Brazilian life expectancy falls by 4.4 years due to pandemic

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Covid-19 pandemic has shortened life expectancy in Brazil by 4.4 years and brought forward the slowdown in labor force growth by a decade. The health crisis was a shock that is expected to accelerate the population decline but will not change the course of Brazil’s demographic trend, according to experts surveyed by Valor.

In 2019, a person born in Brazil was expected to live an average of 76.6 years. Today, they live about 72.2 years.

“The first impact of the pandemic is the increase in mortality and, consequently, a sharp decline in life expectancy,” says researcher Ana Amélia Camarano, coordinator of studies and research on gender, race, and generational equality of the Directorate of Social Studies and Policies (Disoc) of the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea).

From March 2020 to December 2021, Ana says, there was a loss of 4.4 years in life expectancy. “That’s a lot. The loss of 4.4 years in 22 months means a loss of life of 0.36 years or four months each month,” she argues. “Between 1980 and 2019, you gained four months per year in life expectancy. Between 2019 and 2021, you lost four months per month of life expectancy.”

With the pandemic, mortality has become an important variable in population aging, for which declining birth rates were more important in the past. In addition to more deaths, fewer people were born. Birth rates were already declining before the pandemic, as fertility declined in Brazil.

The pandemic also increased maternal mortality, which led to the death of babies and the postponement of pregnancies, the researcher adds.

“It was already predicted that the population would start shrinking in the mid-2030s, but the pandemic is expected to make that happen by the end of this decade. Both the total and the working-age populations (PIA) will decline,” Ana predicts.

According to the researcher’s projections, the Brazilian population will increase from 204.6 million in 2020 to 212.2 million in 2025, 209.7 million in 2030, and 204.2 million in 2035. The PIA is projected to increase from 136 million in 2020 to 142.7 million in 2025, 139.8 million in 2030, and 133.1 million in 2035.

PANDEMIC CUT LIFE EXPECTANCY BY MOST SINCE WORLD WAR TWO

According to a study published by Oxford University, the COVID-19 pandemic reduced life expectancy in 2020 by the most considerable amount since World War II, with the life expectancy of American men dropping by more than two years.

Life expectancy fell by more than six months compared with 2019 in 22 of the 29 countries analyzed, which spanned Europe, the United States, and Chile. There were reductions in life expectancy in 27 of the 29 countries overall.

The university said most life expectancy reductions across different countries could be linked to official COVID-19 deaths. There have been nearly 5 million reported deaths caused by the new coronavirus so far, a Reuters tally shows.

“The fact that our results highlight such a large impact directly attributable to COVID-19 shows how devastating a shock it has been for many countries,” said Dr. Ridhi Kashyap, co-lead author of the paper, published in the International Journal of Epidemiology.

There were more significant drops in life expectancy for men than women in most countries, with the largest decline in American men, who saw life expectancy drop by 2.2 years relative to 2019.

Overall, men had more than a year shaved off in 15 countries, compared to women in 11 countries. That wiped out the progress on mortality made in the previous 5.6 years.

In the United States, the rise in mortality was mainly among working age and those under 60. In Europe, deaths among people aged over 60 contributed more significantly to the increase in mortality.

Dr. Kashyap appealed to more countries, including low- and middle-income nations, to make mortality data available for further studies.