Gold Holds $5,055, Silver Surges 3.8% Ahead of NFP

Key Facts

— Gold edged higher on Tuesday, closing at $5,055 after briefly touching $5,069 intraday, as softer-than-expected January retail sales data pushed the US dollar lower and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice this year.

— This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of precious metals markets and Latin American financial markets.

— The DXY index slipped to 96.8, extending its decline below the psychologically important 97 level, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.9 basis points to 4.16%.

— China’s central bank continued its gold accumulation campaign for a sixteenth consecutive month, with the World Gold Council projecting central bank purchases near 850 tonnes for 2026.

— Despite the constructive backdrop, the session was notably subdued — a “snoozer” in the words of OANDA’s market wrap — as traders positioned cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s delayed Non-Farm Payrolls release.

— Silver was the standout performer, surging 3.76% to close at $83.78 — its strongest single-session gain in over a week. The move extends the remarkable recovery from the historic crash that saw prices collapse from the $121 record high on January 29 to lows near $68 in early February.

— The Silver Institute released its 2026 outlook, confirming a sixth consecutive annual market deficit with mine production expected at 820 Moz against surging industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI data center infrastructure.

— JP Morgan’s Global Research team projects silver averaging $81/oz this year — more than double its 2025 average — while Bank of America’s long-term structural target of $309 continues to anchor the bull case.

— The gold/silver ratio compressed to approximately 60.3, down from 61.5 in the prior session, signaling renewed industrial metal outperformance. Brent crude rose 1.56% to $69.11 as traders monitored US-Iran developments, while the S&P 500 gained 0.47% to close at 6,965.

— The VIX ticked up slightly to 17.76, reflecting pre-NFP hedging demand. UBS maintained their view that the late-January sell-off was a “positioning shakeout, not a regime change,” while JP Morgan reiterated their year-end gold target of $6,300, describing gold as a “dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge” in the current macro environment.

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Key Facts

— Daily: Gold closed at $5,055 after a steady session that saw prices trade in a tight $5,024–$5,069 range. The daily Ichimoku cloud remains supportive with price trading well above both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

— The Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, confirming the bullish trend structure. The daily RSI reads 65.93/57.69 — bullish but not yet overbought, leaving room for further upside. The MACD is positive at 138.27/121.50, though the histogram at −16.77 shows slight momentum deceleration.

— The 200-day baseline sits near $4,871, far below current price, confirming the dominant multi-month uptrend. Key resistance at $5,374 (Senkou Span B area), with the all-time high at $5,595 as the ultimate target.

— 4-Hour: The 4H chart shows gold consolidating near the top of the Ichimoku cloud, with the Senkou Span B at $5,125 acting as near-term resistance. Price is hovering around $5,055, with immediate support at $5,040 and $5,033.

— The 4H MACD is positive at 30.48/26.69 with a histogram at 3.79, suggesting mild bullish momentum. The RSI at 57.09/56.72 is neutral — neither overbought nor oversold — indicating the consolidation could resolve in either direction depending on Wednesday’s NFP data. A break above $5,125 would open the path to $5,375; a failure below $5,007 would signal a deeper pullback toward $4,927.

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Key Facts

— Daily: Silver closed at $83.78 after a powerful 3.76% rally that saw prices surge from an $80.80 low to a $84.04 high. The daily chart shows price has now reclaimed territory above the Ichimoku cloud, a significant technical development after the devastating crash from $121.

— The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are converging near $83–$87, setting up a potential bullish crossover. The daily RSI at 58.31/48.59 is improving but not yet confirming a full trend reversal.

— The MACD at 2.839/−0.044 is on the verge of crossing positive — the histogram at −2.883 remains negative but is rapidly improving. The 200-day baseline at $50.76 is far below, confirming the massive multi-month advance that preceded the crash. Key resistance at $87.48 (upper Bollinger area) and $92.83 (recent swing high).

— 4-Hour: The 4H chart shows silver consolidating near $83.77 after the day’s rally, trading at the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud. Immediate resistance sits at $86.50–$86.86 (cloud top and Senkou Span B), with $91.23 as the next major target.

— The 4H MACD at 0.734/−0.016 has just crossed positive, with the histogram at −0.751 still negative but improving rapidly. The RSI at 54.54/50.62 is neutral, suggesting the consolidation phase could extend before the next directional move.

— Support at $82.06–$82.47 (cloud base), with $80.33 and $78.02 as deeper support levels. A sustained close above $86.50 would confirm the recovery trend; a failure below $80 would reopen downside risk toward the crash lows.

Key Facts

— Tue Feb 11 — Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Day 1) + JOLTS Job Openings

— Wed Feb 12 — January NFP (delayed) + Powell Testimony (Day 2)

— Thu Feb 13 — Initial Jobless Claims + PPI

— Fri Feb 14 — January CPI (delayed) + UMich Consumer Sentiment