Brazil’s Consumers Are Looking Up Again, But Their Wallets Still Hurt

Key Points

1. Consumer confidence rose for a fourth straight month in December, hitting its best level since December 2024.
2. The improvement came from expectations about the future, while views of today’s conditions weakened.
3. Lower-income households reported the biggest mood shift, even as record delinquency and heavy debt keep budgets tight.

Brazilian consumers ended 2025 in a slightly better mood, but the optimism is doing most of the work. New data from FGV IBRE show its Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.4 point in December to 90.2, the highest level in a year and the fourth consecutive monthly gain.

The lift came from what people think will happen next, not from what they feel right now. FGV’s Expectations Index climbed 1.4 points to 95.2, while the Current Situation Index fell 1.4 points to 83.4.

In other words, families are less pessimistic about the months ahead even as day-to-day conditions remain difficult. Inside the expectations gauge, the clearest improvement was in the outlook for the local economy.

That component jumped 3.6 points to 108.3, the best reading since September 2024. Other forward-looking measures barely moved: expectations for family finances edged up 0.1 point to 93.0, and intentions to buy durable goods rose 0.3 point to 84.9.

Meanwhile, the “current local economy” slipped 1.7 point to 94.1 and the “current family financial situation” fell 1.0 point to 73.1. Income splits underline how uneven the recovery feels.

Confidence rose most among lower-income consumers: the group earning up to R$2,100 ($389) jumped 4.2 points to 90.4. The lower-middle bracket (R$2,100.01–R$4,800, or $389–$889) dropped 5.2 points to 87.6.

Middle-income households (R$4,800.01–R$9,600, $889–$1,778) gained 1.5 points to 88.7, while the highest-income group (above R$9,600.01, above $1,778) slipped 0.6 point to 94.1.

FGV’s economists point to a labor market that remains supportive, but the strain is visible in the credit backdrop. With delinquency hitting record levels and household debt still widespread, confidence is rising on hope — and hope does not always translate into spending.