Guarani’s Sudden Surge: Dollar Faces Relentless Pressure in Paraguay

TradingView charts confirm that the Paraguayan Guarani maintained its remarkable strength against the US dollar into July 11, 2025.

The USD/PGY rate stabilized at 7,725 after a dramatic decline from 7,980 since June 26. The market’s sharp move, visible on the daily chart, stands out for its speed and persistence, as the Guarani rallied and the dollar lost ground.

Official market data show the price hovered near 7,725 throughout the last 24 hours. The session saw low volatility, with no significant reversal or bounce.

The dollar index (DXY) posted a modest gain, but this did not translate into dollar strength in Paraguay. Instead, the Guarani’s position remained firm, reflecting unique local market dynamics.

Technical analysis highlights the extraordinary nature of the move. The daily chart shows the price well below the Ichimoku cloud, a clear sign of a bearish trend for the dollar.

The 9-day moving average now acts as a ceiling, and the price touched it without breaking higher. The 50-day moving average approaches the 200-day average, but a death cross has not occurred.

The market waits for this signal, which could bring further selling if it happens. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 18.50, deep in oversold territory since June 30.

This reading signals extreme bearish momentum for the dollar and suggests the market has not yet found a floor. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also stays negative, with no sign of a reversal.

Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting heightened volatility, but price action remains pinned to the lower band. Market participants report thin liquidity and a lack of large flows.

No evidence points to major central bank intervention, but cautious trading prevails. Official sources confirm that volumes remain light, and no significant ETF inflows or outflows have been recorded in the past day.

Macroeconomic fundamentals support the Guarani’s resilience. Paraguay’s disciplined monetary policy and strong agricultural export performance have provided a solid foundation.

The US dollar’s global weakness, reflected in the DXY, adds to the pressure. Local demand for dollars remains subdued, and no fresh drivers emerged overnight.

Support and resistance levels have shifted. The 7,700 level now acts as a key support, with resistance at the 9-day moving average near 7,727. The market watches these levels closely, as a break could trigger new momentum.

The story of the last 24 hours is one of consolidation after a rare and powerful move. The Guarani’s strength has not faded, and technical indicators show no clear sign of reversal.

Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders waiting for new signals before taking positions. The fundamentals continue to favor the Guarani, and the technical picture suggests the dollar’s challenges are not over.

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