 | +0.56% |
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) | US$50.34 | -0.61% |
| VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) | US$97.10 | +1.11% |
Trade date 2026-09-11. Metals are spot closes; equities are closing prices. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 187,206.89 | -0.56% | +21.85% | 188,268.59 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,220.60 | -0.16% | — | 11,238.58 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 63,924.77 | -0.28% | +12.17% | 64,106.82 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,098,898 | -1.87% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,589.69 | -1.41% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 59,373.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
The August consumer price index was the whole story. Headline inflation held at 3.4% from a year earlier, with a 0.4% monthly rise driven by a 3.9% jump in petrol prices.
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month. Its annual rate eased to 2.4%, a full point below the headline figure.
That split is why the market read the release as hawkish. Energy did the damage, and energy is what interest rates control least.
The Federal Reserve has held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% since June. Three of its voters dissented in July in favour of an increase, which is an unusually wide split.
Consensus now expects a rise to 4.00% on Wednesday. Brazil’s central bank decides hours later and is expected to cut its Selic rate to 13.75% from 14.00%.
Consumer sentiment added to the gloom. The University of Michigan’s preliminary September reading fell to 47.8, with households raising their inflation expectations.
04 The Latin American read
Mexico produced 6,300 tonnes of silver in 2025, about 24% of world supply, according to the US Geological Survey. Peru added 3,600 tonnes and holds the world’s largest silver reserves.
Bolivia and Chile follow, at 1,500 and 1,400 tonnes. Between them the four countries account for well over half of everything mined.
That concentration means a move in the silver price matters far more to the region than a move in gold. Silver at US$64.39 an ounce remains historically high despite the week’s fall.
The risk sits on the demand side. The Silver Institute expects a sixth consecutive supply deficit in 2026, but a much smaller one, at 46.3 million ounces.
Industrial buyers took 657.4 million ounces in 2025, about 58% of all demand, and that was down 3% on the year. Solar panels alone accounted for 186.6 million ounces.
Solar demand is forecast to drop 19% in 2026, to 151.0 million ounces, as manufacturers use less silver in each panel. That is the structural question hanging over Mexican and Peruvian output.
05 The names to watch
Fresnillo, listed in London and run from Mexico City, is the world’s largest primary silver producer. It mined 48.7 million ounces in 2025, down 13.5%, and guides to 42.0 to 46.5 million ounces this year.
Falling volumes have not hurt its accounts. First-half revenue reached US$3,382.6 million, up 74.7%, and profit more than tripled to US$1,463.4 million.
Buenaventura runs the Yumpag and Uchucchacua silver mines in Peru. Regulators approved a lift in Yumpag’s mining rate to 1,200 tonnes a day from 1,000 in July.
Its San Gabriel gold project is the weak point. Problems with tailings filtration and metal recovery forced the company to cut this year’s guidance for the mine.
Buenaventura also holds 19.58% of the Cerro Verde copper mine, which paid it US$117.5 million in July and US$274.1 million so far this year.
06 The outlook
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision is the only scheduled event that matters this week. An increase of 25 basis points to 4.00% is close to fully priced, so the projections and the statement will move prices more than the number.
Watch the US ten-year yield. If it pushes above 5%, gold will struggle to hold US$4,348 an ounce whatever mines produce.
For silver, the test is whether industrial buyers keep stepping in below US$65 an ounce. They did on Friday, when it recovered 1.46% after Thursday’s 5.6% slump.
07 What to watch
- Federal Reserve decision, Wednesday: Consensus is a rise to 4.00%, priced at roughly 90%. The new projections and the press conference will set the tone for both metals.
- Mexican markets closed Wednesday: September 16 is Independence Day in Mexico, so the world’s largest silver producer trades a short week around the Fed decision.
- US ten-year yield: It reached 4.974% on Friday. A move above 5% would raise the cost of holding metals that pay no interest.
- Peru’s artisanal mining register: Congress is debating a sixth extension of the REINFO scheme, which expires in December 2026 and covers part of national output.
- Mexican mining rules: The implementing regulation for the 2023 reform is still unpublished, and a bill to ban open-pit mining sits in Congress without a vote.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold and silver fall over the week?
US inflation data released on Friday, September 11, kept a Federal Reserve rate rise in view, lifting the ten-year Treasury yield to 4.974%. Gold lost 1.8% on the week and silver 2.7%, with most of the fall in Thursday’s session.
What is the gold-to-silver ratio saying?
The ratio finished Friday at 67.5 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold, little changed on the week. That tells investors neither metal broke away, and that both were moving on interest rates rather than on their own supply stories.
Which Latin American countries produce the most silver?
Mexico is the world’s largest producer at 6,300 tonnes in 2025, roughly 24% of global output, according to the US Geological Survey. Peru is second at 3,600 tonnes, followed by Bolivia at 1,500 tonnes and Chile at 1,400 tonnes.
Would a Federal Reserve rate rise push metals lower?
A 25 basis point increase to 4.00% on Wednesday, September 16, is already priced at roughly 90%, so the decision itself should move prices less than the statement that comes with it. What matters is whether officials signal more increases after this one.
Market data: RT spot and equity closes for Friday, September 11, 2026. Production data: US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, and the Silver Institute.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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