IBOV 173,787 ▼ 0.73% IPSA 10,788 ▼ 1.00% IPC MEX 68,588 ▼ 0.40% MERVAL 3,166,407 ▲ 2.49% COLCAP 2,176.90 ▼ 0.26% BVL PERÚ 34,836.62 ▲ 0.71% USD/BRL 5.04 ▲ 0.13% USD/MXN 17.34 ▲ 0.12% USD/CLP 888.00 ▼ 0.41% USD/COP 3,666 ▲ 0.83% USD/PEN 3.40 ▼ 0.32% USD/ARS 1,409 ▼ 0.07% USD/UYU 40.13 ▲ 1.58% USD/PYG 5,998 ▼ 0.32% USD/BOB 6.86 ▲ 1.81% USD/DOP 58.15 ▲ 0.12% USD/CRC 451.23 ▲ 2.38% USD/GTQ 7.62 ▲ 2.23% USD/HNL 26.63 ▲ 1.72% USD/NIO 36.62 ▲ 0.31% USD/VES 548.00 ▼ 0.13% USD/PAB 1.00 ▲ 2.24% USD/BZD 2.00 ▲ 1.68% USD/JMD 156.59 ▲ 0.93% USD/TTD 6.75 ▲ 1.47% EUR/BRL 5.88 ▼ 0.16% BRENT 91.12 ▼ 2.76% WTI 87.36 ▼ 1.73% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.39 ▼ 0.11% GOLD 4,593 ▲ 2.08% SILVER 75.88 ▲ 0.30% SOY 1,187 ▼ 0.65% CORN 446.75 ▼ 1.97% WHEAT 610.50 ▼ 2.16% COFFEE 265.90 ▼ 3.04% SUGAR 14.07 ▲ 1.01% ORANGE JUICE 158.80 ▼ 5.84% COTTON 76.25 ▼ 0.68% COCOA 3,901 ▼ 4.83% BEEF 239.05 ▼ 4.28% CATTLE 348.43 ▼ 1.30% LITHIUM 87.15 ▼ 0.40% PETR4 42.00 ▼ 1.20% VALE3 82.82 ▼ 1.36% ITUB4 40.04 ▲ 0.10% BBDC4 17.70 ▼ 1.12% ABEV3 16.32 ▲ 0.18% BBAS3 20.30 ▼ 1.41% B3SA3 16.50 — 0.00% WEGE3 44.10 ▲ 0.87% PRIO3 62.25 ▼ 1.14% SUZB3 41.91 ▲ 0.53% RENT3 42.02 ▼ 1.87% AZZA3 19.31 ▼ 2.72% CSAN3 3.80 ▼ 3.55% RAIZ4 0.36 ▲ 5.88% PCAR3 1.86 ▼ 5.10% GMAT3 4.27 ▲ 3.14% PSSA3 48.31 ▲ 0.06% CVCB3 1.50 ▼ 6.25% POSI3 4.07 ▼ 1.69% SLCE3 15.50 ▼ 2.52% NATU3 9.95 ▼ 1.49% BRKM5 10.46 ▼ 6.02% RANI3 8.02 ▲ 1.01% CSNA3 6.71 ▼ 1.32% CMIN3 4.66 ▼ 0.85% USIM5 11.08 ▲ 4.04% GGBR4 22.77 ▼ 3.11% ENEV3 25.63 ▲ 2.52% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 43.39 ▲ 0.84% CMIG4 10.76 ▼ 2.62% EQTL3 38.55 ▲ 0.92% LREN3 14.90 ▼ 0.67% VIVT3 33.82 ▲ 0.65% RAIL3 13.72 ▼ 0.94% KLABIN 16.67 — 0.00% RAIA DROGASIL 18.69 ▼ 1.37% RDOR3 34.02 ▼ 1.31% HAPV3 12.15 ▼ 2.64% FLRY3 15.39 ▼ 2.22% SMTO3 16.98 ▼ 1.05% UGPA3 25.87 ▼ 3.86% VBBR3 29.75 ▼ 3.75% BBSE3 35.40 ▲ 2.37% BPAC11 53.75 ▼ 1.01% CURY3 31.73 ▼ 1.40% AERI3 2.29 ▼ 1.29% VIVARA 21.84 ▼ 1.40% COMPASS 26.77 ▼ 0.82% VAMOS 3.06 ▼ 4.08% SANB11 27.16 ▼ 0.22% ASAI3 8.75 ▼ 2.56% SBSP3 27.95 ▼ 0.75% WALMEX 52.48 ▲ 0.04% GMEXICO 214.29 ▲ 0.39% FEMSA 206.62 ▼ 1.53% CEMEX 22.77 ▲ 0.26% GFNORTE 180.63 ▼ 2.44% BIMBO 59.69 ▲ 1.50% TELEVISA 9.33 ▼ 3.72% AMX 22.08 ▼ 1.43% GAP 407.34 ▼ 1.53% ASUR 296.27 ▼ 1.45% OMA 217.77 ▼ 0.33% KOF 187.08 ▲ 0.74% GRUMA 291.39 ▼ 0.73% KIMBER 38.40 ▲ 0.39% SQM-B 76,200 ▲ 1.10% COPEC 6,323 ▼ 3.61% BSANTANDER 70.00 ▼ 1.96% FALABELLA 5,700 ▼ 2.98% ENELAM 78.00 ▼ 1.25% CENCOSUD 2,099 ▼ 3.72% CMPC 1,066 ▼ 4.82% BANCO CHILE 167.66 ▼ 2.81% LATAM AIR 24.10 ▲ 1.43% YPF 78,350 ▲ 1.65% GGAL 7,495 ▲ 3.59% PAMPA 5,095 ▲ 2.16% TXAR 692.50 ▲ 3.28% ALUAR 1,019 ▲ 1.39% TGS 9,135 ▲ 0.05% CEPU 2,356 ▲ 4.43% MIRGOR 16,950 ▲ 1.04% COME 49.36 ▲ 4.82% LOMA NEGRA 3,593 ▲ 2.50% BYMA 296.75 ▲ 1.37% TELECOM ARG 4,328 ▲ 5.55% ECOPETROL 14.62 ▼ 1.02% BANCOLOMBIA 68.59 ▼ 0.87% GRUPO AVAL 4.61 ▼ 1.71% CREDICORP 342.63 ▲ 0.33% SOUTHERN COPPER 191.30 ▼ 1.84% BUENAVENTURA 36.89 ▲ 5.37% MERCADOLIBRE 1,696 ▲ 0.01% NUBANK 13.13 ▲ 0.61% XP 16.67 ▼ 1.71% PAGSEGURO 9.35 ▲ 0.21% STONE 11.45 ▲ 1.06% GLOBANT 40.43 ▲ 1.25% TECNOGLASS 43.09 ▼ 2.53% GAP AIRPORT 236.30 ▼ 0.76% ASUR 296.27 ▼ 1.45% OMA AIRPORT 100.32 ▼ 0.40% AMX ADR 25.40 ▼ 1.53% FEMSA ADR 119.03 ▼ 1.51% CEMEX ADR 13.10 ▲ 0.27% PETROBRAS ADR 18.77 ▼ 0.32% VALE ADR 16.25 ▼ 1.81% ITAU ADR 7.88 — 0.00% SANTANDER BR 5.45 — 0.00% AMBEV ADR 3.21 ▲ 0.31% CSN 1.35 ▼ 1.10% GERDAU 4.50 ▼ 3.23% LATAM ADR 53.68 ▲ 1.04% BTC 73,902 ▲ 0.72% ETH 2,024 ▲ 0.59% SOL 82.80 ▲ 1.06% XRP 1.34 ▲ 1.24% BNB 715.02 ▲ 11.32% ADA 0.24 ▲ 1.89% DOGE 0.10 ▲ 1.56% AVAX 8.96 ▲ 1.63% LINK 9.23 ▲ 2.38% DOT 1.19 ▼ 0.01% LTC 52.44 ▲ 1.18% BCH 305.74 ▲ 1.27% TRX 0.35 ▲ 0.89% XLM 0.25 ▼ 5.65% HBAR 0.10 ▼ 1.93% NEAR 2.30 ▼ 3.22% ATOM 2.03 ▲ 0.73% AAVE 83.14 ▲ 0.93% SELIC 14.50% EMBRAER 73.38 ▼ 0.30% EMBRAER ADR 57.75 ▼ 1.11% JBS 12.47 ▼ 3.63% JBS BDR 61.00 ▼ 6.20% MBRF3 16.01 ▼ 1.72% MBRFY 3.08 ▼ 4.64% INTER 6.17 ▼ 2.68% IBOV 