Brazil’s Morning Call for Friday, March 13, 2026

Where We Left Off THURSDAY, MAR 12 — B3 CLOSE

The Ibovespa opened at 183,969 — essentially unchanged from Wednesday’s close — then fell relentlessly to close at 179,284.49 (−2.55%), its worst session since March 5 and largest point loss (−4,685) in two weeks. Volume surged to R$35.6 billion, well above the 50-day average of R$22.2 billion, confirming institutional selling. The high was the open; the low was 178,495 in the final hour.

The session’s catalyst was Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declaring that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as a pressure tool — directly contradicting Trump’s “war is very complete” narrative from Monday. Brent surged 9.90% to $101.56, the highest settlement since 2022 and the second time above $100 in a week. The IEA’s 400-million-barrel SPR release announcement and slashed supply forecast (from 2.4M to 1.1M bpd growth) confirmed the severity of the disruption but failed to cap prices.

Domestically, the IPCA at +0.70% MoM (vs 0.65% consensus) was the “fogo amigo” (friendly fire). Education costs jumped 5.21% on seasonal tuition resets, and transport remained pressured. The 12-month rate fell from 4.44% to 3.81%, but the miss vs consensus triggered a violent DI curve repricing: Jan/27 hit 13.99% (+28 bps), the highest since October 2025. The market shifted from confidently pricing a 50 bps Copom cut to splitting between 25 bps and 50 bps.

The government’s emergency response — a 12% export tax on petroleum, zeroed PIS/Cofins on diesel, and a diesel subsidy totaling ~R$30 billion — added fiscal uncertainty. Petrobras stocks split: PETR3 +1.45%, PETR4 +0.45% on oil strength, but the export tax clouds the earnings outlook. CSN collapsed 14.45%, Yduqs −14.83%, Embraer −11.01%. Banks bled: Santander −4.44%, Itaú −2.73%. In New York, the S&P 500 fell 1.52% to ~6,673, the Dow dropped 1.56%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.78%. The 30-year bond auction tailed, with yield at 4.871%.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, MAR 12 CLOSE

What to Watch FRIDAY CATALYSTS

The 08:30 ET data wave is the session’s anchor: US GDP Q4 second estimate (cons: +1.4%, down from Q3’s +4.4%), Core PCE January (cons: +0.4% MoM / +3.1% YoY — the Fed’s preferred gauge), Personal Income (cons: +0.5%), Personal Spending (cons: +0.3%), and Durable Goods (cons: +1.1%). A hot Core PCE reading (above +0.4%) would push Fed cut expectations beyond December and send yields higher. A soft GDP print reinforces the recession side of the stagflation equation.

At 10:00 ET, Michigan Consumer Sentiment (cons: 55.0) includes the 5-year inflation expectations reading (prev: 3.3%) — critical for understanding whether consumers are anchoring oil-driven inflation into long-term expectations. JOLTS job openings (cons: 6.760M) test whether labor demand is softening in line with the −92K NFP. The Baker Hughes rig count (14:00 ET) shows the US production response to $100+ oil.

Domestically, Brazilian services sector growth (08:00 BRT) provides a read on economic momentum. The Copom decision is now 5 days away. The IPCA miss, the DI curve repricing, and the government’s R$30 billion fiscal intervention have fundamentally changed the setup. The 50 bps cut is no longer the base case — the market is now split between 25 bps and 50 bps, with some pricing a hold if oil stays above $100.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

The Ibovespa closed Thursday at 179,284.49 (−2.55%). Daily RSI plunged to 43.61 (MA: 55.86) — crashing back below 50 after just two sessions above it. MACD histogram remains positive at 1,981 but is compressing rapidly (MACD: −1,501, signal: 480). The 50-day SMA at ~183,874 is now overhead resistance again — Wednesday’s close was above it, Thursday’s close is 4,590 points below.

Resistance: 179,937 (intermediate SMA) → 182,021 (Thursday’s mid-range) → 183,874 (50-day SMA) → 183,969 (Wednesday’s close).

Support: 178,495 (Thursday’s low) → 177,570 (March 9 low area) → 175,384 (lower Bollinger) → 174,965 (200-day SMA).

