BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 17 October, 9:46 a.m. ET · Source: Datafolha, Folha de S.Paulo
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, the Datafolha polling institute published how Brazilians rate Lula’s government ten days before the runoff.
- The numbers 41% rate the government bad or terrible, 35% good or great and 23% regular, with a 2-point margin of error.
- The change A week earlier the split was 40% negative, 35% positive and 24% regular, so the ratings barely moved.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 9:43 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 17 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open No later Datafolha survey yet shows whether fuel and small-business measures change how voters rate the government.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Datafolha, Brazil’s leading polling institute, found that 41% of voters rate the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, bad or terrible. Only 35% rate it good or great, almost unchanged from a week earlier.
Folha de S.Paulo published the survey on Thursday 15 October at 5:33 p.m. ET, ten days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. It joins the other surveys in our Brazil election polls tracker.
What the Datafolha Survey Found
Datafolha asked voters to grade the government as great or good, regular, or bad or terrible, Folha de S.Paulo reported. The split was 35% positive, 23% regular and 41% negative.
Disapproval of Lula’s work as president reached 50%, against 48% who approve, O Liberal reported. Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people aged 16 or older on 13 and 14 October, with a 2-point margin of error and TSE registration BR-00466/2026.
How the Numbers Moved in a Week
On 8 October, the first Datafolha poll of the runoff found 40% negative, 35% positive and 24% regular, O Liberal reported. Disapproval of Lula was then 49% and approval 48%.
Last week’s approval split of 49%% to 48%% was within the margin of error. This week’s gap is 2 points, equal to the margin.
Why the Regular Voters Matter
Folha’s analysis says campaign strategists look first at voters who call the government regular, because they are the easiest to win over. Lula’s rejection as a candidate is high, so he cannot rely only on voters who rate his government well.
The government has cut federal taxes on gasoline to zero for one month, Diário do Nordeste reported. Lula also announced a package for micro-entrepreneurs on Tuesday 13 October, Correio da Manhã reported.
Flávio Bolsonaro has accused the government of electioneering over Petrobras and fuel prices. Petrobras is Brazil’s state-controlled oil company.
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won the first round on Sunday 4 October by a narrow margin, Folha reported. More than 158 million voters can vote again on 25 October.
What It Means for US Readers
Lula’s ratings remain net negative, 41% to 35%, while prediction markets still favour Flávio Bolsonaro. For investors in Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed Brazilian shares, this is context for how close the race feels to voters.
A government rating is not a vote count, so these numbers show public mood rather than a result. The Brazil runoff poll tracker lists every survey so you can compare the pollsters.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 9:43 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$185.3 million in bets, which are wagers, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 17 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the fuel and small-business measures will change how voters rate the government. Datafolha has not yet published a later survey that tests this.
Government ratings measure opinion on the days of the interviews and do not forecast the result. How many regular-rating voters will turn out on 25 October is also unknown.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest Datafolha poll say about Lula’s government?
It finds 41% rate the government bad or terrible and 35% good or great, with 23% calling it regular. Folha de S.Paulo published the survey on Thursday 15 October.
How many Brazilians disapprove of Lula?
Datafolha found 50% disapprove of Lula’s work as president and 48% approve. A week earlier the split was 49% to 48%.
Did Lula’s rating change from last week?
Barely: negative ratings rose from 40% to 41%, while positive ratings stayed at 35%. Each move sits inside the 2-point margin of error.
Does a government rating predict the runoff?
No, it measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the vote. Voters can rate a government poorly and still choose its candidate.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 15 October 2026; O Liberal, 15 October 2026; O Liberal, 8 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief