Published Monday, 19 October, 8:55 a.m. ET · Source: Banco Central do Brasil, RT, InfoMoney
Key Facts
—The number. The US dollar traded at R$5.046 per dollar at 8:08 a.m. ET on Monday, down 0.54% on the day, and at R$5.0485 at 8:43 a.m. ET.
—What changed. The real strengthened after two new runoff polls, from BTG/Nexus and AtlasIntel, showed a tight race for president on 25 October, with Flávio Bolsonaro still ahead in both.
—Market expectation. Economists in the central bank’s weekly Focus survey trimmed their year-end dollar forecast to R$5.13 from R$5.15, and edged their 2026 growth forecast down to 1.83%.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 77.0% and a Lula win at 23.5%, with US$188 million traded on the election event (19 October 2026, 8:46 a.m. ET).
—Still unknown. Whether the real keeps its gain through the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 9:20 am ET (14:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Brazilian real gained against the US dollar on Monday morning, with the dollar quoted at R$5.046 at 8:08 a.m. ET, down 0.54%, according to InfoMoney. By 8:43 a.m. ET, RT data showed R$5.0485, which is 0.28% below Friday’s close of R$5.0627.
Investors were reading two new polls on the 25 October runoff between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party. The outcome matters for the Brazil economy, because the real is the market’s fastest gauge of investor nerves.
How the Real Moved This Month
The dollar was at R$4.9871 on Monday, 12 October, and climbed to R$5.0970 by Thursday, 15 October, according to RT data. It fell back to R$5.0627 on Friday, 16 October, so Monday’s move extends a pullback rather than starting a new trend.
The two sources measure Friday’s close differently, which is why the daily percentage change differs between them. For a reader in the United States, the level of about R$5.05 per dollar is the figure that matters, and both sources agree on it.
What the Polls Said
Reuters, InfoMoney and BlockTrends all tie the real’s gain to the two surveys released on Monday morning, one from the bank BTG with the firm Nexus and one from AtlasIntel. Both describe a close contest, with Flávio Bolsonaro still ahead in each, and we report the numbers in our BTG/Nexus poll story and our AtlasIntel poll story.
Polls carry a margin of error, so a gap inside it counts as a technical tie. Markets tend to react to the direction of a poll more than to its exact figure.
What Economists Expect
The central bank’s Focus survey, a weekly poll of economists and banks, was published on Monday with data to 16 October. It trimmed the median year-end dollar forecast to R$5.13 from R$5.15 and edged 2026 growth down to 1.83%, according to the Banco Central do Brasil.
Economists kept their 2026 inflation forecast at 5.22% and their year-end Selic rate forecast at 13.25%. The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, and a high rate makes the real more attractive to foreign investors.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, priced a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 77.0% and a Lula win at 23.5% at 8:46 a.m. ET on 19 October, with US$188 million traded across the election event. The two prices add up to slightly more than 100% because of the trading spread.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
A stronger real raises the dollar value of Brazilian assets, which helps US holders of Brazil funds such as the EWZ exchange-traded fund and of shares like Petrobras, Vale, Itaú and Nu Holdings. A weaker real would do the opposite, so the currency can move a US portfolio as much as the stock market does.
For travellers and expats who earn dollars, a stronger real makes Brazil slightly more expensive. At about R$5.05 per dollar, R$100 costs about US$19.80.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the real’s gain will hold, because polls can shift again before voters decide on Sunday, 25 October. It is also not known how the market will react to the official result.
Sources
Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey · InfoMoney, Dólar hoje, 19 October 2026 · RT, USD/BRL daily and intraday data · Polymarket, Brazil Presidential Election · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Brazilian real gain on Monday?
Reuters, InfoMoney and BlockTrends link the move to two new runoff polls showing a tight race. The dollar was quoted at R$5.046 at 8:08 a.m. ET, down 0.54%, according to InfoMoney.
What is the dollar to real rate today?
RT data showed R$5.0485 per US dollar at 8:43 a.m. ET on 19 October 2026. Friday’s close was R$5.0627.
What do economists expect for the dollar this year?
The Focus survey median for the year-end dollar is R$5.13, down from R$5.15. The same survey expects 2026 inflation of 5.22% and a Selic rate of 13.25%.
When is the Brazilian runoff election?
The runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula takes place on Sunday, 25 October 2026. Brazil’s electoral court, the TSE, publishes the official result.