Ibovespa Extends Rally to Fourth Day as Inflation Data Fuels Market Optimism
The Ibovespa index is trading at 133,425.38 points as of 9:45 AM BRT (6:45 AM GMT) on Friday, showing a 0.21% gain from Thursday’s close, extending its upward momentum to a fourth consecutive session amid positive inflation data and strong commodity prices.
The Brazilian stock market closed higher on Thursday, with the Ibovespa rising 0.47% to 133,148.75 points—marking its highest level since September 2024. The benchmark index continued to show resilience, buoyed by better-than-expected inflation data and central bank commitment to controlling inflation.
The USD/BRL exchange rate ended Thursday at R$ 5.7533, advancing 0.36% as the greenback strengthened moderately against the Brazilian real.
Overnight Market Developments
United States
Wall Street ended Thursday’s session with losses as investors continued to digest Trump’s tariff announcements. The Dow Jones fell 0.37% to 42,299.70 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.33% to 5,693.31 points, and the Nasdaq declined 0.53% to 17,804.03 points, with automotive stocks among the hardest hit except for Tesla.
Asia
Asian markets were mixed overnight, with Japanese indices declining slightly while Chinese stocks rebounded on stimulus hopes. The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.3%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.8%.
Europe
European markets opened marginally higher this morning, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2% as of this writing, as traders weigh global trade concerns against improving domestic economic data.
Key Market Drivers
The primary catalyst for the Ibovespa’s continued strength has been the positive surprise from the IPCA-15 inflation preview, which showed a deceleration greater than market expectations. This reinforces the central bank’s commitment to controlling inflation and potentially allows for a more accommodative monetary policy path.
“The inflation data has brought significant relief to the market,” notes Carlos Menezes, chief economist at BTG Pactual. “With the IPCA-15 coming in below consensus, we’re seeing reduced pressure on the Copom to accelerate rate hikes, which is positive for equities.”
Additionally, commodity prices remain supportive, with Brent crude gaining 0.38% to $73.34 on Thursday and iron ore futures advancing 1.28% to $108.55 per ton. This has boosted heavyweight stocks like Petrobras and Vale, which ended Thursday up nearly 1%.
Top Gainers and Losers
Top 5 Gainers
1. JBS SA (JBSS3): Up 5.83% to R$ 41.95, reaching an all-time high amid strong global protein demand and positive outlook for the sector.
2. Cogna Educação (COGN3): Surged after Bradesco BBI expressed a positive view of the company following meetings with executives. Analysts expect double-digit growth in both revenue and EBITDA for 2025.
3. Petrobras (PETR4): Up 0.97% to R$ 40.63, supported by higher oil prices and improved operational outlook.
4. Ambev (ABEV3): Gained 0.44% to R$ 13.60 as consumer staples continue to attract defensive positioning.
5. Vale (VALE3): Rose 0.33% to R$ 57.34, benefiting from higher iron ore prices in China.
Top 5 Losers
1. CVC Brasil (CVCB3): Among the biggest decliners as investors reacted to mixed analyst views on the company’s Q4 2024 results.
2. Multiplan (MULT3): Facing pressure as consumer spending concerns weigh on shopping mall operators.
3. Azul (AZUL4): Down on heightened global trade tensions and potential impact on travel demand.
4. Magazine Luiza (MGLU3): Declining as retail sector faces headwinds from high interest rates.
5. BRF (BRFS3): Lagging despite the positive performance of its sector peer JBS.
Trading Volumes and Foreign Flows
Trading volume on B3 reached approximately R$ 12.3 billion on Thursday, representing a modest increase from Wednesday’s session. Foreign investors continue to show interest in Brazilian equities despite a recent correction in foreign investment figures.
B3 recently adjusted its 2025 foreign investment figures downward by R$ 3 billion, revealing a February calculation error. The adjustment reduces the year-to-date total from R$ 14.3 billion to R$ 11.6 billion. Despite this correction, 2025 still shows significant inflows compared to 2024’s R$ 24.2 billion outflow.
“Foreign investors remain cautiously optimistic about Brazilian assets,” says Renata Vieira, chief strategist at Santander Brasil. “The correction in flow data is a technical issue rather than a shift in sentiment, and we continue to see allocation interest based on attractive valuations.”
Technical Analysis
The Ibovespa’s technical picture continues to strengthen:
- The index has successfully established support above 133,000 points, with the next resistance at 134,500.
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 58, in neutral territory with an upward bias.
- The index remains above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, confirming a positive medium-term trend.
- Volume has been increasing on up days, suggesting robust buying interest.
The Brazil ETF Volatility Index currently stands at 30.22, down 0.33% from the previous session, indicating stabilizing market uncertainty but still elevated compared to historical averages.
Market Outlook
Analysts project the Ibovespa to trade between 132,500 and 134,500 points in the short term. The index has gained 9.80% year-to-date, reflecting improved confidence in Brazilian assets.
“We’re witnessing a significant technical breakout after the index consolidated around the 130,000 level for several weeks,” explains Paulo Santos, technical analyst at XP Investimentos. “The combination of positive macroeconomic surprises and global commodity strength could push the Ibovespa toward 136,000 in the coming weeks.”
While the positive momentum continues, investors remain vigilant about global trade tensions following Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported products, particularly affecting automotive stocks globally.
With the Brazil Stock Market expected to trade at 132,040.61 by the end of this quarter according to Trading Economics models, the current performance suggests the index is already outperforming these projections, potentially setting the stage for further gains if supportive conditions persist.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
+0.00%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide
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