China’s Steel Demand Holds Iron Ore Steady Above $105

Steelmakers in China kept iron ore futures around $105.65 per tonne yesterday, driven by strong restocking ahead of winter construction projects.

The index rose from a seven‐day low of $104.23 to a peak of $106.75, reflecting healthy demand for 62% fines delivered to Chinese ports.

Behind the Numbers

China’s steel output fell 2.9% in August, but mills kept buying ore to refill inventories. They imported over 112 million tonnes of iron ore so far in September, while port stocks reached 132.6 million tonnes—still below last year’s high.

That gap between fresh imports and existing supplies let buyers maintain orders without flooding the market. Global liquidity also supported the rally.

The NDQ index, a measure of global money flow, climbed to 100.12 this week, helping base‐metals funds attract $642 million in net inflows. Traders funneled capital into exchange‐traded products tracking metal prices, bolstering ore futures.

Technical Signals

On the daily chart, the price trades above both the 50‐day average at $104.43 and the 200‐day average at $101.13. Shorter averages lean bullish: the 9-day EMA sits at $105.23 above the 21-day EMA at $104.64.

The 20-day Bollinger Bands narrowed, showing calm after a recent rally. The RSI sits at 63, leaving room for more upside before hitting overbought levels. On the four-hour chart, the MACD line crossed above its signal line, hinting at renewed buying in intraday sessions.

Market Makers’ View

Traders expect Beijing to keep funding infrastructure and property projects through winter. At the same time, they watch rising output from new mines in Australia and Guinea.

Those projects could ease supply tightness later this year. Market participants now focus on daily trading volumes and steel profit margins to gauge the next price move.

Why It Matters

Steel drives growth in construction, manufacturing and energy. China consumes over 70% of the world’s iron ore. Its buying decisions ripple across commodity markets and national budgets. When Chinese mills pause or pick up ore orders, global prices swing.

The iron ore price now sits at a crossroads. A break above $106.75 could push it toward $108.50. A slip below the 50-day average risks testing support near $104.20. For traders and policymakers alike, those levels will guide strategy in the days ahead.