Ghana’s Trade Surplus Hit US$8.8 Billion in the First Half
GHANA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The actuals Ghana ran a US$8.80 billion trade surplus and a US$5.1 billion current account surplus in the first half of 2026.
- —The comparison Against US$5.76 billion and US$4.1 billion in the same period of 2025.
- —The driver Gold exports of US$12.49 billion, up 49% year on year, with crude at US$1.71 billion and cocoa at US$2.28 billion.
- —The counterweight Gross reserves fell US$1.2 billion in the second quarter to US$12.94 billion, five months of import cover.
- —The 2025 benchmark A current account surplus of US$9.08 billion, described by Fitch Ratings as 8.2% of output.
- —The forecast Fitch Solutions has publicly been reported at 4.2% of output for 2026, not higher figures circulating elsewhere.
Ghana is running its largest external surplus on record and its reserves are falling at the same time. Both of those are Bank of Ghana numbers.
Ghana recorded a trade surplus of US$8.80 billion and a current account surplus of US$5.1 billion in the first half of 2026, on Bank of Ghana figures, while gross international reserves fell by US$1.2 billion over the same period.
The First-Half Numbers
The Bank of Ghana’s July monetary policy committee reported a provisional trade surplus of US$8.80 billion for the first half of 2026, against US$5.76 billion a year earlier, and a current account surplus of US$5.1 billion against US$4.1 billion.
Gold exports reached US$12.49 billion, up 49.0% year on year. Crude oil exports were US$1.71 billion and cocoa US$2.28 billion, against total imports of US$9.84 billion.
Gold alone therefore exceeded the entire import bill, which is the single fact that explains the surplus.
Reserves Are Going the Other Way
Gross international reserves stood at US$13.82 billion at the end of December 2025, equal to 5.7 months of import cover. They rose to US$14.15 billion at the end of March 2026 and then fell to US$12.94 billion, or 5.0 months, by the end of June.
That US$1.2 billion decline in a single quarter sits awkwardly beside a record current account surplus, and it is the part of the picture most often left out.
A country earning more from trade than it spends should be accumulating reserves. When it is not, the difference is going out through the financial account, through debt service, or through central bank operations in the currency market.
The 2025 Benchmark
Ghana’s 2025 current account surplus was US$9.08 billion, against US$1.47 billion in 2024, according to the Bank of Ghana’s January 2026 monetary policy report.
Fitch Ratings, upgrading Ghana to B from B minus with a positive outlook on 9 May 2026, described that as a record surplus of 8.2% of gross domestic product. The central bank itself does not publish the balance as a share of output, so the percentage is the rating agency’s calculation rather than an official Ghanaian figure.
What the Forecasts Say
Fitch Solutions, the country risk arm and a separate business from Fitch Ratings, has been publicly reported as projecting a current account surplus of about 4.2% of output for 2026, attributing part of the improvement to the restart of the Tema Oil Refinery in December 2025.
Higher figures for 2026 have circulated without a traceable publication behind them. The Rio Times reports the 4.2% projection, which is on the public record, and does not print numbers it cannot source.
A first-half current account surplus of US$5.1 billion is itself roughly 5% of annual output, so a full-year figure above 4.2% is not implausible. Plausible is not the same as published.
Why Gold Is the Whole Story
Ghana is Africa’s largest gold producer, and the metal’s price has risen sharply through 2026. A 49% increase in gold export value is mostly price rather than volume, which makes the surplus a commodity position rather than a structural change.
That distinction decides how durable it is. A surplus built on a metal price reverses when the price does; one built on refining capacity, of the kind the Tema restart adds, does not.
What to Watch
The next monetary policy committee statement will show whether the reserve drawdown continued through the third quarter. That is the number that matters more than the headline surplus.
The policy rate has been held at 14%, which the central bank attributes partly to inflation risk from the Middle East. A falling reserve position narrows the room to hold it there if the currency comes under pressure.
More: Africa news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Ghana’s first-half trade surplus?
US$8.80 billion, up from US$5.76 billion in the first half of 2025.
What about the current account?
A surplus of US$5.1 billion, against US$4.1 billion a year earlier.
What is driving it?
Gold exports of US$12.49 billion, up 49% year on year, which alone exceeded total imports of US$9.84 billion.
Are reserves rising?
No. They fell US$1.2 billion in the second quarter to US$12.94 billion, or five months of import cover.
What is forecast for the full year?
Fitch Solutions has been publicly reported at about 4.2% of output. Higher figures circulating are not traceable to a published note.
Sources: Bank of Ghana, Citi Newsroom, MyJoyOnline, Fitch Ratings, News Ghana.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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