Angola grew 4% this year but slows to 1.8% in 2023

On October 23, the consulting firm Fitch Solutions upgraded Angola’s growth estimate from 3.5% to 4% this year but forecasted economic expansion to slow to 1.8% in 2023 due to difficulties in the oil sector.

“At Fitch Solutions, we forecast Angola’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 4% in 2022, up from an estimated 0.6% in 2021, evidencing an upward revision from our previous projection of 3.5%, made to reflect higher-than-expected second-quarter growth,” reads an analysis note on the Angolan economy.

For analysts at Fitch Solutions, owned by the same owners of the Fitch Ratings agency, the revision of growth expected this year is based on “a combination of lower inflation and better monetary conditions, in addition to gains in the oil sector, which will accelerate growth overall this year.

In the note sent to clients, to which Lusa had access, Fitch Solutions points out that the forecast for 2023 is for a slowdown, essentially due to “headwinds in the national oil sector.

Production is expected to fall by 3.5% due to chronic underinvestment and the fact that wells are running out, to which must be added the fall in prices, which will amplify the effect of the reduction in production.

Thus, they conclude, the non-oil sector will sustain growth, with inflation down to 14% and the National Bank of Angola cutting the benchmark interest rate to 17% by the end of the year.

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