Global Economy Briefing — August 29, 2026
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh put a September rate hike on the table at Jackson Hole; stocks slipped, yields and the dollar firmed, and the Ibovespa still rose.
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Warsh puts a September hike on the table. In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh stressed that 12-month PCE inflation “stands at 3.7 percent” — with 54% of the basket still rising faster than 3% — and futures ended the day implying about a 57% chance of a September rate hike, up from roughly 35% before the speech.
- Stocks slip, yields and the dollar firm. The S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq lost 0.52%, while the two-year Treasury yield touched its highest since July around 4.32% and the dollar index rose 0.50% to 99.65; gold slid about 3% to near $4,455 an ounce.
- Brazil bucks the mood. The Ibovespa rose 0.30% to 175,664.62 — an eighth straight gain and a 3.06% weekly rise — while the real slipped to 5.196 per dollar; the Selic has stood at 14.0% since the August 5 cut, with mid-August inflation at 4.24% over 12 months.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to put a September rate hike on the table — US stocks dipped, Treasury yields and the dollar firmed, gold slid about 3%, and Brazil’s Ibovespa still stretched its winning streak to eight sessions.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCE inflation (July, YoY) | 3.7% | 3.7% | Unchanged — still well above the 2% target |
| Unemployment rate (July) | 4.1% | 4.0% | Warsh: consistent with full employment |
| US 2-year Treasury yield (session) | ≈4.32% | ≈4.22% | Highest since July after the speech |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude (October futures) | $89.31 | $89.70 | Down more than 5% on the week |
| FTSE 100 (Friday close) | 10,824.26 | — | +0.29%; DAX +0.77%, CAC +0.98% |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Selic rate | 14.00% | 14.25% | Cut on August 5; next Copom September 15–16 |
| Brazil real (per USD) | 5.196 | ≈5.16 | Third straight daily gain for the dollar |
| Ibovespa | 175,665 | ≈175,100 | Eighth straight gain; about +24% year-on-year |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,712 | -0.25% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 175,665 | +0.30% |
| USD/BRL | 5.196 | +0.66% |
Source: RT close, 2026-08-28. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Saturday, August 29, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All day | US | Jackson Hole Symposium — final day | — | — |
A quiet Saturday: the Jackson Hole symposium wraps up in Wyoming. Japan’s July industrial production and retail sales land on Monday morning in Tokyo (08:50 JST), and Peru marks Santa Rosa de Lima on Sunday, August 30.
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Risk appetite meets a higher-for-longer breeze
US shares went into the weekend uneasy rather than panicked: the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76, the Nasdaq lost 0.52% and the Dow finished marginally lower at 53,559.99, capping a week that still left the S&P up about 0.5%. Europe ended firmer — the FTSE 100 added 0.29% and Germany’s DAX 0.77% — after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told Jackson Hole: “Our job is to return inflation to 2%, but I don’t know how long that will take.”
Gold slid about 3% to roughly $4,455 an ounce, a sharp pullback from Tuesday’s three-month high of $4,696, which followed the US Treasury’s announcement of a buyback program for long-dated bonds — even so, August’s gain of about 14% is the metal’s strongest month this century. Brent crude slipped 0.43% to $89.31 a barrel, ending the week down more than 5% and snapping a two-week winning streak, six months to the day since the US–Iran war began and with fresh US sanctions on Iran announced Friday.
Brazil bucked the global mood: the Ibovespa rose 0.30% to 175,664.62 — an eighth straight gain and a 3.06% weekly rise, its best week since April — leaving the index up about 24% from a year ago. The real softened, with the dollar up 0.66% at R$5.196, while the Selic has stood at 14.0% since the August 5 cut and mid-August inflation came in at 4.24% over 12 months.
02 Warsh’s hard line keeps September in play
In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh recommitted the central bank to what he called a “firm, fixed target” of 2% PCE inflation — a goal the US has now missed, in his words, through “65 months of sustained, elevated inflation.” Twelve-month PCE inflation “stands at 3.7 percent,” he said, and 54% of the basket is still rising faster than 3%.
Warsh argued that 4.1% unemployment leaves the labor market “consistent with full employment,” that “short-term interest rates are the predominant tool” of policy, and that forward guidance “has overstayed its welcome.” His closer — the Fed must see underlying inflation moving to target “clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do” — was read as a clear hint at the mid-September meeting.
Markets reacted fast: the two-year Treasury yield jumped about nine hundredths of a point to roughly 4.32% during the session, its highest since July, while the ten-year closed up four hundredths at 4.72%. Futures now imply about a 57% chance of a rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC — up from roughly 35% before the speech — and a 38.5% chance that the funds rate, now 3.50%–3.75%, reaches 4.00%–4.25% by year-end.
03 Debt, inflation and the emerging-market tightrope
For Latin America, the mix is double-edged: cheaper oil eases imported inflation, but higher US yields and a firmer dollar narrow the cushion that carry trades in Brazilian rates have enjoyed. Every extra hundredth of a point on US yields makes the real and its peers more sensitive to any further dollar strength.
Asia adds its own wrinkle: the yen hovered near 159 per dollar — a 40-year low — even after a record ¥15.4 trillion, roughly $96 billion, of intervention in under a month, this time with US support. Prediction markets put odds around 85% on a Bank of Japan hike at its September 17–18 meeting, and Monday morning in Tokyo brings July industrial production and retail sales.
The week ahead then turns back to the US: ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings and the Fed’s Beige Book lead into the September 4 jobs report, the last big data release before the Fed and Brazil’s Copom both meet on September 15–16. For carry trades built on a 14% Selic, that calendar is now the risk map.
What to watch today and this week
- Saturday: Jackson Hole wraps up — final-day panels rarely move markets, but any Fed pushback on September pricing will.
- Monday: Japan’s July industrial production and retail sales (08:50 JST) — a read on Asian demand after a month of record yen intervention.
- Friday, September 4: US jobs report — the last major data release before the Fed’s mid-September decision.
- Mid-September: the Fed and Brazil’s Copom decide on September 15–16; the Bank of Japan follows on September 17–18.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Warsh say at Jackson Hole?
He recommitted the Fed to its 2% inflation target, citing July PCE inflation of 3.7% and noting that 54% of the basket is still rising faster than 3% — enough to put a September rate hike back on the table.
Why did gold fall?
Gold fell about 3% to near $4,455 an ounce as higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar after Warsh’s speech reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.
How did Brazil react?
The Ibovespa rose 0.3% to 175,665 points — an eighth straight gain — while the real slipped to 5.196 per dollar; the Selic has stood at 14.0% since the August 5 cut.
What does a stronger dollar mean for Latin America?
It raises external financing costs and can pressure local currencies, offsetting the benefit of cheaper commodity imports.
Is a September Fed hike likely?
Futures markets imply roughly a 57% chance of a hike at the mid-September meeting, up from about 35% before the speech.
Sources
- Federal Reserve — Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech text (federalreserve.gov), August 28, 2026.
- Associated Press / Yahoo Finance — US closing market wrap, August 28, 2026.
- InfoMoney — Ibovespa, dollar-real, Brent and dollar index closing reports, August 28, 2026.
- Reuters — gold prices and Japan yen intervention reporting, August 2026.
- IBGE — IPCA-15 August 2026 release; Banco Central do Brasil — PTAX and Selic data.
- CME FedWatch — Fed funds futures pricing, August 28, 2026.
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