Brazil Stocks Near A Record As Vale Surges And Oil Drags

Key Points

• Ibovespa rose 1.11% to 163,663.88, closing near the record 171,816.67 as Vale jumped and banks stayed firm.
• The real strengthened with USD/BRL ending at R$5.38 ($1.00), while Brazil’s 2025 trade surplus reached $68.3 billion, above forecasts.
• Wall Street hit new highs, but Brent near $60 and Petrobras headlines kept energy as the local laggard.

Brazil’s stock market is pressing toward record territory. The Ibovespa closed Tuesday at 163,663.88, and early Wednesday futures around 165,950–166,083 kept focus on whether the index can beat the closing peak of 171,816.67.

Vale powered the move. Iron ore in China’s Dalian market settled at 801 yuan ($114.77) a ton after touching 806, lifting miners and pulling the index higher. Banks provided support, helped by a steady view that credit growth remains robust and delinquency is controlled.

Macro news helped. Brazil ended 2025 with a $68.3 billion trade surplus, above the government’s earlier $60.9 billion estimate.

Equities rise energy drags Brazil outlook

XP economist Luíza Pinese said strong imports offset export strength, and warned that lower oil prices add downside bias to 2026 projections even as official guidance points to roughly $70–$90 billion. Political chatter stayed muted, though our reporting has shown that investor positioning increasingly reflects bets on a 2026 political shift, a dynamic that has fueled record rallies in recent months.

Overseas, risk appetite stayed strong. The Dow closed at 49,462.08, the S&P 500 at 6,944.82, and the Nasdaq at 23,547.17, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the next generation of chips is in “full production.”

Energy was the counterweight. Brent hovered near $60 and Petrobras fell after a drilling-fluid leak led to a temporary pause in exploratory activity, as Venezuela risks lingered.

Top winners: Hapvida +8.70% to R$16.49 ($3.05); Assaí +5.62% to R$7.89 ($1.46); Braskem +5.13% to R$7.99 ($1.48); Usiminas +4.06%; B3 +3.94%.

Top losers: Vivara -3.19% to R$30.30 ($5.61); Petrobras ON -1.92% to R$31.15 ($5.77); Petrobras PN -1.85%; Direcional -1.81% to R$14.07 ($2.61); Cury -1.22% (tied with Raízen -1.22%).

Turnover was about R$24.8 billion ($4.6 billion). EWZ showed about $6.93 billion in assets and roughly 26.9 million shares traded. Momentum remains constructive on the daily chart (RSI ~64.8), while the four-hour RSI near 69.4 signals a hotter tape.

Related coverage: Brazil’s Morning Call | Brazil’s Record Chicken Exports Prove Resilience After A Bir This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Latin American markets and financial news.

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