B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · March 24, 2026 · Covering March 23 Session
1
Trump’s five-day strike pause sends Brent crashing 10% and the Ibovespa surging 3.24%. On Truth Social, Trump said the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive” talks over the past two days and ordered the Department of War to postpone all attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. Brent June collapsed 9.86% to $95.92 — its biggest single-day drop since the war began. The Ibovespa rallied nearly 6,000 points from Friday’s 176,219 low, with only one stock (PRIO3, −2.53%) closing in the red.
2
Focus survey lifts year-end Selic to 12.50% and IPCA to 4.17% in the first post-Copom reading. The weekly Boletim Focus — the first after last week’s 25 bp cut to 14.75% — showed analysts raising the year-end Selic forecast from 12.25% to 12.50%, signalling expectations of a shallower easing cycle. IPCA was revised up from 4.10% to 4.17%, GDP nudged to 1.84%, and the dollar forecast held at R$5.40. The market is pricing the war-driven inflation impulse as persistent.
3
Wall Street reverses sharply higher — Dow +1.38%, S&P 500 +1.15% — on ceasefire momentum. U.S. equities staged their best session since March 10 as the five-day pause signal unwound war positioning. The Russell 2000 surged over 3%. European markets followed with the Stoxx 600 +0.61%. Asia was the outlier, having traded before the Trump announcement: Nikkei −3.48%, Hang Seng −3.54%. PETR4 was the most traded stock on B3 with 62,060 trades and R$2.83 billion in turnover, rising 0.81% despite the oil collapse on foreign flow support.
01Session Data
| Metric | Value | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa Close | 181,931.93 | +3.24% |
| USD/BRL | R$ 5.2407 | −1.29% |
| Brent Crude (Jun) | $95.92 | −9.86% |
| S&P 500 | 6,581.00 | +1.15% |
| DXY | ~99.30 | −0.2% |
| VIX | ~24.0 | −10.4% |
| Selic Rate | 14.75% | |
| Focus: Selic YE / IPCA | 12.50% / 4.17% | +25bp / +7bp |
Top Gainers
Top Losers
02Market Commentary
Today’s Ibovespa market report covers a session that reversed three weeks of war-driven losses in a single afternoon. The index surged 3.24% to 181,932 — recovering nearly 6,000 points from Friday’s 176,219 close — after Trump’s five-day attack pause transformed global risk appetite. Breadth was extraordinary: only PRIO3 closed in the red, dragged lower by Brent’s 10% collapse. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of B3 and Latin American financial markets.
The session opened with heavy selling inherited from Asia’s rout (Nikkei −3.48%, Hang Seng −3.54%), where markets traded before Trump’s announcement. The reversal came mid-morning as the ceasefire signal circulated, triggering aggressive short-covering across equities, FX, and commodities. The real rallied 1.29% to R$5.2407, and DI futures eased as the oil-driven inflation premium began to deflate. Petrobras held positive despite the crude crash on robust foreign inflows — PETR4 was the B3’s most traded stock with R$2.83 billion in turnover.
The Monday Boletim Focus confirmed the post-Copom recalibration: year-end Selic expectations rose to 12.50% and IPCA to 4.17%, reflecting the market’s view that the war-driven inflation impulse will slow the easing cycle. GDP was nudged up to 1.84%. The dollar forecast held at R$5.40. Wall Street reinforced the momentum with the Dow gaining 1.38% and the S&P 500 adding 1.15% as the Russell 2000 surged over 3% on the ceasefire signal. European markets joined the relief rally, with the Stoxx 600 closing up 0.61%.
03Technical Analysis
The hourly chart shows the Ibovespa closed at 181,932, reclaiming the Ichimoku cloud and Bollinger mid-band after spending all of last week below them. The MACD histogram at 766/569/197 is positive and rising — the strongest momentum reading since early March. RSI reads 59.61 on the fast line and 49.65 on the slow line, with the fast RSI’s push above 50 confirming the short-term momentum shift. Price is now sitting just below the Tenkan-sen at 181,296 and the Senkou Span cluster at 181,931–181,296.
The critical test is whether Tuesday can build on the breakout. The 184,147–184,374 zone (visible on the hourly as the upper Bollinger and a prior consolidation area) represents the next resistance cluster. A close above 184,000 would reclaim the March 5 breakdown level and confirm the rally as more than a short-covering bounce. On the downside, the 179,000–179,422 zone is now support — the former resistance that Monday’s rally cleared.
Support & Resistance
| Level | Points | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 184,374 | Upper Bollinger / prior high |
| Resistance 1 | 184,148 | March 5 breakdown level |
| Close | 181,932 | March 23, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 179,422 | Kijun-sen / prior resistance |
| Support 2 | 176,219 | Friday’s close / session low |
| Structural | 174,125 | 200-day SMA |
04Forward Look
Trump’s strike pause creates a five-day window for diplomacy. If talks produce a framework by Friday, the oil premium collapses further and the Ibovespa could push toward 186,000. If the pause expires without progress, expect a full reversal of Monday’s gains as Brent re-accelerates.
March manufacturing and services PMI are the week’s key macro data. Weak prints would boost rate-cut expectations and support the relief rally. Strong prints would reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative and cap upside.
CMIG4 goes ex-JCP on Tuesday (R$658 million distribution). Expect the stock to adjust lower at the open by the dividend per share amount. Earnings season’s final stretch continues with late reporters publishing throughout the week.
05Verdict
Monday’s 3.24% surge was the most convincing relief rally of the war period — near-universal breadth, a 10% oil collapse, and global equity participation all argue this was more than a dead-cat bounce. But the entire move rests on a five-day diplomatic window that could evaporate with a single headline. The Ibovespa has recovered 5,713 points from Friday’s 176,219 low but remains 11,000 points below the February 192,624 peak. The Focus survey’s hawkish shift (Selic YE to 12.50%, IPCA to 4.17%) confirms that even with the ceasefire signal, the market views the inflation damage as persistent.
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — ceasefire-dependent. A close above 184,148 confirms the recovery. A failure at that level or an expiry of the five-day pause without progress reinstates the bearish case and targets 176,219.