Debt Tsunami: America’s Looming Economic Storm

The U.S. is on track for a $1.6 trillion federal budget deficit in 2024, escalating to $1.8 trillion by 2025, and returning to $1.6 trillion in 2027.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a peak at $2.6 trillion by 2034.

In 2024, the deficit will constitute 5.6% of GDP, climbing to 6.1% in 2025, then dropping to 5.2% in 2027 and 2028.

After 2028, these percentages are forecast to rise, hitting 6.1% again by 2034.

Such deficit levels were previously seen only during major crises like the Great Depression and the 2007–2009 financial crisis.

Public debt will escalate from 99% of GDP at the end of 2024 to an unprecedented 116% by 2034. Under unchanged laws, this could surge to 172% of GDP by 2054.

Federal Expenditure and Revenue Forecast

The U.S. plans to spend around $6.5 trillion in 2024, or about 23.1% of GDP.

The expenditure ratio is expected to stabilize until 2028. Afterward, it is projected to rise to 24.1% by 2034, driven by higher costs for older people programs and net interest.

Revenue for 2024 is projected at $4.9 trillion, or 17.5% of GDP. This will rise to 17.9% by 2027 after tax provisions expire, staying near this level through 2034.

Macroeconomic Indicators and Outlook

Economic growth may slow in 2024, influenced by tighter monetary policies and rising unemployment.

Post-2024, growth is expected to rebound as the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates.

Interest rates peaked in 2023, reaching their highest level since 2001. However, analysts expect them to begin declining in the second quarter of 2024.

The 10-year Treasury bond rates will likely increase in 2024, and then decrease through 2026.

PCE inflation slowed in 2023, aiming for the Fed’s 2% target by 2024, with a slight rise and subsequent decline in 2025.