Colombia’s Incoming Government Says a Blackout Would Cost $50 Million an Hour
Energy
Key Facts
—The number. A Colombia blackout could cost about 204 billion pesos ($50m) for every hour without power.
—The messenger. The warning came from vice president-elect José Manuel Restrepo, weeks before the new government takes office.
—The trigger. The El Nino dry pattern has begun and could turn severe into early 2027.
—The gap. Of 4,475 megawatts of new capacity due in 2026, only about 7 percent has begun commercial operation.
—The response. Restrepo wants public and private players to coordinate through sector committees before the August handover.
Colombia’s incoming government has put a striking price on the risk of the lights going out, warning that a Colombia blackout could cost the economy around 204 billion pesos, some fifty million dollars, for every hour without power.
The figure came from vice president-elect José Manuel Restrepo after a meeting with energy-industry leaders. It landed just weeks before the new administration takes office in August.
For a foreign investor, it is a rare thing: a politician attaching a hard number to a looming risk before it materialises, and doing so in public.
Why a Colombia blackout is a real risk
The root cause is water. Colombia draws the large majority of its electricity from hydroelectric dams, so a dry spell hits the power system directly.
That dry spell has arrived. Restrepo says the El Nino weather pattern has begun, and forecasters give it a very high chance of persisting, possibly turning severe, into early 2027.
New supply has not kept pace. Of some four thousand four hundred megawatts of capacity due to arrive this year, only a small fraction has entered commercial service, and most transmission projects are running late.
The grid is already straining. The system operator has issued scores of preventive load-shedding instructions this year, and the market sits under dozens of emergency and alert restrictions.
What the Colombia blackout warning signals
The memory behind the fear is vivid. A severe El Nino in the early 1990s drained the dams and forced months of rolling blackouts, an ordeal that reshaped energy policy for a generation.
The economic stakes are large. One think tank has estimated that a 1990s-style rationing event would knock more than a point off growth and destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Restrepo’s response is to coordinate. He wants public and private players working through sector committees, gathering full information in two stages before the government changes hands.
Industry has welcomed the tone. Generation executives at the meeting praised the incoming government’s openness to private investment as central to fixing the system.
For an outside reader, the signal is twofold. The new team is being unusually candid about the danger, and it is pinning its hopes on private capital to keep the lights on.
The technical warnings back him up. The grid operator projects an energy shortfall of nearly four thousand gigawatt-hours a year for the 2026-2027 period, a gap experts say leaves little room for error.
The outgoing government has acted too. Regulators created a scheme letting users voluntarily offer to cut consumption in the power market, a demand-side tool meant to ease the strain.
A stronger peso adds a twist. The Colombian currency has firmed sharply this year, which cushions the cost of imported fuel for thermal plants but squeezes exporters at the same time.
The clock is the real adversary. Analysts say the window to act is narrowing fast, and much of the fix, new plants and transmission lines, cannot be built before this dry season peaks.
One bottleneck stands out. A long-delayed transmission line meant to carry wind power from the northern La Guajira region has left gigawatts of potential clean energy stranded and unable to reach the grid.
How much would a Colombia blackout cost?
Vice president-elect José Manuel Restrepo estimates a blackout could cost the economy about 204 billion pesos, roughly fifty million dollars, for every hour without electricity. He described the risk as real as the El Nino dry season begins.
Why does Colombia face a blackout risk in 2026?
Colombia relies heavily on hydroelectric dams, and the El Nino dry pattern reduces the water they need. New generation and transmission projects have run late, leaving little cushion just as demand rises and reservoirs are pressured.
What is the new government doing about the Colombia blackout risk?
Restrepo wants public and private stakeholders to coordinate through sector committees and gather full information before the August handover. The incoming government is emphasising private investment to strengthen generation and transmission.
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