Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for March 28, 2025
Brazilian markets face a critical day today, shaped by key domestic economic releases that will provide deep insights into inflation trends, labor market dynamics, and economic resilience amid global uncertainties.
At 07:00 AM (BRT), the IGP-M Inflation Index for March will reveal the latest trends in wholesale, consumer, and construction inflation, a crucial indicator for gauging price pressures that could influence the Central Bank’s monetary policy stance.
At 08:00 AM (BRT), the Unemployment Rate for February will shed light on labor market health, a key factor for consumer spending and economic growth prospects.
Later, at 01:30 PM (BRT), the CAGED Net Payroll Jobs data for February will offer a snapshot of formal job creation, reflecting business confidence and economic momentum.
These indicators matter significantly as they collectively signal Brazil’s internal economic stability and capacity to weather external pressures, such as global trade tensions and commodity price volatility.
The IGP-M data will inform expectations for inflation control measures, while employment figures will influence investor sentiment on domestic demand.
Following recent Central Bank forecasts of a 1.9% GDP growth for 2025 (down from 2.1%), today’s releases could either reinforce or challenge monetary policy outlooks.
Globally, U.S. data including the Core PCE Price Index at 08:30 AM (EST) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM (EST) will shape perceptions of U.S. inflation and consumer confidence, impacting demand for Brazil’s commodity exports.
In Europe, the UK’s Q4 GDP at 03:00 AM (CET) and Germany’s Unemployment Change at 03:55 AM (CET) will affect global growth and risk sentiment, potentially influencing Brazil’s currency and trade flows.
Economic Agenda for March 28, 2025
Brazil
07:00 AM – IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 1.06%. Tracks wholesale, consumer, and construction inflation, a key input for monetary policy decisions.
08:00 AM – Unemployment Rate (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 6.5%. Measures labor market strength, critical for assessing domestic economic health.
01:30 PM – CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 137.30K. Reflects formal job growth, signaling business activity and economic momentum.
United Kingdom
03:00 AM – GDP (QoQ) (Q4): Actual TBD, consensus 0.1%, previous 0.0%. Quarterly growth data influencing global economic sentiment and trade dynamics.
Germany
03:55 AM – German Unemployment Change (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 10K, previous 5K. Tracks labor market shifts in Europe’s largest economy, affecting Eurozone outlook.
United States
08:30 AM – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.3%, previous 0.3%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, impacting monetary policy expectations.
08:30 AM – Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb): Actual TBD, consensus 0.6%, previous -0.2%. Indicates U.S. consumer demand, a driver for Brazil’s export markets.
10:00 AM – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 57.9, previous 64.7. Reflects U.S. consumer outlook, influencing global risk appetite.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market closed higher on Thursday, with the Ibovespa rising 0.47% to 133,148.75 points—its highest level since September 2024.
As of 9:45 AM (BRT) today, it trades at 133,425.38 points, up 0.21% from Thursday’s close, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains driven by positive inflation data and strong commodity prices.
However, the Brazilian real faced pressure, with the USD/BRL exchange rate climbing beyond R$5.76, reflecting accelerated capital flight amid concerns over potential export tariffs.
This currency weakening contrasts with the stock market’s resilience, highlighting divergent responses to domestic and global dynamics.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street edged lower on Thursday after being pulled in opposite directions by President Donald Trump’s latest tariff escalation, creating winners and losers among auto stocks.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after drifting between small gains and losses throughout the day, supported by better-than-expected economic data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 155 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5%.
General Motors sank 7.4%—one of the market’s sharper losses—after Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported cars, with Ford Motor dropping 3.9%.
Even U.S. automakers feel supply chain pressures from such tariffs, despite Trump’s push for domestic manufacturing.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Crude oil extends its rally despite tariff tensions, as reported in the March 28 market report, supporting Brazil’s Petrobras and bolstering export revenues.
Gold Prices
Gold surges past $3,085, fueled by trade tensions and central bank buying, benefiting Brazil’s mining sector amid a record rally.
Copper Prices
Copper retreats from record highs as tariff concerns drive market volatility, yet remains a key strength for Brazil’s export outlook.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets face pressure, with Bitcoin testing support levels and altcoins plunging, influencing Brazil’s fintech sentiment on March 28.
Companies and Market
Central Bank
Brazil’s Central Bank forecasts a tougher economic outlook, with 2025 GDP at +1.9%, a current account deficit of -$62 billion, and a trade balance of +$61 billion, shaping monetary policy expectations.
Industry
Global Eggs’ acquisition of U.S.-based Hillandale Farms positions Brazil as an emerging powerhouse in the global egg market.
Consumer Confidence
An inflation spike signals tough times ahead, though wealthy Brazilians partially offset broader consumer struggles.
Economic Outlook
Capital flight accelerates amid potential export tariffs, pushing the USD/BRL beyond R$5.76, challenging Brazil’s economic stability.
IMC
Bets on a partner to lift KFC Brazil from debt, reflecting strategic shifts.
CVC
Posts a strong Q4 recovery, signaling a tourism sector comeback.
Simpar
Turnaround reflects a shift to stability in logistics and transport.
Americanas
Reports a R$586 million loss in Q4 2024, highlighting retail sector challenges.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,110.57
+0.26%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
+0.00%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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