Chile Stocks Rebound 1.89%: Copper at $6.08 Lifts IPSA, Peso

Chilean equities staged a forceful recovery on Wednesday as the S&P IPSA climbed 1.89% to close at 11,217.82, reclaiming the psychologically important 11,200 level after Tuesday’s 2.14% plunge — the index’s steepest single-day decline since Trump’s “Day of Liberation” tariff shock on April 7, 2025. The session opened at 11,009.28 (Tuesday’s close) and pushed steadily higher throughout the day, reaching an intraday high of 11,221.11 before settling just below.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chilean markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Colombia’s COLCAP closed the same session.

The rebound was broad-based but led by the same names that had dragged the index lower in recent sessions. SQM-B rose approximately 4%, recovering part of its losses from the ongoing Tianqi Lithium overhang — the Chinese shareholder (21.9% stake) announced on February 4 that it intends to sell up to 3.57 million Class A shares (1.25% of SQM’s total). CMPC gained 3.8% and Mallplaza added 3%, while Cencosud rose 2.3% and Itaú Chile climbed 2.8%. Among the laggards, Latam Airlines traded near CLP 26.55, still digesting the US$742.8 million secondary sale by Sixth Street Partners — the fund’s sixth liquidation under the Registration Rights Agreement dating from Latam’s Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Latam sale — 12 million ADR at US$61.90 each, underwritten by J.P. Morgan — settled on Wednesday. With the transaction, Sixth Street’s stake fell from 17.4% to 13.2%. Analysts at Bci Corredor de Bolsa maintained their CLP 34 price target, noting the discount represented an attractive entry point, while Credicorp Capital’s Ignacia Montt linked the recent price correction to anticipation of the secondary sale.

Meanwhile, the Telefónica Chile saga reached its conclusion. On Tuesday, Telefónica Spain confirmed the sale of 100% of its Chilean operations to a consortium of NJJ Holding (51%) and Millicom/Tigo (49%) for US$1,215 million, plus a conditional earn-out of up to US$150 million. The deal, which closed simultaneously with signing, ends 35 years of Telefónica’s presence in Chile. The new CEO — Carolina Vallejo Londoño, formerly Millicom’s Tigo CEO in El Salvador — was appointed immediately. Entel, the incumbent most exposed to competitive disruption from a reinvigorated Movistar/Tigo, saw its shares fall 12.6% on Tuesday (its worst session since March 2020) and remained under pressure on Wednesday at −1.6%.

The peso extended its appreciation trend on Wednesday, with the dollar closing at CLP 852.46 on the Dow Jones average — down 0.56% from Tuesday’s 857.23. On the Pepperstone feed, USD/CLP settled at 853.72 after opening at 852.80 and trading in a tight 851.51–858.59 range. The dollar has fallen 1.73% against the peso over the past week and 8.12% over the past twelve months.

The primary tailwind was copper. The metal surged 3% to approximately US$6.08 per pound on the LME, maintaining its position above US$13,000 per metric ton. Felipe Sepúlveda of Admirals Latinoamérica attributed the rally to “supply disruptions combined with robust structural demand from the energy transition and the expansion of AI-linked data centers.” Cochilco’s latest daily report (February 10) showed LME spot copper at 589.76 ¢US$/lb (US$13,002/t) and three-month futures at 594.12 ¢US$/lb (US$13,098/t), with the year-to-date average at 592.97 ¢US$/lb.

The Dollar Index contributed to peso strength, falling 0.25% to 96.3 after the mixed US jobs data: while the headline 130,000 payroll figure beat expectations, the massive 898,000 downward revision to 2025 employment reinforced the narrative of a decelerating labor market. Markets now price nearly 40% odds of three Fed rate cuts this year, up from the prior expectation of two. Cochilco projects copper averaging US$4.95/lb for 2026, though spot prices have consistently traded above that forecast.

Wednesday’s 1.89% bounce produced a solid green candle that recovered the 11,200 zone, though the index remains in the correction channel that began after the January 28 all-time high of 11,261.90. The session opened at 11,009.28 (Tuesday’s close — also the intraday low) and rallied to a high of 11,221.11 before closing at 11,217.82, just below the recent swing high near 11,261.

The moving average structure remains constructive. Price is trading well above the 200-day SMA at 9,218.89 (nearly 22% below current levels), confirming the primary uptrend is intact. The EMA cluster near 10,824–10,968 provides the first meaningful dynamic support band, while the Ichimoku cloud’s upper boundary near 10,835 acts as a further structural floor.

Momentum indicators are mixed. The RSI stands at 65.75/51.96 — the primary reading in the upper neutral zone while the smoothed line sits at mid-range, suggesting the index is neither overbought nor oversold after the recent correction. The MACD histogram at −83.20 remains in negative territory with the signal lines at 194.08/110.87, indicating that while the longer-term trend is bullish (both lines well above zero), near-term momentum has weakened since the January highs.

The peso’s appreciation trend accelerated on Wednesday, with the pair closing at 853.72 after trading in a 851.51–858.59 range. The candle formed a modest bullish reversal for the dollar intraday (the close was above the low), but the broader trend remains decisively bearish for USD/CLP — the pair is trading far below all major moving averages.

The 200-day SMA at 935.46 sits nearly 10% above spot, underscoring the magnitude of the peso rally since mid-2025. The EMA cluster in the 887–897 range provides the first major overhead resistance zone, with the Bollinger Band midline near 877 acting as an intermediate ceiling. The Ichimoku cloud, now visible above price in the 860–870 zone, confirms the bearish regime for the dollar.

The RSI at 36.28/33.97 is approaching oversold territory, with the smoothed reading at its lowest levels since the current peso bull run began. However, in strong trends, oversold readings can persist for extended periods. The MACD histogram is barely positive at 0.30 with signal lines at −11.09/−11.39 — deeply negative but showing the first hints of a potential momentum base, suggesting the downside pace may be moderating even as the structural trend remains peso-positive.

The US employment report dominated the macro calendar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 130,000 nonfarm payrolls for January 2026, well above the 70,000 consensus and the strongest month since December 2024. Health care led with 82,000 jobs, followed by social assistance (42,000) and construction (33,000). Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% monthly and 3.7% year-over-year, both above estimates. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%.

But the real story was the benchmark revisions. Total 2025 employment growth was slashed from 584,000 to just 181,000, an 898,000 downward adjustment — the second-largest negative revision on record after the 2009 financial crisis. Average monthly payroll gains for 2025 fell from 49,000 to just 15,000. As Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture noted, hiring breadth was “alarmingly narrow,” with health care and social assistance accounting for 95% of January’s gains. Federal government employment fell 34,000 and is now down 327,000 (−10.9%) from its October 2024 peak.

For Chile, the implications are asymmetrically positive. A weaker US labor market supports the case for continued Fed easing — markets now price nearly 40% odds of three rate cuts in 2026, up from two previously — which tends to weaken the dollar and channel flows into emerging market assets and commodities. The Banco Central de Chile’s monetary policy rate remains at 4.5% (held steady on January 27 after a cut in December 2025), and with annual inflation at just 2.8% as of January — below the 3% target for the first time in nearly five years — the positive carry and copper tailwind are structural supports for the peso.

Report compiled by The Rio Times • Data sources: Bolsa de Santiago, LarrainVial, Infobae, Diario Financiero, Diario Estrategia, TradingView, Cochilco, BLS, CNBC • Charts: TradingView (Pepperstone) • Published February 12, 2026