Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for May 2, 2025
Brazil’s markets are primed for a pivotal day as local and global economic data shape views on trade, investor confidence, and commodity demand. These are crucial for Brazil’s export-driven economy, navigating high inflation and robust capital inflows.
At 09:00 AM (BRT), the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April (previous: 51.8) will provide a snapshot of Brazil’s industrial activity, a key indicator of economic health amid global trade volatility and high domestic interest rates.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, potentially bolstering investor sentiment, while a contraction could raise concerns about industrial resilience.
Globally, at 05:00 AM (EST) / 06:00 AM (BRT), the Eurozone CPI (YoY) for April (consensus: 2.1%, previous: 2.2%) will signal inflationary pressures in a major market for Brazilian exports.
Lower inflation could ease ECB policy tightening, supporting demand for Brazilian commodities, while persistent pressures may dampen trade optimism.
Also at 05:00 AM (EST), the Eurozone Unemployment Rate for March (consensus: 6.1%, previous: 6.1%) will reflect labor market conditions, influencing consumer demand and trade flows. Stable unemployment could sustain export demand, while a rise might temper growth expectations.
In the United States, at 08:30 AM (EST) / 09:30 AM (BRT), Nonfarm Payrolls for April (consensus: 129K, previous: 228K) and the Unemployment Rate for April (consensus: 4.2%, previous: 4.2%) will gauge labor market strength in Brazil’s largest trading partner.
Strong job growth could drive commodity demand, supporting Brazil’s exports, while weaker data may signal softer trade flows. At 10:00 AM (EST) / 11:00 AM (BRT), Factory Orders (MoM) for March (consensus: 4.2%, previous: 0.6%) will measure industrial demand.
A robust increase could lift Brazil’s commodity exports, while a shortfall may exacerbate demand concerns. These releases are pivotal as they frame Brazil’s industrial outlook, trade resilience, and export performance in a volatile global environment marked by trade uncertainties and commodity price fluctuations.
Economic Agenda for May 2, 2025
Brazil
- 09:00 AM – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 51.8. Tracks industrial activity, signaling economic health and influencing investor confidence.
Eurozone
- 05:00 AM (EST) – CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 2.1%, previous 2.2%. Measures inflation trends, shaping ECB policy and demand for Brazilian exports.
- 05:00 AM (EST) – Unemployment Rate (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 6.1%, previous 6.1%. Reflects labor market conditions, impacting consumer demand and trade flows.
United States
- 08:30 AM (EST) – Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 129K, previous 228K. Gauges job growth, influencing commodity demand and Brazil’s export outlook.
- 08:30 AM (EST) – Unemployment Rate (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 4.2%, previous 4.2%. Measures labor market health, impacting trade and global risk sentiment.
- 10:00 AM (EST) – Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 4.2%, previous 0.6%. Tracks industrial demand, influencing Brazil’s commodity exports.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s B3 stock exchange was closed for Labor Day on May 1, pausing after the Ibovespa ended the previous session at 135,067 points, down 0.02%. This minor drop halted a seven-day rally and reflected a market balancing global volatility with local strengths.
Data from the B3 and recent trading show that Brazilian equities have outperformed many peers in 2025, with the Ibovespa up 12.3% since January. Small-cap stocks gained 8.3% in April, while real estate and consumer-linked shares posted double-digit returns.
These gains stand out as the S&P 500 lost 0.9% in April and 5.5% year-to-date. Brazil’s market story remains rooted in its strong export base and high interest rates. The Central Bank’s Selic rate sits at 14.25%, the highest since 2016, attracting foreign capital.
The Brazilian real traded at 5.62 per US dollar, its firmest level this year. March’s trade surplus reached $8.2 billion, with exports up 5.5% year-on-year, supported by redirected oil and soy shipments to China and higher iron ore prices.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Microsoft and Meta Platforms drove Wall Street higher after delivering profits for the start of the year that were even bigger than analysts expected. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% Thursday and was back within 8.8% of its record set earlier this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.5%. Treasury yields swiveled in the bond market following some mixed reports on the economy.
Yields initially sank after a report showed more U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than expected, but they later recovered following a better-than-feared update on U.S. manufacturing.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose 35.08 points, or 0.6%, to 5,604.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.60 points, or 0.2%, to 40,752.96.
The Nasdaq composite rose 264.40 points, or 1.5%, to 17,710.74. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 11.74 points, or 0.6%, to 1,975.86.
Commodities
Oil Prices
Crude oil rebounded from multi-month lows, with Brent and WTI rallying as May trading began. Brent crude rose to $63 per barrel, supported by supply concerns and easing trade tensions.
This uptick aids Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues, though global demand uncertainties persist. Today’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Factory Orders data will signal industrial demand trends.
Gold Prices
Gold rebounded from a two-week low to $2,670 per ounce, driven by renewed safe-haven demand as markets awaited U.S. jobs data. This strength supports Brazil’s mining sector, offering export stability despite broader commodity volatility. Today’s Eurozone CPI and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data may influence sentiment.
Silver Prices
Silver edged upward to $33.20 per ounce, navigating trade tensions and a persistent supply deficit. Steady industrial demand in solar and electronics supports Brazil’s mining exports. Today’s U.S. Factory Orders data will guide industrial demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper rebounded to $4.50 per pound amid trade optimism and supply constraints, offering support to Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Global economic concerns linger, but today’s U.S. Factory Orders and Nonfarm Payrolls data will clarify demand outlooks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin climbed to $95,000, supported by ETF hopes and policy shifts, bolstering Brazil’s fintech sector. Altcoins showed mixed performance, with regulatory developments in focus. Today’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Factory Orders data may sway sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices continued their downward trend with the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index opening at $96.65 on Friday morning, May 2, 2025.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s machinery industry grew in Q1 2025, driven by agricultural equipment demand, but rising imports and high interest rates threaten recovery. The gas market faces a new era of competition and supply growth, reshaping energy dynamics. Today’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will signal industrial stability.
Petrobras
Petrobras benefited from a crude oil rebound, with Brent at $63 per barrel, supporting export revenues. Operational resilience persists despite global demand concerns. Today’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Factory Orders data will shape energy demand outlooks.
Vale
Vale navigated copper’s rebound to $4.50 per pound and rising iron ore prices, bolstered by China’s demand. Strategic focus on critical minerals offers long-term potential. Today’s U.S. Factory Orders and Nonfarm Payrolls data will guide commodity demand.
Gol
Gol announced a deal to exit U.S. bankruptcy, restructuring $1.4 billion in debt and securing $950 million in financing. This reshapes its future, boosting investor confidence in Brazil’s aviation sector. Today’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will assess broader economic trends.
Equatorial
Equatorial’s Q1 2025 EBITDA rose 13%, driven by distribution and renewable energy growth. A R$600 million dividend payout signals confidence, though high interest rates pose risks. Today’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will influence utility sector sentiment.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+1.55%
174,576.80
+1.55%
65,522.56
-0.38%
11,450.75
-0.76%
3,009,029
+0.46%
2,508.47
-0.09%
60,117.56
+0.55%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,576.80 | +1.55% | +21.85% | 171,906.72 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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