Energy Markets Digest OPEC+ Unwinding Plans and Middle East Tensions
Oil markets experienced volatile trading on March 3, 2025, with prices fluctuating between geopolitical tensions and mixed demand signals. The April WTI contract opened at $68.13 (up 55¢ from prior close) and ultimately settled at $67.58 (+0.6%), while Brent crude settled at $71.07 (+0.7%).
Geopolitical Factors
U.S. launched retaliatory strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen over Red Sea shipping attacks, creating supply disruption risks. OPEC+ confirmed plans to gradually unwind 5.85M bpd production cuts starting April 2025, introducing bearish sentiment.
Trump administration tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China) raised fears of economic slowdown and demand destruction.
Fundamental Data
WTI hit a day high of $68.37 and a low of $67.25, with its 50-Day Moving Average at $70.11 and a 14-day RSI of 48.7. Brent reached a high of $71.80 and a low of $70.68, with a 50-Day MA at $71.35 and RSI at 51.2.
Technical analysts noted critical support at $67.25 (WTI) and $70.53 (Brent), with resistance at $68.50 and $72.30 respectively. The MACD histogram showed weakening bearish momentum across both benchmarks.
Regional Market Highlights
Asia
Prices found early support from China’s manufacturing PMI (52.1), the strongest in 3 months.
Europe
ICE Brent volumes surged 22% above 30-day average as traders positioned for OPEC+ policy shift.
North America
Cushing inventories drew 1.8M barrels, but WTI faced pressure from Permian pipeline restarts.
Capital Flows & Positioning
WisdomTree Brent 3x Short ETF (3BSR) saw £14.1M outflows (-3.96% NAV drop). CFTC data showed managed money net longs fell to 148,000 contracts (-73% YTD), lowest since July 2024. Brent open interest declined 4.2% as producers hedged against April OPEC+ supply increases.
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Commodities — Live Market Board
-0.03%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
Market Maker Commentary
“The OPEC+ plan to offset new production with compensatory cuts creates a floor around $65, but tariffs could cap upside near $70 until demand clarity emerges” – Amena Bakr, Kpler.
“Technical indicators suggest rangebound trading until WTI conclusively breaks $68.50 resistance or $65 support” – Sprague Energy Technical Team.
Prices ultimately consolidated within established ranges, with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) settling at 38.6 (+9% WoW) as traders priced in multiple macro uncertainties. The market’s inability to sustain early gains above $68 reflected growing caution about demand sustainability amid escalating trade wars.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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