Panama’s 4.4% Growth Number Is a Forecast, Not a Measurement
PANAMA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What happened Finance Minister Felipe Chapman gave Panama’s fiscal and growth figures at an investor forum.
- —The growth figure 4.4% for 2026. It is an ECLAC projection, not a measured outcome.
- —The measured figure First-quarter output grew 4.8%, published by the statistics institute on 16 June.
- —The deficit 2,642 million balboas through July, equal to 2.78% of output.
- —The comparison That is down from 3.27% in the same period of 2025.
- —The currency point The balboa is pegged one to one with the US dollar, which circulates as legal tender.
The 4.4% figure now attached to Panama is a forecast quoted by a minister, not a statistic. The measured number and the fiscal number are both better than the forecast suggests.
Panama’s finance minister set out growth and deficit figures at an investor forum last week. One of the two numbers being repeated is a projection.
What Was Actually Released
Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapman spoke at the Latinex investor forum. The ministry issued its release on 11 September 2026.
Wire coverage picked it up on 14 September, which is why the figures read as new.
The deficit number is the ministry’s own. Through July 2026 the non-financial public sector deficit was 2,642 million balboas, equivalent to US$2.64 billion.
That equals 2.78% of output, against 3.27% in the same period of 2025. The improvement is real and it is measured.
Where the 4.4% Comes From
The growth figure is different in kind. It is a projection by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
The commission revised Panama up from 4.0% to 4.4% for 2026, and projects 4.6% for 2027.
A minister quoting a forecast at an investor event is entirely normal. Reporting that forecast as national accounts data is not.
The distinction matters because projections for Panama have moved repeatedly, and because the measured data tells a slightly different story.
What the Measured Data Shows
The statistics institute published first-quarter 2026 growth of 4.8% on 16 June 2026.
No second-quarter national accounts release was available at the time of writing.
The monthly activity indicator ran at 8.23% year on year in June and 5.19% in May. Those are volatile monthly readings rather than quarterly output.
Taken together, the measured evidence is of growth at or above the projection so far this year.
Why Panama Is Read Differently From Its Neighbours
Panama uses the United States dollar as circulating currency, alongside the balboa at par. There is no exchange rate risk of the kind that dominates Argentine or Bolivian analysis.
That removes one variable and sharpens another. Without a currency to devalue, fiscal discipline carries the whole adjustment burden.
It also means Panamanian interest rates track external conditions rather than a domestic central bank. Panama has no monetary authority issuing its own currency.
For an investor, the deficit path is therefore the number to watch. It is the main lever the state actually controls.
The Fiscal Question Behind the Numbers
Panama lost its investment-grade rating from one agency in 2024, and the others have kept it under scrutiny.
The deficit falling from 3.27% to 2.78% of output is the kind of movement the agencies look for. It is seven months of data, not a year.
The 2027 draft budget, still before the National Assembly, is the next test. It totals US$35.1 billion.
What Is Not Known
Second-quarter national accounts have not been published. The full-year outcome against the 4.4% projection cannot be assessed yet.
The ministry has not published a month-by-month deficit breakdown alongside the headline figure.
For readers tracking Panama, one rule avoids most of the confusion. Ask which institution produced a number and whether it describes the past or the future.
More: Panama news and analysis, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Panama grow 4.4%?
Not as a measured figure. 4.4% is an ECLAC projection for 2026 quoted by the finance minister.
What is the measured growth figure?
First-quarter 2026 output grew 4.8%, published by the statistics institute on 16 June 2026.
What is the deficit?
2,642 million balboas, about US$2.64 billion, through July 2026, equal to 2.78% of output.
Is that an improvement?
Yes. The same period of 2025 recorded 3.27%.
Where were the figures given?
By Finance Minister Felipe Chapman at the Latinex investor forum, in a ministry release of 11 September 2026.
Does Panama use the dollar?
Yes. The US dollar circulates as legal tender alongside the balboa, which is pegged at par.
Sources: Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo, CEPAL, La Prensa Panamá.
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