Thursday’s bearish engulfing candle (opened at Wednesday’s high, closed near the week’s low) with volume 60% above the 50-day average is a classic exhaustion pattern. The 200-day SMA at ~174,965 is back as the active downside target if Brent holds above $100 into the Copom. The only upside scenario is a geopolitical de-escalation headline or a dramatically soft PCE today. Bias: defensive, targeting the 200-day SMA.

Copom Watch NEXT MEETING: MAR 17-18 · T−5 DAYS

The Selic sits at 15.00% with 5 days to Copom. Thursday’s triple shock — IPCA miss, $100+ Brent, and DI curve explosion — has fundamentally altered the rate decision landscape. The DI Jan/27 contract jumped 28 bps to 13.99%, its highest since October 2025. The market is now split between a 25 bps cut (cautious, data-dependent signal) and a 50 bps cut (honoring the January forward guidance). A hold is not impossible if Brent stays above $100 through Monday.

The IPCA at +0.70% (+3.81% YoY) was above the 0.65% consensus but the 12-month rate still fell sharply from 4.44% — the disinflation trend is intact at the headline level. However, services inflation remains sticky and the education component (+5.21%) was the largest in years. The qualitative composition matters more to the Copom than the headline: if core and services are running hot, even a benign headline won’t justify an aggressive cut.

The government’s fiscal intervention adds a new variable. The 12% oil export tax reduces Petrobras’ export revenue, the zeroed diesel PIS/Cofins and diesel subsidy cost R$30 billion, and the combined package signals that the government prioritizes short-term price control over fiscal discipline in an election year. The Copom must now weigh whether the fiscal loosening offsets the disinflationary effect of controlled pump prices.

Economic Calendar FRIDAY, MAR 13

Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE

Thursday was a bloodbath across all five LatAm indices — the first synchronized selloff since March 9. COLCAP led the losses at −4.53%, hammered by the Hormuz closure (Colombia is an oil exporter but the global risk-off overwhelmed the commodity tailwind). Mexico’s IPC fell 2.18% to 66,086 (RSI 35.86, now oversold), reflecting US demand fears and tariff vulnerability. MERVAL dropped 2.71% and IPSA shed 1.00%. The Ibovespa’s 2.55% loss was middle-of-the-pack for the region.

The RSI deterioration is sharp: IPC at 35.86 (oversold), MERVAL at 37.19 (oversold), COLCAP at 38.87 (nearing oversold), IPSA at 39.79 (OS watch), and Ibovespa at 43.61 (neutral but falling fast). The improvement from Monday–Wednesday has been fully reversed. If Friday brings another down day, the Ibovespa will approach oversold territory again and the 200-day SMA at ~174,965 becomes the next technical magnet.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Brent surged 9.90% to $101.56, the highest settlement since 2022 and the second close above $100 in a week. The trigger: Khamenei’s explicit statement that Hormuz will remain closed. The IEA’s 400-million-barrel SPR release and slashed supply forecast (2.4M → 1.1M bpd growth) confirmed the structural severity. WTI rose proportionally. With Hormuz explicitly declared closed by Iran’s leadership, the $85–92 range that held Tuesday–Wednesday is broken — the new range is $95–110 unless a ceasefire materializes.

Iron Ore fell ~1.82% to ~$108 as the global risk-off trade hit metals. The recession narrative is winning over the energy-cost-push narrative for iron ore.

Gold rose ~0.96% to ~$5,250, benefiting from the flight to quality as equities sold off. Gold is now reasserting its safe-haven role after Monday’s margin-call anomaly.

USD/BRL jumped 1.61% to R$5.2423, erasing three sessions of real strength. The IPCA miss, DI curve repricing, and government fiscal intervention combined to reverse the “Brazil as oil beneficiary” narrative. The 12% oil export tax directly reduces Petrobras’ export revenue and the current account benefit that had been supporting the real. The R$5.15 level that held for three days is gone; the next resistance is R$5.30.

DXY surged ~0.71% to ~99.20, reasserting dollar strength as the safe-haven trade returned. The three-day DXY decline (from 98.74 to 98.50) was fully reversed and then some.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE