Gold Surges Past $3,085: Trade Tensions and Central Bank Buying Fuel Record Rally

Gold is trading at $3,085 per ounce in the morning session on March 28, 2025, continuing its impressive bull run and building on yesterday’s momentum. The precious metal has maintained strong upward pressure after reaching a series of all-time highs in recent weeks.

Trading volumes remain elevated at 4,214 contracts, compared to the average of 3,971. This morning’s price represents a slight retreat from the early morning peak of $3,122.9 recorded at 02:55 GMT.

Price Movement (Last 24 Hours):

• Current Price: $3,085
• Day Range: $3,066.8 – $3,123.4
• Change: +24 (+0.78% from previous close)
• YTD Performance: +15.28%

Previous Day and Overnight Activity

Gold experienced significant volatility on March 27, with spot prices jumping more than 1% to $3,053, coming close to the all-time high of $3,057.21 established on March 20. U.S. gold futures followed suit, climbing 1.3% to $3,062.

The precious metal rallied strongly throughout the day as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating global trade tensions.

Overnight trading saw continued momentum, with gold trading within a tight range between $3,113.4 and $3,122.9 during the early hours of March 28.

The market experienced a brief dip around 01:15 GMT to $3,082.6 before recovering and continuing its upward trajectory. This overnight resilience demonstrates persistent buying interest despite the already elevated price levels.

Global Gold Markets

COMEX/NYMEX (New York):

The U.S. futures market has maintained its position as a crucial price discovery mechanism for gold, with April contracts attracting significant interest. Trading volume has remained substantially above average at 20,231 contracts versus the typical 4,034, indicating heightened market participation.

London Bullion Market:

The OTC gold market in London continues to serve as the global benchmark through the LBMA Gold Price, maintaining its status as the “terminal market” with its established vaulting infrastructure. Trading volumes remain steady as the twice-daily fix continues to influence global gold pricing.

Shanghai Gold Exchange:

As the world’s largest purely physical spot exchange, the SGE has seen increased activity as Chinese investors demonstrate strong interest in gold as a store of value amid economic uncertainties. Physical demand remains robust, particularly during overnight sessions following New York’s close.

Indian Markets:

In Mumbai, 22-carat gold was priced at Rs 82,360 per 10 grams this morning, while 24-carat gold stood at Rs 89,850 per 10 grams. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold traded at Rs 88,445 per 10 grams. India’s gold market continues to show resilience despite high prices, with consistent demand from both urban and rural buyers.

Vietnam/Asia:

Vietnamese gold prices surged dramatically, with gold bars and rings exceeding the 100 million VND/tael mark. DOJI Group listed SJC gold bars at 98.4-100.4 million VND/tael (buy-sell), representing increases of 1 million and 1.5 million VND respectively from yesterday. This reflects strong regional demand and local economic factors driving Asian gold markets.

Market Drivers

Geopolitical Tensions:

President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars, scheduled to take effect after April 2, has significantly escalated global trade tensions. This move has prompted warnings of retaliation from governments worldwide, from Ottawa to Paris, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

Central Bank Demand:

Large Asian central banks continue aggressive gold purchases, with current demand estimates revised upward to 70 tonnes per month from previous projections of 50 tonnes. This sustained institutional buying provides significant support for gold prices.

ETF Inflows:

Gold-backed ETFs have seen approximately $4 billion in inflows over the past week and more than $5 billion since the beginning of 2025. Year-to-date, holdings have increased by 107.5 tonnes, reversing the outflows seen in early 2024. The SPDR Gold Trust has been a major contributor, adding 32 tonnes and leading North American demand.

U.S. Economic Data:

Investors are closely watching today’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for further insights into the Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy direction. Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later this year, with Goldman Sachs analysts projecting two 25-basis-point Fed cuts in 2025.

Expert Quotes and Forecasts

“It appears we are on track to see gold futures reach $3,100 soon, primarily due to safe-haven buying driven by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff initiatives,” noted Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, commenting on yesterday’s price action.

Goldman Sachs raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce from $3,100, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand. The investment bank also revised its forecast range upward to $3,250-$3,520.

ANZ analysts maintain their bullish stance, stating: “We maintain our bullish stance on gold, though a consolidation is possible after the recent swift rally towards $3,040/oz”.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s price action indicates continued bullish momentum despite approaching overbought conditions. The psychological $3,000 barrier, once a major resistance level, now serves as strong support, confirming the bulls’ control over the trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to rise, indicating strong momentum despite approaching overbought territory. This suggests potential for short-term consolidation while maintaining the overall uptrend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, supporting the bullish outlook, while key support levels include recent lows around $3,010-$3,020. A breakout above $3,100 could potentially signal another leg higher toward the $3,200 level.

Future Outlook

The gold market outlook remains decidedly bullish, with multiple factors supporting higher prices through 2025. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and strong physical demand from both central banks and retail investors are expected to maintain upward pressure on prices.

With Goldman Sachs and other major institutions raising their forecasts, the $3,300 level appears to be a reasonable target for year-end. However, investors should remain alert to short-term volatility and potential consolidation phases as the market digests recent gains.

As the trading day progresses, market participants will pay close attention to the PCE data release and any further developments regarding global trade policies, which could introduce additional volatility into the precious metals market.

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