Nasdaq Falls 1.3% as Oil Stays Above US$100 | Global Economy, Oct 9
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Oil stays above US$100 Brent crude held above US$100 a barrel as the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks elevated. Higher fuel costs threaten to keep global inflation elevated.
- US jobs cool while the Fed has begun to tighten US employers added 29,000 jobs in September versus 90,000 expected, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. The Federal Reserve raised its rate to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September, its first increase since 2023.
- The dollar’s strength tightens Latin America A stronger dollar and elevated US yields raise funding pressure for emerging markets. Brazil’s real faces renewed sensitivity to the Fed path, oil-driven inflation and the room available for the Banco Central do Brasil to ease Selic.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.6 est | 48.1 | Weakening expected |
| Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations | 4.7% est | 4.6% | Higher expected |
| Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | — | 456 | Due 17:00 |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany DAX | 24,807 | 25,104 | Second daily fall |
| Euro vs US dollar | 1.1213 | 1.1200 | Little changed |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Machine Tool Orders | 61.0% est | 64.7% | Cooling |
| Brazil IPCA Inflation Rate | 4.50% est | 4.22% | Pressure building |
| Brazil IPCA Monthly | 0.73% est | -0.32% | Sharp rebound expected |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,765 | -0.47% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 206,220 | +0.94% |
| USD/BRL | 5.0241 | +0.15% |
Source: market close, 8 October 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Friday, October 9, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:35 | JP | 3-Month Bill Auction | — | 1.279 |
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders | 61 | 64.7 |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate | 4.5 | 4.22 |
| 12:00 | BR | Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA | — | -0.24 |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate | 0.73 | -0.32 |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.5 | 50.9 |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 45.9 | 46.3 |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 47.6 | 48.1 |
| 16:00 | US | WASDE Report | — | — |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | — | 456 |
| 19:30 | US | CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions | — | -231 |
| 19:30 | US | CFTC Corn speculative net positions | — | 509.5 |
| 19:30 | US | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | — | 109.5 |
| 19:30 | US | CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | — | 218.6 |
| 19:30 | US | CFTC Wheat speculative net positions | — | -16.5 |
| 19:30 | US | CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions | — | 256.9 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 A tech wobble beneath the surface
Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite sliding 1.25% to 27,193, as investors rotated away from stretched technology names. The S&P 500 slipped 0.47% to 7,765, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average defied the mood with a 0.10% gain to 51,232.
Gold climbed 0.88% to $4,145 an ounce, a sign that safety remains in demand even as the US 10-year Treasury yield consolidated at 5.235%. The VIX edged up 2.19% to 15.41, reflecting nervousness rather than panic.
For Latin American assets, the story is one of funding costs and risk appetite. A firmer dollar and elevated US yields make dollar-denominated debt heavier, while oil’s renewed surge adds an inflation impulse that central banks from Brasília to Santiago cannot ignore.
02 The Fed’s patience is not a pivot
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September, its first increase since 2023. September payrolls then came in at just 29,000, well below the 90,000 expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
With oil above US$100 a barrel and Michigan inflation expectations forecast to rise again today, the next Fed meeting will weigh softer hiring against firmer prices.
On Thursday, US initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 (consensus 200,000, previous 199,000), the four-week average at 198,000 and continuing claims at 1,716,000 (consensus 1,710,000, previous 1,699,000). Mexico’s September inflation was 3.45% (forecast 3.47%, previous 3.26%), with core inflation at 3.75% (forecast 3.79%, previous 3.88%).
The dollar index eased 0.20% to 102.03 on Thursday, but the broader trend still favours the greenback. For Brazil, that keeps the real on the defensive and narrows the window for aggressive Selic cuts.
03 Oil turns into a tax on easing
Brent crude’s move above US$100 a barrel is no longer just a supply story. It is an inflation story. The unresolved US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz keeps a risk premium in every barrel.
For emerging markets, that means imported fuel inflation arrives at the moment when central banks want to ease.
Brazil’s IPCA inflation, due at 09:00 BRT (12:00 UTC), is expected to accelerate to 4.50% year-on-year from 4.22%. The mid-month IPCA-15 gauge already showed 4.47% annual inflation for September. A hot print would reinforce the case for caution at the Banco Central do Brasil, especially with oil and the dollar pushing against any dovish impulse.
What to watch today and this week
- Friday: Brazil’s September IPCA at 12:00 UTC (consensus 4.5% annual and 0.73% monthly, previous 4.22% and -0.32%), then University of Michigan consumer sentiment and US inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC.
- Friday evening: Baker Hughes oil rig count at 17:00 UTC and US speculative positioning data at 19:30 UTC.
- Ongoing: US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz, US Treasury yields and the impact of dollar strength on Brazil’s real and Selic outlook.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket traders put the chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates at its October meeting at 84.5%, with 15.5% on a quarter-point increase (US$30.6 million traded). Prices as of 11:05 pm ET on 8 October 2026. These are real-money bets, not polls; Kalshi, the other platform we track, is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are US shares slipping?
Thursday’s slide was led by technology: the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.25% to 27,193 and the S&P 500 fell 0.47% to 7,765, while the Dow Jones rose 0.10%.
What did the US jobs report show?
US employers added 29,000 jobs in September versus 90,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Why does the 10-year yield matter?
At 5.235% it raises borrowing costs across the economy, making high-growth equities and gold less attractive while supporting the dollar.
How does this affect Brazil?
A stronger dollar and higher US yields can pressure the real and constrain Selic easing, while Brazil’s September IPCA at 09:00 BRT tests the central bank’s room to cut.
What should investors watch today?
Brazil’s IPCA at 09:00 BRT, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 14:00 UTC and its inflation expectations, and the Baker Hughes oil rig count at 17:00 UTC.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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