Today’s world economy news today for March 13, 2026 covers Brent crude closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 after Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, the US trade deficit crushing expectations by narrowing to $54.5 billion on record exports, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker jumping to 2.7% on the trade data surge. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.
The Big Three
Economic Dashboard
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Trade Balance (Jan) | −$54.5B | −$66.6B | −$72.9B | ▲ Beat |
| US Housing Starts (Jan) | 1.487M | 1.340M | 1.387M | ▲ Beat |
| US Building Permits (Jan) | 1.376M | 1.420M | 1.455M | ▼ Miss |
| US Initial Jobless Claims | 213K | 214K | 214K | ▬ In Line |
| US Continuing Claims | 1,850K | 1,850K | 1,871K | ▬ In Line |
| Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | ▲ Beat |
| US 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.871% | — | 4.750% | ▼ Miss |
| Italy Unemployment Rate (Q4) | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | ▲ Beat |
| India CPI YoY (Feb) | 3.21% | 3.10% | 2.73% | ▼ Miss |
| Brazil CPI YoY (Feb) | 3.81% | 3.77% | 4.44% | ▼ Miss |
| Canada Trade Balance (Jan) | −C$3.65B | −C$1.10B | −C$1.30B | ▼ Miss |
| South Africa Current Account (Q4) | +50.2B ZAR | — | −72.0B | ▲ Beat |
| Argentina CPI YoY (Feb) | 33.2% | 32.7% | 32.4% | ▼ Miss |
| Peru Interest Rate (Mar) | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% | ▬ In Line |
| US Natural Gas Storage | −38B cf | −42B | −132B | ▲ Beat |
Europe
Italy’s labor market surprise anchors European resilience
Italy’s quarterly unemployment rate plunged to 5.6% in Q4, smashing the 6.1% consensus and matching the prior reading. The half-point undershoot is the largest positive surprise in Italian labor data this cycle, suggesting the country’s employment expansion is accelerating even as the broader eurozone economy navigates the energy shock from the Iran conflict.
Italian bond auctions told a divergent story. The 3-year BTP cleared at 2.75%, up sharply from 2.36% previously, while the 15-year settled at 3.85% versus 4.03% prior. The curve flattening reflects near-term inflation anxiety offset by longer-term confidence in fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, the 7-year cleared at 3.34%, up from 3.02%.
European equities buckled under the oil shock. The Stoxx 600 fell roughly 0.7%, with the DAX dropping 1.4% and the FTSE 100 losing 0.6%. Bank stocks led the decline as investor concerns over Middle East exposure intensified. Chemicals and utilities were the only sectors to post gains, benefiting from the energy repricing.
Consumer sentiment across the continent deteriorated further. Germany’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 44.73 from 47.07, France edged up slightly to 42.03 from 41.15 but remains depressed, and the UK slid to 46.0 from 49.0. The aggregate eurozone reading improved marginally to 51.21 from 49.99, though confidence erosion in core economies paints a darker picture.
Italy’s labor beat is genuinely constructive, but the oil shock overpowers everything. European equities and sentiment are deteriorating, and the BTP auction curve signals near-term inflation anxiety. Bearish tilt on the region until energy stabilizes.
United States
Trade deficit crush meets oil-driven equity rout
The trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January versus $66.6 billion expected, with exports surging 5.5% to a record $302.1 billion. Industrial supplies including nonmonetary gold and capital goods led the export gains. Imports fell 0.7% as pharmaceutical and automotive shipments declined. The year-over-year deficit reduction of 57.6% marks the last clean trade snapshot before the Iran war disrupts global commerce.
Housing starts surprised to the upside at 1.487 million against the 1.340 million consensus, rising 7.2% month-over-month. However, building permits fell to 1.376 million versus 1.420 million expected, signaling that the forward pipeline is weakening even as completions catch up. Single-family starts dropped 2.8%, dragged by weather in the Northeast and South.
Wall Street posted its worst session of 2026 as oil prices dominated sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 1.52% to 6,672.62, the Dow shed 739 points to close below 47,000 for the first time this year, and the Nasdaq lost 1.78%. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.24%, a five-week high, while the 30-year bond auction tailed at 4.871% versus 4.750% prior — a sign of weakening demand for long-duration Treasuries amid inflation fears.
