Ibovespa Retreats From Record as 15% Tariffs and AI Fears Hit
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B3 / Ibovespa Daily Report · February 24, 2026 · Covering February 23 Session This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian stock market and Latin American financial markets.
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The Big Three
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\nSection 122 tariffs at 15% take effect today — B3 reopens into a hostile overnight signal as Wall Street sold off sharply on Monday. The Dow dropped 822 points (−1.66%), the S&P 500 shed 1.04%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.13% as AI disruption fears (IBM −13% on Claude Code launch) collided with the tariff escalation. The European Parliament paused ratification of its US trade deal. The Ibovespa must absorb this pressure at today’s open from its all-time high perch.
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\nBrazil’s net tariff math tilts positive despite the 15% headline — the struck-down IEEPA levies that had hit Brazilian exports were higher than the replacement rate. The SCOTUS ruling unlocks potential refunds exceeding $100 billion to US importers, while the Section 122 surcharge carries a 150-day hard limit. Treasury Secretary Bessent conceded the replacement authorities are “not as efficient.” For B3 exporters like Vale and the steel complex, this is structurally constructive even if the headlines are noisy.
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\nMonday’s BCB Focus survey delivered a dovish shift: 2026 IPCA expectations fell from 3.95% to 3.91% and the year-end Selic forecast dropped from 12.25% to 12.13%. Both revisions feed directly into the March 17–18 Copom calculus and keep the base case of an easing cycle intact. With the BRL holding near 5.18 — its strongest since May 2024 — the carry trade reinforcement and falling inflation expectations provide a structural floor for equity valuations, even as the index digests its first down session in a week.
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01Session Data
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| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa Close | 188,853.49 | −0.88% |
| Session High | 191,002.54 | new ATH intraday |
| Session Low | 188,525.73 | −1.05% from open |
| USD/BRL | 5.1830 | +0.10% |
| DXY | 97.71 | −0.08% |
| S&P 500 (prev) | 6,837.75 | −1.04% |
| Dow Jones (prev) | 48,804.06 | −1.66% |
| Nasdaq (prev) | 22,627.27 | −1.13% |
| VIX | 21.28 | +11.47% |
| Brent Crude | $70.49 | −1.14% |
| Iron Ore (62% Fe) | $99.27 | flat |
| Gold | $5,180.00 | +1.95% |
| Bitcoin | $64,310 | −4.58% |
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Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.30%
175,664.62
+0.30%
65,484.32
-0.53%
11,445.90
-0.22%
2,979,472
-0.72%
2,457.87
-1.28%
60,779.49
-1.40%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 175,664.62 | +0.30% | +21.85% | 175,135.41 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
02Key Movers
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| Stock | Sector | Change | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vale (VALE3) | Mining | +0.59% | Iron ore resilience; tariff net-positive |
| Itaú (ITUB4) | Banks | −1.20% | Profit-taking after Friday’s bank rally |
| Bradesco (BBDC4) | Banks | −0.80% | Gave back Friday’s tariff-relief gains |
| Eletrobras (ELET3) | Utilities | −1.50% | Rate-sensitive names sold on US yield fears |
| Petrobras (PETR4) | Oil & Gas | −1.38% | Oil prices fell as Iran tensions de-escalated |
| Ambev (ABEV3) | Consumer | −0.57% | Consumer tariff headwind; risk-off session |
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03Market Commentary
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The Ibovespa fell 0.88% to 188,853 on Monday — retreating from Friday’s all-time record close of 190,534 — as the index absorbed Trump’s weekend escalation of global tariffs to 15% and a brutal Wall Street selloff driven by AI disruption fears. The session opened at 190,532, briefly touched a new all-time intraday high of 191,003, then sold off steadily to a low of 188,526 before closing near the lows. The reversal from intraday ATH to a nearly 1% loss tells the story: the early bid on residual SCOTUS optimism evaporated as US futures turned deeply negative and the 15% tariff reality settled in.
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The damage was concentrated in rate-sensitive and export-exposed names. Banks gave back a portion of Friday’s tariff-relief rally, while Petrobras fell 1.38% as Brent crude dropped 1.14% to $70.49. The broader selling was orderly rather than panicked — volume was consistent with a post-record profit-taking session compounded by negative external signals rather than a structural unwind. The BRL told a nuanced story: after trading in negative territory (stronger real) for most of the session and touching near R$5.15, the dollar flipped positive in the final minutes to close at R$5.183 (+0.10%). The late reversal diverged from the DXY, which fell 0.08% to 97.71 as Treasury yields dropped over 6bp along the curve. Nomad’s Bruno Shahini noted the global dollar weakness reflected expectations that the 15% tariff replacement — lower for many countries including Brazil — could ease US inflationary pressures and open space for Fed cuts.
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Gold surged 1.95% to $5,180 as safe-haven demand accelerated, while Bitcoin cratered 4.58% to $64,310 — extending its nearly 50% freefall from the October $126,000 peak. In New York, the carnage was more acute: the Dow plunged 822 points (−1.66%), the S&P 500 shed 1.04% (slipping into the red for 2026), and the Nasdaq dropped 1.13%. IBM cratered 13% after Anthropic launched Claude Code Security, sparking an AI disruption panic that hammered software stocks — Microsoft fell 3%, CrowdStrike dropped nearly 10%, and Salesforce continued its 2026 collapse. A viral Citrini Research report modeling 10.2% unemployment by 2028 from AI displacement fueled the selling. The VIX spiked 11.5% to 21.28, its highest level in weeks.
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For the Ibovespa, the relative outperformance is notable: down 0.88% versus the S&P’s 1.04% and the Dow’s 1.66%. The SCOTUS ruling remains a structural positive — CNBC confirmed that Brazil, China, and India will see trade-weighted tariffs decline under the new regime, while the UK, EU, and Singapore face higher effective rates. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s concession that Section 122 is “not as efficient” as IEEPA reinforces the temporary, weaker nature of the replacement tariffs. Domestically, the BCB Focus survey delivered a dovish tilt: 2026 IPCA expectations were revised down from 3.95% to 3.91%, and the year-end Selic projection fell from 12.25% to 12.13%. Both readings support the easing-cycle narrative and kept the DI curve well-behaved despite the equity pullback. The index’s ability to hold above 188,500 — within striking distance of the Tenkan-sen at 187,782 — is constructive for the medium-term trend.
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04Technical Analysis
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Daily (1D):
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The Ibovespa closed at 188,853, right near the upper Bollinger Band (~188,854), after touching a new intraday ATH of 191,003 before reversing. The index remains firmly above all Ichimoku cloud components: the Tenkan-sen sits near 187,782, the Kijun-sen at 182,132, while Senkou Span A and B are at 178,013 and 173,095 respectively — all comfortably below price. The 200-SMA at 149,454 underscores the magnitude of the structural uptrend. MACD remains bullish with the signal lines at 5,471/5,211, though the histogram has flattened to −260, suggesting momentum deceleration. RSI reads 70.89/66.91 — near overbought territory but starting to work off the extreme. The Bollinger Band width has expanded as price tests the upper envelope, with the mid-band at 184,699 and the lower at 177,289.
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The price structure remains in a textbook Ichimoku bullish alignment: price above the cloud, Tenkan above Kijun, and the future cloud (Senkou Span A > B) projecting higher. The key risk is the RSI divergence — while price made a new high, the RSI at 70.89 is below the readings from the prior February 11 record at 190,561 intraday, creating a potential bearish divergence that warrants monitoring.
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| Level | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 195,000 | Psychological + upper BB extension |
| Resistance 2 | 191,385 | Chart high (visible) |
| Resistance 1 | 191,003 | ATH intraday (Feb 23) |
| Support 1 | 187,782 | Tenkan-sen (daily) |
| Support 2 | 184,699 | Bollinger mid-band (20-SMA) |
| Support 3 | 182,132 | Kijun-sen (daily) |
| Support 4 | 178,013 | Senkou Span A (cloud top) |
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05Forward Look
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Section 122 Tariffs (effective Feb 24).
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The 15% global surcharge takes effect today. While far lower than the struck-down IEEPA tariffs, it still represents a headwind for Brazilian exporters — particularly steel and agricultural commodities. Markets will be watching for carve-outs and exemptions, as the executive order already excludes certain critical minerals, energy products, and some agricultural goods. The 150-day statutory limit makes this inherently temporary, but the signaling effect keeps trade policy risk firmly in the conversation.
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State of the Union (Tuesday evening).
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Trump addresses Congress on Tuesday night, where trade policy details are expected. Any indication of sector-specific tariffs, exemptions for EM partners, or escalation against China would move B3 names directly. Nvidia reports earnings this week — the result will set the tone for the global AI narrative that is currently crushing software stocks and spilling into broader risk appetite.
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Copom and Rate Path. The March 17–18 Copom meeting remains the next major domestic catalyst. With Selic at 15% and January IPCA at 4.44% year-on-year, the real-yield spread continues to attract carry flows. The market’s base case remains a 25bp cut, though a 50bp start has not been ruled out if the BRL maintains its strength and commodity prices cooperate. The Ibovespa’s sensitivity to rate expectations makes every inflation data point and BCB commentary a potential mover.
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Key Facts
— Monday’s 0.88% pullback was a healthy correction from ATH territory — the Ibovespa touched 191,003 intraday (a new all-time high) before gravity took hold. The fact that the index held above 188,500 despite a Dow plunge of 822 points and a VIX spike to 21.28 speaks to the structural bid underneath Brazilian equities. The BRL’s late-session reversal to R$5.183 (+0.10%) was a minor blemish, but the intraday trade near R$5.15 and the global dollar’s weakness (DXY −0.08%) confirm the carry trade thesis remains intact.
— The tariff picture is net-positive for Brazil, even if headlines scream chaos. CNBC confirmed that Brazil’s trade-weighted tariffs decline under the new 15% Section 122 regime versus the struck-down IEEPA rates. The 150-day hard limit, Bessent’s “not as efficient” admission, and Congress’s reluctance to extend all point to a fading headwind. The structural story — R$34B+ in foreign flows, forward P/E near 9.25, and BRL near 5.18 — remains intact.
— The Tenkan-sen at 187,782 is first support. If the index holds above it on Tuesday, the consolidation zone of 188,000–191,000 becomes the new range. A break below risks a test of the Bollinger mid-band at 184,699, which would still be a normal retracement within the bull trend. The RSI at 70.89 is starting to work off overbought conditions without a damaging decline — textbook constructive digestion.
— Bias: Moderately Bullish on the weekly structure; Neutral on the daily as the index digests ATH. Dip-buyers likely emerge at 188,000.
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For broader market context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for this date.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
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