Guyana debt burden falls as IDB calls it one of the world’s fastest-growing economies
GUYANA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
—What happened: The IDB says Guyana’s debt burden is falling even as the government borrows more for infrastructure.
—The numbers: Debt service now takes five cents of every revenue dollar, down from seven before oil.
—The jobs: Unemployment fell from 14.5 percent in 2021 to 6.8 percent in 2024.
—The growth: GDP rose 19.3 percent in 2025, and even non-oil growth hit 15 percent.
—The catch: The same IDB warns Guyana’s outlook is highly uncertain because it depends on oil.
—What comes next: The IMF sees growth peaking at 22.1 percent in 2028, then fading to 1.1 percent by 2031.
The Guyana debt burden is shrinking while the economy and the job market power ahead, the Inter-American Development Bank says. The catch is that the boom still rests almost entirely on oil.
Five cents of every dollar
The finding comes from the IDB’s latest Caribbean Economics Quarterly. Before oil production began, Guyana spent about seven cents of every dollar of government revenue on debt payments.
That figure has fallen to roughly five cents. The decline came even as the government borrowed more to build roads, schools and other infrastructure.
The report was released over the weekend and covers the Caribbean’s main economies. It treats Guyana as the clearest case of resource revenues outpacing new borrowing.
“Guyana remains a low-debt case, driven by continued strong resource revenues, making it an outlier within the sample,” the bank said.
The Guyana debt trend runs against the regional current. The Bahamas, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago entered 2025 with debt burdens materially higher than in 2019.
From one in seven to fewer than one in fourteen
The labour market has improved just as sharply. Unemployment fell from 14.5 percent in the third quarter of 2021 to 6.8 percent in the same period of 2024.
Put differently, roughly one in seven working-age Guyanese was unemployed in 2021. By 2024 the figure was fewer than one in fourteen.
The country itself is changing shape. The population has grown from about 700,000 a decade ago to roughly 900,000 today.
The economy expanded 19.3 percent in 2025, after growing 43.8 percent in 2024. Commercial oil production began only in late 2019.
Nor is it all crude. Non-oil growth reached 15 percent in 2025, up from 13 percent the year before.
The IMF path peaks in 2028
The report cites International Monetary Fund projections for the years ahead. Growth is forecast at 16.2 percent in 2026, then 19.7 percent in 2027.
The peak comes in 2028 at 22.1 percent. After that, expansion moderates to 12.8 percent in 2029 and 11.5 percent in 2030.
Then the curve bends sharply. Growth slows to just 1.1 percent in 2031 as oil production stabilizes.
That single number explains why the Guyana debt story matters so much. Low debt today buys room for the leaner decade after the peak.
The oil caveat
The IDB itself has sounded this warning before. Earlier this year it called Guyana’s outlook highly uncertain because of the country’s dependence on oil.
Georgetown is spending as if it heard the warning. Its 2026 budget of US$1.65 billion pushes money into solar power and a gas partnership with Trinidad.
Diversification is the stated goal. The 15 percent non-oil growth rate suggests the strategy is starting to work.
What to watch from here
First, watch the non-oil share. A boom that spreads beyond petroleum is the only kind that outlives the wells.
Second, watch the debt-service ratio. If five cents starts climbing back toward seven, the borrowing is outrunning the oil.
Third, watch 2031. Every forecast in this story is a bridge to that year, when the oil curve flattens and the Guyana debt cushion gets its real test.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Guyana debt burden really falling?
Yes. The IDB’s Caribbean Economics Quarterly shows debt service taking about five cents of every revenue dollar, down from seven cents before oil production, despite increased borrowing for infrastructure.
Why does the IDB call Guyana a low-debt case?
The bank says continued strong resource revenues keep Guyana’s debt low, making it an outlier in the region. The Bahamas, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago all entered 2025 with higher debt burdens than in 2019.
How fast is Guyana’s economy growing?
GDP grew 19.3 percent in 2025 after 43.8 percent in 2024, and non-oil growth reached 15 percent. IMF projections see 16.2 percent growth in 2026, peaking at 22.1 percent in 2028.
What is happening to unemployment in Guyana?
Unemployment fell from 14.5 percent in the third quarter of 2021 to 6.8 percent in the same period of 2024. That is a drop from one in seven working-age people to fewer than one in fourteen.
What is the biggest risk to Guyana’s boom?
Oil dependence. The IMF projects growth slowing to 1.1 percent by 2031 as production stabilizes, and the IDB has called the outlook highly uncertain for the same reason.
Connected Coverage
The bank’s earlier warning is in IDB calls the Guyana outlook highly uncertain on oil risk.
The spending side is in Guyana approves a US$1.65 billion budget and widens its energy bet.
Sources: IDB Caribbean Economics Quarterly via Caribbean National Weekly; IMF projections cited therein; The Rio Times archive.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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