Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 26, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are set for a pivotal trading session today, shaped by a mix of domestic economic releases and global developments that could influence investor sentiment and market dynamics.
Today’s economic calendar in Brazil features the release of the CAGED Employment Evolution Index and Foreign Exchange Flow data, both at 2:30 PM local time (5:30 PM GMT).
The CAGED index tracks formal job creation, offering insights into labor market strength and its potential to fuel consumer spending and inflationary pressures.
The Foreign Exchange Flow data reveals the balance of currency entering and exiting Brazil, critical for assessing the Brazilian real’s stability and investor confidence in the economy amid global uncertainties.
These releases matter as they reflect Brazil’s domestic economic resilience and its attractiveness to foreign capital, especially under persistent inflationary and fiscal challenges.
Globally, significant events include Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate data at 2:00 AM GMT, signaling consumer sentiment in Europe’s largest economy, which influences demand for Brazilian exports.
In the U.S., key releases such as Building Permits at 8:00 AM EST, New Home Sales at 10:00 AM EST, and Crude Oil Inventories at 10:00 AM EST, alongside FOMC Member Bostic’s speech at 12:00 PM EST and the 7-Year Note Auction at 1:00 PM EST, could sway housing trends, oil prices, and Treasury yields—factors that ripple through global risk appetite and commodity markets affecting Brazil.
Elsewhere, Japan’s BoJ Core CPI at 12:00 AM GMT and Australia’s Private New Capital Expenditure at 7:30 PM GMT provide additional context on inflation and investment trends in Asia, key trading partners for Brazil.
These events collectively shape Brazil’s export outlook, currency stability, and investor flows, making today a critical juncture for market participants.
Economic Agenda for February 26, 2025
Brazil
2:30 PM (Local Time) – CAGED Employment Evolution Index: This indicator tracks formal job creation, providing a snapshot of labor market health. Strong job growth could signal robust domestic demand but may also heighten inflation concerns, influencing the Central Bank’s policy decisions.
2:30 PM (Local Time) – Foreign Exchange Flow: This measures the net flow of foreign currency into Brazil, reflecting investor sentiment and capital movement. A positive flow could bolster the real, while a negative shift might pressure the currency amid global risk dynamics.
The Americas
8:00 AM (EST) – USD – Building Permits (Jan): Actual: TBD; Consensus: 1.483M; Previous: 1.482M. This gauge of future construction activity hints at U.S. housing market strength, impacting commodity demand relevant to Brazil.
8:30 AM (EST) – CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan): Actual: TBD; Consensus: TBD; Previous: -0.2%. A shift in Canadian wholesale activity could affect regional trade dynamics linked to Brazil.
10:00 AM (EST) – USD – Crude Oil Inventories: Actual: TBD; Consensus: 2.500M; Previous: 4.633M. Changes in U.S. oil stockpiles influence global oil prices, critical for Brazil’s energy sector.
10:00 AM (EST) – USD – Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Actual: TBD; Consensus: TBD; Previous: 1.472M. A key subset of oil inventory data, impacting energy market sentiment.
10:00 AM (EST) – USD – New Home Sales (MoM) (Jan): Actual: TBD; Consensus: TBD; Previous: 3.6%. This reflects U.S. housing demand, tied to economic resilience and commodity flows.
10:00 AM (EST) – USD – New Home Sales (Jan): Actual: TBD; Consensus: 679K; Previous: 698K. Absolute sales figures provide further insight into U.S. consumer strength.
12:00 PM (EST) – USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks: His comments could signal Federal Reserve policy directions, affecting U.S. yields and emerging market capital flows.
1:00 PM (EST) – USD – 7-Year Note Auction: Actual: TBD; Consensus: TBD; Previous: 4.457%. The yield outcome could shift Treasury rates, influencing global investor behavior.
Europe
2:00 AM (GMT) – EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Mar): Actual: -24.7; Consensus: -21.7; Previous: -22.6. A weaker-than-expected reading suggests declining consumer confidence, potentially softening demand for Brazilian goods.
