By Erik Sales and Horácio Lessa Ramalho*
The US elections are scheduled for November 5, 2024, but those who think it’s too early to pay attention to this game are wrong.
Traditionally, the electoral process there begins well before the date mentioned above, much earlier than we are used to in Brazil.
By now, the fundraising committees and the candidates of both parties (Democrats and Republicans) are working quickly to raise funds to pay for the elections.
Unlike in Brazil, where there is free space on open TV for the candidates, in the United States, each candidate or committee must pay for TV time to attack opponents or promote themselves within certain agendas.
In less than a year from now, “Super Tuesday”, where more than twenty American states will hold their primary elections, will be decisive because it dictates the course of the campaigns on both sides.
In the next election, we can closely follow the influence of Brazilian immigrants in the US electoral results.
According to today’s scenario, there will be primaries in both the Democratic and Republican parties.
On the Democratic side, despite having recovered some popularity compared to the same period last year, Joe Biden faces popularity below the usual and needs to deal with sensitive problems such as inflation and unemployment.
The current president’s age is another point that weighs against him.
Biden is now 80 years old.
In addition, vice president Kamala Harris and Governor Phil Murphy also want to enter the Democratic race.
After “Super Tuesday,” we will know who will come strong at the end.
On the Republican side, meanwhile, two giants are fighting: Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.
Even with low popularity and facing lawsuits, former president Donald Trump wants to return to the presidency and has hinted at this in publications and by attending events.
At this point, we can only follow; after all, Trump is always a phenomenon and an unknown.
In the other corner is the young and highly-rated governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who, in recent polls, has appeared ahead of Trump in important segments of the electorate.
This tends to be a very tight election for the Presidency and the Legislative branch.
The Brazilian vote can make a difference in the US Senate, especially for the Democrats.
The Democratic Party commands the US Senate. However, the advantage is very small.
Next year, 34 seats in the Senate will be contested, 23 of which currently belong to the Democrats.
Defending these seats will be no easy task; losing them could mean a major headache for the Democratic presidential race.
That’s where the Brazilian immigrant vote can make a difference.
According to official data, there are now 1.4 million Brazilians living in the US, and the main US states where this population lives are Massachusetts (23%), Florida (20%), New Jersey (10.4%), California (8.7%) and New York (7.1%).
These states are also traditionally Democratic, except Florida, and all will elect new senators in 2024.
In addition, some Democratic senators are not openly discussing whether they will run for re-election for various reasons, including their advanced age.
In such an uncertain and important election, the number of Brazilian immigrants eligible to vote (it is worth remembering that they are families, many with American children, 1st generation immigrants) is considerable, especially in Florida and Massachusetts.
They can be decisive in the election of the US Senate.
Considering the historical preference of Brazilian immigrants for Democratic candidates and that voting in the US is not mandatory, such numbers go unnoticed by the committees of both parties.
With this, in the next election, we can closely monitor the influence of Brazilian immigrants on the US electoral results.
Watch.
*Erik Sales is a political scientist with a Master’s in Legislative Power from CEFOR of the House of Representatives. He currently lives in Canada and follows US politics;
Horácio Lessa Ramalho is a political scientist with an MBA from FGV in Government Relations, Emerging Leaders at the Kennedy School, Harvard, and Electoral Strategies in the 2016 US Election from George Washington University.
With information from Gazeta do Povo