173,787 ▼ 0.73% IPSA 10,788 ▼ 1.00% IPC MEX 68,588 ▼ 0.40% MERVAL 3,166,407 ▲ 2.49% COLCAP 2,176.90 ▼ 0.26% BVL PERÚ 34,836.62 ▲ 0.71% USD/BRL 5.04 ▲ 0.13% USD/MXN 17.34 ▲ 0.12% USD/CLP 888.00 ▼ 0.41% USD/COP 3,666 ▲ 0.83% USD/PEN 3.40 ▼ 0.32% USD/ARS 1,409 ▼ 0.07% USD/UYU 40.13 ▲ 1.58% USD/PYG 5,998 ▼ 0.32% USD/BOB 6.86 ▲ 1.81% USD/DOP 58.15 ▲ 0.12% USD/CRC 451.23 ▲ 2.38% USD/GTQ 7.62 ▲ 2.23% USD/HNL 26.63 ▲ 1.72% USD/NIO 36.62 ▲ 0.31% USD/VES 548.00 ▼ 0.13% USD/PAB 1.00 ▲ 2.24% USD/BZD 2.00 ▲ 1.68% USD/JMD 156.59 ▲ 0.93% USD/TTD 6.75 ▲ 1.47% EUR/BRL 5.88 ▼ 0.16% BRENT 91.12 ▼ 2.76% WTI 87.36 ▼ 1.73% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.39 ▼ 0.11% GOLD 4,593 ▲ 2.08% SILVER 75.88 ▲ 0.30% SOY 1,187 ▼ 0.65% CORN 446.75 ▼ 1.97% WHEAT 610.50 ▼ 2.16% COFFEE 265.90 ▼ 3.04% SUGAR 14.07 ▲ 1.01% ORANGE JUICE 158.80 ▼ 5.84% COTTON 76.25 ▼ 0.68% COCOA 3,901 ▼ 4.83% BEEF 239.05 ▼ 4.28% CATTLE 348.43 ▼ 1.30% LITHIUM 87.15 ▼ 0.40% PETR4 42.00 ▼ 1.20% VALE3 82.82 ▼ 1.36% ITUB4 40.04 ▲ 0.10% BBDC4 17.70 ▼ 1.12% ABEV3 16.32 ▲ 0.18% BBAS3 20.30 ▼ 1.41% B3SA3 16.50 — 0.00% WEGE3 44.10 ▲ 0.87% PRIO3 62.25 ▼ 1.14% SUZB3 41.91 ▲ 0.53% RENT3 42.02 ▼ 1.87% AZZA3 19.31 ▼ 2.72% CSAN3 3.80 ▼ 3.55% RAIZ4 0.36 ▲ 5.88% PCAR3 1.86 ▼ 5.10% GMAT3 4.27 ▲ 3.14% PSSA3 48.31 ▲ 0.06% CVCB3 1.50 ▼ 6.25% POSI3 4.07 ▼ 1.69% SLCE3 15.50 ▼ 2.52% NATU3 9.95 ▼ 1.49% BRKM5 10.46 ▼ 6.02% RANI3 8.02 ▲ 1.01% CSNA3 6.71 ▼ 1.32% CMIN3 4.66 ▼ 0.85% USIM5 11.08 ▲ 4.04% GGBR4 22.77 ▼ 3.11% ENEV3 25.63 ▲ 2.52% NEOE3 33.80 — 0.00% CPFE3 43.39 ▲ 0.84% CMIG4 10.76 ▼ 2.62% EQTL3 38.55 ▲ 0.92% LREN3 14.90 ▼ 0.67% VIVT3 33.82 ▲ 0.65% RAIL3 13.72 ▼ 0.94% KLABIN 16.67 — 0.00% RAIA DROGASIL 18.69 ▼ 1.37% RDOR3 34.02 ▼ 1.31% HAPV3 12.15 ▼ 2.64% FLRY3 15.39 ▼ 2.22% SMTO3 16.98 ▼ 1.05% UGPA3 25.87 ▼ 3.86% VBBR3 29.75 ▼ 3.75% BBSE3 35.40 ▲ 2.37% BPAC11 53.75 ▼ 1.01% CURY3 31.73 ▼ 1.40% AERI3 2.29 ▼ 1.29% VIVARA 21.84 ▼ 1.40% COMPASS 26.77 ▼ 0.82% VAMOS 3.06 ▼ 4.08% SANB11 