Initial jobless claims held steady at 213,000, essentially matching the 214,000 forecast, and the four-week average ticked down to 212,000. Natural gas storage drew 38 billion cubic feet versus the 42 billion expected, a smaller-than-forecast withdrawal. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow jumped to 2.7% from 2.1% on the trade data, but this reading predates the oil shock’s economic impact.
The trade data is backward-looking good news that won’t survive the war. Equities are pricing in the stagflationary reality: $100 oil, 4.24% yields, and a Fed trapped between inflation and a softening labor market. The 30-year auction tail is particularly ominous for fiscal sustainability.
Asia-Pacific
India inflation reaccelerates as Asian equities retreat on oil
India’s February CPI came in at 3.21% year-over-year, above the 3.10% consensus and sharply higher than January’s 2.73%. The acceleration arrives at a precarious moment for the Reserve Bank of India, which had been building a case for further easing. With crude oil now above $100 and India importing roughly 85% of its petroleum needs, the inflation outlook has darkened considerably.
Asian equity markets fell across the board. The Nikkei 225 dropped 1.6% to 54,152 as the yen weakened past 159 against the dollar. The Hang Seng declined 0.6% to around 25,737 with property and financials leading losses. Mainland Chinese markets also retreated, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.6% amid reports of a new US trade investigation into major partners.
South Korea’s M2 money supply growth moderated to 7.1% in January from 7.4%, while the consumer sentiment PCSI surged to 49.99 from 45.89 — a notable rebound in confidence despite the regional risk-off backdrop. Japan’s PCSI also improved to 42.42 from 41.33, though both readings remain below the 50 neutral threshold.
The oil price surge through the Strait of Hormuz disruption is now the dominant macro variable for the entire region. Asia-Pacific economies are overwhelmingly net energy importers, and the move from $60 to $100 Brent in under two weeks represents a material terms-of-trade shock. Central banks face an impossible trilemma of growth support, inflation containment, and currency defense.
India’s inflation beat is the canary in the coal mine for the region. At $100 Brent, every net-importing Asian economy faces imported inflation that central banks cannot fight without crushing growth. Defensive positioning warranted across the region.
Latin America & Africa
Brazil CPI sticky, Argentina reaccelerates, South Africa flips to surplus
Brazil’s February CPI printed at 3.81% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.77% consensus but down sharply from January’s 4.44%. Monthly inflation of 0.70% exceeded the 0.65% forecast, suggesting underlying price pressures remain persistent. The Banco Central do Brasil’s easing window, which had been narrowing, may now be fully shut if crude prices remain elevated.
Argentina’s February CPI reaccelerated to 33.2% year-over-year versus 32.7% expected and 32.4% prior, with the monthly pace holding at 2.9%. The stalling of disinflation progress is a setback for the Milei government’s stabilization narrative. Oil price surges pose additional risks for Argentina’s energy import bill, partially offset by rising Vaca Muerta production.
South Africa’s current account swung to a surplus of 50.2 billion rand in Q4, a dramatic reversal from the prior quarter’s 72.0 billion rand deficit. The surplus equals 0.6% of GDP versus the prior −0.9%. Meanwhile, mining production rose 4.6% in January, accelerating from the 2.8% prior, and manufacturing production rebounded 1.5% month-over-month after a 1.3% decline.
Peru’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 4.25% as expected, maintaining a steady hand amid regional uncertainty. Peru’s January trade surplus widened to $4.622 billion from $3.999 billion, bolstered by strong commodity exports. Canada’s trade deficit widened sharply to C$3.65 billion versus the C$1.10 billion consensus, with wholesale sales falling 1.0% against the −0.6% forecast.
South Africa’s current account flip is genuinely positive, and Peru’s commodity surplus is holding. However, Brazil’s sticky inflation and Argentina’s reacceleration complicate the regional easing picture. Oil at $100 is a headwind for net importers like Brazil but a tailwind for exporters like Colombia and Ecuador. Mixed outlook.
Previously: Global Economy Briefing — March 12, 2026. Sources include US Bureau of Economic Analysis, CNBC Markets, and Atlanta Fed GDPNow.