USD/CLP Slips Below 866 as Chilean Peso Strength Extends, IPSA Rebounds Past 11,480

KEY POINTS

• USD/CLP is trading near 865.07, consolidating after Friday’s rally failed to hold near 872. The peso has resumed its strengthening trend as copper stabilizes and Chile’s December GDP surprise feeds optimism.
• IPSA has rebounded to 11,482.71, recovering from last week’s pullback with a 0.67% gain. The index is testing the upper band of its recent range as momentum indicators remain constructive.
• Macro backdrop: Chile’s December GDP came in at 1.7% y/y (consensus: 1.0%), copper prices are stabilizing after a volatile week, and the Trump-India tariff deal announced Monday offers marginal relief to global risk sentiment.

USD/CLP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Current Price Action

USD/CLP is trading at 865.07 this morning, essentially flat after opening at 865.16. The pair continues to consolidate below Friday’s highs near 874, with the session range extremely tight (865.05–865.16 so far).

This follows the failed rally attempt from late January, where the pair spiked toward 872–874 before sellers stepped back in.

4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows price stabilizing after the sharp rejection from last week’s 874.49 high. Key observations:

• Price has pulled back into the cluster of moving averages between 865–867
• RSI sits at 44.62 (main line) with the average at 38.76, indicating neutral-to-slightly-bearish short-term momentum
• MACD histogram has turned marginally positive at 1.46, but the signal lines remain below zero at -2.61 and -4.07, suggesting the squeeze attempt is fragile
• The blue long-term moving average (near 915–920) sits well above price, confirming the broader downtrend remains intact

Daily Chart

The daily picture shows the peso’s strength more clearly:

• Price has fallen from the October highs near 30.20 (using the log scale shown) down to the current 29.36 area
• Daily RSI reads 37.41 (main) and 32.47 (average) — not yet oversold but approaching levels that have previously triggered bounces
• MACD remains in negative territory at -11.87/-11.88, confirming the medium-term bearish trend
• The green 200-day moving average near 939 acts as distant overhead resistance

Weekly Chart

The weekly view provides important context:

• The pair is testing the lower end of its 2-year range, having fallen from the December 2024 peak near 982
• RSI at 33.79 (main) and 25.30 (average) is approaching oversold territory on this timeframe
• MACD is deeply negative at -14.87 to -21.04, but the histogram is showing early signs of leveling off
• Key support from the 2024 lows near 857–862 is being tested

Key USD/CLP Levels

IPSA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Current Price Action

The S&P IPSA Index is trading at 11,482.71, up 0.67% on the session after opening at 11,406.54. The index bounced strongly from Friday’s lows near 11,291, suggesting buyers are defending the pullback zone aggressively.

4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a constructive rebound from last week’s consolidation:

• Price has pushed back above the 11,430–11,455 moving average cluster
• RSI reads 67.99 (main) and 59.49 (average) — elevated but not yet overbought
• MACD histogram is negative at -37.67, but the signal lines at 144.29/106.61 remain in positive territory, suggesting the dip was a pause rather than a reversal
• The index is testing the upper end of its recent 11,350–11,500 range

Daily Chart

The daily structure remains solidly bullish:

• The powerful rally from September’s 9,090 level to the recent 11,500+ highs remains intact
• Price is holding above all major moving averages (orange/purple/blue bands between 10,035–10,770)
• Daily RSI at 75.22 (main) and 68.80 (average) is in overbought territory but has sustained these levels during the rally
• MACD shows strong positive momentum at 293.56/278.49

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart reveals the magnitude of the rally:

• IPSA has climbed from the 6,660 level in early 2024 to current levels near 11,480 — a gain of over 72%
• RSI is deeply overbought at 84.05 (main) and 80.40 (average), the highest readings in years
• MACD momentum at 738.02/631.47 confirms the powerful trend
• The index is now far extended from its 200-week moving average near 6,660

Key IPSA Levels

NEWS & MACRO INTEGRATION

Chile’s December GDP Surprises to the Upside

The most significant domestic catalyst this week came from Chile’s December economic activity data, released yesterday. The IMACEC proxy came in at 1.7% y/y, well above the 1.0% consensus, driven by strong momentum in non-mining sectors.

Commerce posted solid gains (+2.3% m/m), supported by wholesale activity and automotive sales during the Cyber sales event.

Public investment also accelerated sharply (+25% y/y in December), allowing the government to execute 87.9% of its approved investment budget.

Scotiabank notes that Chile’s 2025 GDP closed at 2.3%, slightly below the central bank’s 2.4% estimate but better than feared given the mining sector headwinds.

For 2026, the firm maintains a 2.5% growth forecast, with investment expected to grow 5–8% as mining and energy projects materialize.

Market implication: The GDP surprise supports the peso’s strength and IPSA’s resilience, as it reduces recession concerns and validates the central bank‘s decision to hold rates at 4.5%.

Copper Prices Stabilize After Volatile Week

Copper fell more than 5% last week to around $5.50/lb, hitting one-month lows as speculative froth unwound following January’s record highs near $13,000/ton.

The selloff was most pronounced in China, where intense investor interest had added to the rally’s volatility. However, prices are stabilizing this morning as the market digests the pullback.

Goldman Sachs estimates copper‘s fair value at around $11,500/ton, close to their Q4 2026 forecast of $11,200/ton, suggesting the recent retreat has brought prices closer to fundamentals.

J.P. Morgan remains bullish, targeting $12,500/mt by Q2 2026 based on supply deficits of ~330 kmt.

Market implication: Copper’s stabilization is supportive for the peso and Chilean equities, though the metal remains 15% below its January peak.

The OECD notes that Chile’s primary copper exports to the US are exempt from the 10% reciprocal tariff, limiting direct trade impact.

Trump-India Tariff Deal Offers Marginal Risk-On Signal

President Trump announced Monday that the US and India have agreed to a trade deal, lowering the baseline tariff rate on Indian goods to 18% from 25%.

The White House also confirmed it will drop a separate 25% “secondary” tariff on India related to Russian oil purchases.

While the deal is primarily symbolic for Chile, it represents a modest positive for global risk sentiment at a time when tariff uncertainty remains elevated.

The Supreme Court is still deliberating on the legality of Trump’s broader IEEPA tariff authority, with a ruling expected in early 2026.

J.P. Morgan estimates IEEPA measures account for roughly 61% of the year-to-date increase in US tariffs (~$180bn annualized), and a ruling against the administration could create short-term volatility.

Market implication: The India deal is a marginal positive for emerging market currencies including the peso, but the broader tariff landscape remains a risk factor.

President-Elect Kast’s Economic Agenda

Markets continue to digest the implications of José Antonio Kast’s election victory in December. The right-wing president-elect has announced plans to cut public spending by $6 billion over 18 months and lower the corporate tax rate.

While the pro-market agenda has supported IPSA’s rally, execution risk remains given the divided Senate and the need for cross-aisle negotiation.

CROSS-MARKET SUMMARY

This morning’s setup shows a notable divergence:

Bottom line: The peso is consolidating its recent gains as Chile’s economic data continues to surprise positively. IPSA’s rebound from Friday’s lows suggests the rally isn’t done, though overbought readings warrant caution on new longs. The risk calendar is relatively light this week, with focus shifting to US data and any further tariff developments.

Data as of February 3, 2026, 08:17 UTC. Charts from TradingView via Pepperstone and BCS.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Chilean markets and Latin American financial news.

For context on regional markets, see Brazil’s Ibovespa for the same session.

Also tracking regional peers: Colombia’s COLCAP closed the same session.