Rest of the World
12:00 AM (GMT) – JPY – BoJ Core CPI (YoY): Actual: 2.2%; Consensus: 2.0%; Previous: 1.9%. Rising Japanese inflation could prompt tighter policy, impacting global risk sentiment.
7:30 PM (GMT) – AUD – Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4): Actual: TBD; Consensus: 0.6%; Previous: 1.1%. A slowdown in Australian investment might signal weaker commodity demand, affecting Brazil’s export sectors.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, rose 0.46% on February 25, closing at 125,983.40 points. This uptick followed the release of February’s IPCA-15 inflation preview, which rose 1.23%—above January’s 0.11% but below the expected 1.35%
The Brazilian real held steady at R$5.75 against the U.S. dollar, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar globally, despite briefly topping R$5.80 earlier.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street retreated as U.S. consumer worries over inflation and tariffs grew. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 5,955.25, marking its fourth consecutive decline after a recent peak. The Nasdaq composite dropped 1.4% to 19,026.39, dragged by losses in high-growth stocks like Nvidia and Tesla.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, rising 0.4% to 43,621.16, lifted by gains in stocks like Home Depot after solid earnings. Treasury yields dipped as investors sought safety, while Bitcoin saw sharp declines amid broader market unease.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices dropped sharply as economic concerns overshadowed supply dynamics. The decline reflected global market jitters, potentially pressuring Brazil’s energy sector despite its oil export strength.
Gold Prices
Gold retreated from record highs as profit-taking and tariff uncertainties took hold. After peaking near $2,954 per ounce, the metal’s pullback highlights shifting investor priorities amid volatile markets.
Cryptocurrency Market
The cryptocurrency market plunged as Bitcoin broke key support levels, stabilizing near $92,000 after testing $93,205. A $1.5 billion Ethereum hack on Bybit fueled bearish sentiment, with altcoins like Solana facing steep technical declines and panic selling.
Companies and Markets
Embraer (EMBR3): Secured a $1.5 billion order, reinforcing its global aerospace presence. Read more…
IRB Brasil (IRBR3): Recovery gained momentum, though challenges persist in its reinsurance operations. Read more…
Casas Bahia (BHIA3): Shares plunged 65% as the retailer grappled with operational and market pressures. Read more…
Grupo Mateus (GMAT3): Balanced growth with rising costs in Q4 2024, navigating retail challenges. Read more…
Hidrovias do Brasil (HBSA3): Posted a R$446 million loss, strained by water crises and currency shifts.
Banese (BGIP4): Recorded a record R$147 million profit in 2024, driven by credit growth and innovation. Read more…
3tentos (TTEN3): Strong 2024 results positioned it for growth amid agricultural volatility. Read more…
MRVco (MRVE3): Faced mounting losses from U.S. struggles despite domestic efforts. Read more…
ISA Energia: Invested heavily while managing costs and legal setbacks. Read more…
Auren Energia (AURE3): Posted a R$32.6 million loss in 2024 amid merger and debt pressures. Read more…
Alpargatas (ALPA4): Turned a R$1.6 billion loss into profit with robust Havaianas sales. Read more…
Vibra Energia (VBBR3): Reported a R$510 million Q4 profit, supported by revenue growth despite tax hurdles. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s market trajectory will hinge on the CAGED and Foreign Exchange Flow releases, alongside global indicators like U.S. housing data, oil inventories, and German consumer climate.
Domestically, labor and currency flow insights will shape views on economic stability and Central Bank policy, with persistent inflationary pressures likely keeping the Ibovespa cautious. Globally, U.S. Treasury yield movements and commodity price shifts will drive risk sentiment, influencing Brazil’s export-driven markets and investor flows.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.02%
185,147.15
-0.02%
64,639.55
-0.35%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,034,599
-0.48%
2,565.50
+0.82%
59,789.81
-0.28%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,147.15 | -0.02% | +21.85% | 185,188.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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