The Rio Times · Colombia Market Report
Morning Edition · March 24, 2026 · Covering March 23 Session
The Big Three
1
Trump announced a five-day pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure, claiming “productive conversations” — Tehran immediately denied any negotiations. The announcement triggered the most dramatic single-session oil reversal since the war began: Brent swung from an intraday high of $114.43 to a low of $96 before settling at $99.94, down 10.9% — its first close below $100 since March 11. Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied any talks, while Turkey and Egypt confirmed mediating between the parties in what may be the first coordinated diplomatic effort. Oxford Economics warned the Hormuz reopening is not expected until May regardless.
2
COLCAP held roughly flat near 2,230 as crosscurrents offset: the global risk-on rally battled the Ecopetrol drag from crashing oil. The index closed near its Friday level of 2,230.71, with the peso appreciating toward COP 3,708 per dollar as the DXY fell 0.5%. Ecopetrol, which had surged to COP 2,820 earlier in the session riding the morning oil spike to $114, reversed sharply as Brent plunged below $100 — a whipsaw of roughly COP 190 from high to low on the day. The USO strike threat remains unresolved, adding governance uncertainty on top of oil volatility.
3
Wall Street surged on the ceasefire signal: S&P 500 +1.13%, Dow +631 points, Nasdaq +1.39% — the best day since the war began. The VIX retreated from its two-week high, and the dollar index fell 0.5% as risk appetite returned. For Colombia, the dollar weakness is directly supportive: the peso strengthened, the TRM for March 24 will be set from Monday’s spot trading (current TRM COP 3,704.87 covers through March 24), and the carry advantage from the 10.25% BanRep rate reasserts itself when global risk aversion eases.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Close | Chg |
| MSCI COLCAP | ~2,230 | ~flat |
| Ecopetrol (BVC: ECO) | COP 2,820 | +3.11% |
| USD/COP (spot) | ~3,708 | −0.09% |
| Brent Crude | $99.94 | −10.92% |
| S&P 500 | 6,580.25 | +1.13% |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | unch |
02 Equities
The Colombia stock market COLCAP today navigated a session defined by the single most dramatic geopolitical pivot since the war began. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Colombian stock market and Latin American financial markets. The index held near 2,230 — roughly flat versus Friday — as two opposing forces cancelled out: the global risk-on rally triggered by Trump’s ceasefire announcement lifted financials and non-oil names, while Ecopetrol reversed sharply from its intraday highs as Brent collapsed below $100.
| Top Gainers | Chg |
| Ecopetrol | +3.11% |
| ISA | +2.77% |
| Grupo Argos | +2.70% |
| GEB | +2.67% |
| Pf Davivienda | +1.80% |
| Top Losers | Chg |
| Pf Bancolombia | −2.06% |
| ISA | −1.64% |
| Terpel | −1.48% |
| Grupo Aval Pf | −1.30% |
| Grupo Sura | −1.10% |
Ecopetrol was the session’s most volatile name. The stock opened strong, riding Brent’s early surge to $114.43, and reached COP 2,820 — near its highest level since October 2023. But the Trump announcement mid-session sent crude into freefall, and the stock gave back a significant portion of its gains. The COP 190 intraday range (2,630–2,820) illustrates the binary nature of the trade: Ecopetrol is now a direct proxy for the Hormuz outcome. The USO huelga threat — with 25,000 workers potentially mobilizing if CEO Ricardo Roa does not resign over his March 11 influence-trafficking indictment — remains unresolved and adds a domestic governance premium to the oil volatility.
03 Currency
The peso strengthened toward COP 3,708 per dollar on Monday as the DXY fell 0.5% following the Trump announcement. For Colombia, the ceasefire signal is a net positive for the peso through two channels: lower oil prices ease inflationary pressure (reducing the need for further BanRep hawkishness), and the return of global risk appetite supports EM currencies broadly. The TRM of COP 3,704.87 remains in effect through March 24; the new rate will be calculated from Monday’s spot market activity. Year-to-date, the peso retains a 1.39% appreciation against the dollar, and the 10.25% BanRep rate provides significant carry.
04 Technical Analysis
COLCAP’s flat close near 2,230 extends the consolidation range that has defined the index since mid-March. The MACD histogram at 2.06 remains barely positive, with signal lines at −34.58 and −36.63 still firmly negative — a configuration that suggests stalling bearish momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. RSI at 47.45/40.53 sits in neutral territory. The 200-day SMA at 1,987 is 10.9% below, confirming the primary uptrend is structurally intact. The 2,258 level (20-day EMA) is the immediate hurdle; a close above would signal re-acceleration toward 2,302.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Price | Source |
| Resistance 2 | 2,302 | Prior consolidation / MA cluster |
| Resistance 1 | 2,258 | 20-day EMA / near-term ceiling |
| Monday Close | ~2,230 | March 23, 2026 |
| Support 1 | 2,178 | Prior session low |
| Support 2 | 1,987 | 200-day SMA |
06 Global Context
For Colombia specifically, the oil crash to $99.94 is a double-edged development. Ecopetrol’s revenue and government royalties benefit from elevated crude, but the inflationary pass-through has been the primary justification for BanRep’s hawkish 100-bps hike to 10.25% in January. If oil prices stabilize below $100, it would ease inflation pressure and potentially reopen the path to rate cuts — a scenario that would support both equities and the peso. Oxford Economics cautioned that the Hormuz reopening is not expected before May even under a ceasefire scenario, and that Brent should average $114 in Q2 — suggesting the relief may be temporary.
07 Looking Ahead
The next five days are now governed by Trump’s ceasefire clock. If the pause holds and diplomatic channels produce concrete progress — with Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan mediating — oil prices could continue retreating, providing relief across LATAM markets. But Iran’s denial of any negotiations and Israel’s continued strikes on Tehran hours after the announcement introduce substantial risk that the pause collapses, sending oil back toward $112+. Domestically, the Ecopetrol–USO standoff and the presidential election cycle remain the key Colombia-specific catalysts. U.S. March PMI data and any further Hormuz developments will dominate the tape.
08 Verdict
Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, upgraded from Neutral. The Trump ceasefire announcement is the most significant geopolitical pivot since the war began, and if it holds, it unlocks the path to lower oil, easier BanRep policy, and a stronger peso — all supportive for Colombian equities. The primary uptrend above the 200-day SMA at 1,987 remains intact. A close above 2,258 would confirm re-acceleration. A collapse of the ceasefire and oil back above $112 would revert the bias to Cautiously Bullish. The five-day ceasefire window is the dominant variable.
Related: Colombia News | Latin America Markets | Brazil Economy