27.16 ▼ 0.22% ASAI3 8.75 ▼ 2.56% SBSP3 27.95 ▼ 0.75% WALMEX 52.48 ▲ 0.04% GMEXICO 214.29 ▲ 0.39% FEMSA 206.62 ▼ 1.53% CEMEX 22.77 ▲ 0.26% GFNORTE 180.63 ▼ 2.44% BIMBO 59.69 ▲ 1.50% TELEVISA 9.33 ▼ 3.72% AMX 22.08 ▼ 1.43% GAP 407.34 ▼ 1.53% ASUR 296.27 ▼ 1.45% OMA 217.77 ▼ 0.33% KOF 187.08 ▲ 0.74% GRUMA 291.39 ▼ 0.73% KIMBER 38.40 ▲ 0.39% SQM-B 76,200 ▲ 1.10% COPEC 6,323 ▼ 3.61% BSANTANDER 70.00 ▼ 1.96% FALABELLA 5,700 ▼ 2.98% ENELAM 78.00 ▼ 1.25% CENCOSUD 2,099 ▼ 3.72% CMPC 1,066 ▼ 4.82% BANCO CHILE 167.66 ▼ 2.81% LATAM AIR 24.10 ▲ 1.43% YPF 78,350 ▲ 1.65% GGAL 7,495 ▲ 3.59% PAMPA 5,095 ▲ 2.16% TXAR 692.50 ▲ 3.28% ALUAR 1,019 ▲ 1.39% TGS 9,135 ▲ 0.05% CEPU 2,356 ▲ 4.43% MIRGOR 16,950 ▲ 1.04% COME 49.36 ▲ 4.82% LOMA NEGRA 3,593 ▲ 2.50% BYMA 296.75 ▲ 1.37% TELECOM ARG 4,328 ▲ 5.55% ECOPETROL 14.62 ▼ 1.02% BANCOLOMBIA 68.59 ▼ 0.87% GRUPO AVAL 4.61 ▼ 1.71% CREDICORP 342.63 ▲ 0.33% SOUTHERN COPPER 191.30 ▼ 1.84% BUENAVENTURA 36.89 ▲ 5.37% MERCADOLIBRE 1,696 ▲ 0.01% NUBANK 13.13 ▲ 0.61% XP 16.67 ▼ 1.71% PAGSEGURO 9.35 ▲ 0.21% STONE 11.45 ▲ 1.06% GLOBANT 40.43 ▲ 1.25% TECNOGLASS 43.09 ▼ 2.53% GAP AIRPORT 236.30 ▼ 0.76% ASUR 296.27 ▼ 1.45% OMA AIRPORT 100.32 ▼ 0.40% AMX ADR 25.40 ▼ 1.53% FEMSA ADR 119.03 ▼ 1.51% CEMEX ADR 13.10 ▲ 0.27% PETROBRAS ADR 18.77 ▼ 0.32% VALE ADR 16.25 ▼ 1.81% ITAU ADR 7.88 — 0.00% SANTANDER BR 5.45 — 0.00% AMBEV ADR 3.21 ▲ 0.31% CSN 1.35 ▼ 1.10% GERDAU 4.50 ▼ 3.23% LATAM ADR 53.68 ▲ 1.04% BTC 73,902 ▲ 0.72% ETH 2,024 ▲ 0.59% SOL 82.80 ▲ 1.06% XRP 1.34 ▲ 1.24% BNB 715.02 ▲ 11.32% ADA 0.24 ▲ 1.89% DOGE 0.10 ▲ 1.56% AVAX 8.96 ▲ 1.63% LINK 9.23 ▲ 2.38% DOT 1.19 ▼ 0.01% LTC 52.44 ▲ 1.18% BCH 305.74 ▲ 1.27% TRX 0.35 ▲ 0.89% XLM 0.25 ▼ 5.65% HBAR 0.10 ▼ 1.93% NEAR 2.30 ▼ 3.22% ATOM 2.03 ▲ 0.73% AAVE 83.14 ▲ 0.93% SELIC 14.50% EMBRAER 73.38 ▼ 0.30% EMBRAER ADR 57.75 ▼ 1.11% JBS 12.47 ▼ 3.63% JBS BDR 61.00 ▼ 6.20% MBRF3 16.01 ▼ 1.72% MBRFY 3.08 ▼ 4.64% INTER 6.17 ▼ 2.68%
since 2009
Saturday, May 30, 2026

Bitcoin Drops Below $67,000 as Crypto Fear Hits Extreme

By · February 11, 2026 · 6 min read

Daily Brief

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The Big Three

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1
\nBTC crumbles to $66,978, its lowest level since early April 2024, as the relief rally from last week’s $60,062 flash-crash low evaporates entirely. Monday’s session saw Bitcoin slide 3.09% on Bitstamp, printing a low of $66,525 — well below the $69,000–$70,000 zone traders had identified as the line in the sand. The breakdown confirms the bounce to $71,458 on Friday was a textbook dead-cat bounce, not a trend reversal. Bitcoin is now 47% below its October all-time high of $126,296.

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2
\nSpot Bitcoin ETFs flip back to net inflows — $166.5 million on Monday — but it’s not enough to stem the bleeding. Ark/21Shares’ ARKB led with $68.5M, Fidelity’s FBTC added $56.9M, and BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $26.5M. While the flows mark a break from the $7 billion in cumulative net outflows since November 2025, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted the buying is coming from long-term advisor channels while hedge funds and short-term traders within the same ETFs continue to exit — two markets inside one product.

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3
\nCrypto Fear & Greed Index collapses to 10 — the lowest reading since the FTX implosion — as the broader crypto complex trades in Extreme Fear. CoinMarketCap’s gauge hit 9 on February 8, tying the cycle low. Spot volumes on major centralized exchanges have declined roughly 30% since October/November, from ~$1 trillion monthly to the $700 billion range, according to Kaiko. The thin liquidity backdrop means prices can slide quickly on relatively modest selling pressure without the kind of heavy capitulation volume that typically signals a durable bottom.

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03Technical Analysis

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BTC/USD · Daily (1D) · Bitstamp

\nBTC/USD Daily Chart
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On the daily timeframe, the bearish structure has intensified sharply. Price closed at $66,978, decisively breaking below the key $69,000 psychological support and the lower Bollinger Band at $69,522.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of cryptocurrency markets and Latin American financial markets.

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The Ichimoku cloud remains massively overhead — the base of the cloud sits near $78,097 with the upper boundary at $101,560 — confirming that any recovery faces a wall of resistance.

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The 200-DMA (blue line) has tracked down to approximately $85,764 and is now falling, underscoring the structural bear trend. Price is trading 22% below this long-term average.

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The daily MACD is deeply negative with the histogram at −841, the MACD line at −5,803 and the signal at −4,962 — both well into historically extreme bearish territory and still diverging. This suggests downside momentum has not yet exhausted itself.

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Daily RSI stands at 30.20/28.83, sitting right on the oversold boundary but without any positive divergence to suggest a reversal is imminent.

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The key support levels below are $66,052 (recent local low), $63,390 (Fibonacci cluster), and $60,062 (the February 6 flash-crash spike low). Resistance sits at $69,522 (lower BB), $73,644 (Tenkan-sen), and $78,097 (Kijun-sen/cloud base).

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BTC/USD · 4-Hour (4H) · Bitstamp

\nBTC/USD 4H Chart
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The 4-hour chart shows the accelerating breakdown from the $69,000–$70,000 consolidation zone that had held through the first week of February. Price broke below the 4H Ichimoku cloud floor near $68,445 during Monday’s session and continued to slide.

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The 4H cloud sits entirely overhead between $68,445 and $70,427, with the 200-period SMA (blue) far above at $84,583 — underscoring the magnitude of the bear trend across all timeframes.

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The Bollinger Bands have expanded on the downside, with the lower band at $66,978 tracking the current price, suggesting continued bearish volatility.

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The 4H MACD is negative with the histogram at −188, MACD line at −810 and signal at −622 — confirming bearish momentum on the intraday timeframe as well.

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However, the 4H RSI at 37.14/44.34 is not yet as oversold as the daily, leaving room for further downside before a technical bounce materializes.

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The immediate 4H support sits at $66,525 (Monday’s low), with $64,000 and $60,062 below. Any recovery attempt will face overhead resistance at $68,445–$68,497 (lower cloud boundary), $69,352–$69,522 (mid-range), and $70,427 (upper cloud boundary).

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KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS
Support 1 $66,525 (Session low)
Support 2 $63,390 (Fibonacci cluster)
Support 3 $60,062 (Flash-crash low)
Resistance 1 $69,522 (Lower Bollinger Band)
Resistance 2 $73,644 (Daily Tenkan-sen)
Resistance 3 $85,764 (200-DMA)
Daily RSI (14) 30.20 / 28.83
Daily MACD −5,803 / −4,962 / Hist −841
Bias STRONG SELL

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04Market Commentary

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Monday’s breakdown below $67,000 marks a decisive new leg lower in what has been a brutal four-month bear market for Bitcoin. The price action confirms what CoinDesk described as a “classic bear-market relief rally” — the rebound from last week’s $60,062 flash crash stalled right at the $70,000 overhead resistance, and sellers have now reasserted control.

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Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Crypto — Live Market Board

Digital assets
May 30, 2026 · 16:45

Bitcoin · benchmark
73,902
+0.72%
L 73,141day rangeH 73,970

-28.93% over 12 months

Market breadth · 17 names
76% advancing

13 ▲ advancing4 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs
Ethereum
2,024
+0.59%

Solana
82.80
+1.06%

Gold
4,593
+2.08%

USD / BRL
5.04
+0.13%

Full instrument board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
BTC 73,902 +0.72% -28.93% 73,373 73,970 73,141 20,412,538,880
ETH 2,024 +0.59% -19.99% 2,012 2,028 2,001 8,094,227,968
SOL 82.80 +1.06% -47.00% 81.93 82.95 81.92 2,350,744,832
XRP 1.34 +1.24% -37.10% 1.33 1.36 1.33 1,793,456,768
BNB 715.02 +11.32% +9.19% 642.29 719.60 642.09 2,810,081,024
ADA 0.24 +1.89% -65.62% 0.23 0.24 0.23 350,172,096
DOGE 0.10 +1.56% -47.67% 0.10 0.10 0.10 551,377,856
AVAX 8.96 +1.63% -56.41% 8.82 9.02 8.81 221,219,968
LINK 9.23 +2.38% -33.56% 9.02 9.29 9.01 317,075,136
DOT 1.19 -0.01% -70.58% 1.19 1.22 1.19 144,477,200
LTC 52.44 +1.18% -38.76% 51.83 52.68 51.82 228,142,960
BCH 305.74 +1.27% -23.39% 301.90 307.36 297.64 142,662,832
TRX 0.35 +0.89% +29.89% 0.34 0.35 0.34 748,990,144
XLM 0.25 -5.65% -6.89% 0.26 0.30 0.24 2,327,001,856
HBAR 0.10 -1.93% -41.60% 0.10 0.11 0.10 516,443,360
NEAR 2.30 -3.22% -5.80% 2.38 2.43 2.28 551,135,296
ATOM 2.03 +0.73% -52.78% 2.01 2.06 2.01 31,235,342
AAVE 83.14 +0.93% -66.94% 82.37 83.61 82.19 173,143,408

Largest moves today
BNB
715.02
+11.32%
XLM
0.25
-5.65%
NEAR
2.30
-3.22%
LINK
9.23
+2.38%
HBAR
0.10
-1.93%
ADA
0.24
+1.89%
AVAX
8.96
+1.63%
DOGE
0.10
+1.56%

The session read
The Bitcoin rose 0.72%, with breadth positive — 13 of 17 names higher. BNB led, while XLM lagged.

Kaiko’s research note highlighted a troubling structural backdrop: aggregate trading volumes across major centralized exchanges have declined by roughly 30% since the October/November peak, with monthly spot volumes dropping from around $1 trillion to the $700 billion range.

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This points to a gradual exodus of retail participants rather than a single capitulation event, which historically makes for a slower, more grinding bottoming process.

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The ETF flow picture offers a rare silver lining but with important caveats. Monday’s $166.5 million in net inflows broke a streak of sustained outflows, and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan revealed that financial advisor channels — Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, and UBS all now allow crypto exposure — have been quietly buying the dip.

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However, hedge funds and short-term traders within the same ETF wrapper are exiting simultaneously, creating a “two markets inside one product” dynamic.

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Net cumulative outflows since November remain around $7 billion, though Hougan noted most of the AUM decline comes from price drops, not redemptions.

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The implication: the selling pressure is coming less from ETF panic and more from long-term crypto natives who built positions over the past 15 years and are now trimming.

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Meanwhile, gold continues to outshine Bitcoin spectacularly. While BTC has lost 47% from its October high, gold futures have surged past $5,000 an ounce — a 61% gain over the same period.

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As GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind put it, “the precious metals thing has really caught crypto investors sort of off guard. This is not supposed to happen.” The divergence undercuts the “digital gold” narrative that underpinned much of Bitcoin’s institutional adoption thesis.

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The Truflation index, an independent blockchain-based CPI tracker, has dropped below 1% for the first time, suggesting real-time disinflation is running far ahead of official figures — a setup that should theoretically benefit liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, but the market isn’t pricing that yet.

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The broader macro backdrop was mixed on Monday. The S&P 500 was essentially flat (−0.10%), the Dow eked out a +0.23% gain to hold above 50,000, and the Nasdaq dipped 0.23% — not the kind of risk-off capitulation that would force crypto lower on its own.

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The VIX crept up to 17.68 (+1.84%), and the US 10-year yield fell to 4.149%, both consistent with a market treading cautiously ahead of key catalysts.

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The week’s primary data point is the US CPI release on Wednesday — a hotter-than-expected print would reinforce the “higher for longer” rate narrative and likely send BTC retesting $60,000, while a softer number could spark a relief rally given how oversold conditions have become.

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05Verdict & Looking Ahead

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Daily RSI at 30, price trading 22% below the 200-DMA, and a deeply negative MACD at −5,803 all confirm a market deep in bear-trend territory with no technical signs of reversal. The breakdown below $69,000 — the level traders had identified as the line in the sand — opens the door to a retest of $63,390 and potentially the $60,062 flash-crash low. The sole constructive signal is the oversold RSI reading approaching levels that have historically preceded counter-trend bounces, and the tentative return of ETF inflows. Wednesday’s CPI is the binary catalyst: a cool print could spark a sharp technical squeeze from these extreme oversold levels; a hot print likely sends BTC straight back toward $60,000. Until the daily structure shows a higher low and price reclaims $73,600+ (the Tenkan-sen), rallies remain opportunities to sell, not buy. Bias: Strong Sell.

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Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and speculative. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in assets discussed in this report.

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Related coverage: Brazil’s Ibovespa | dollar-real exchange rate

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