10 keys to understanding the electoral ‘surprise’ in Peru

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The radical leftist Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori (right) will dispute the second round of the presidential elections in June. In Peru, recriminations, and regrets for having elected two figures that have once again polarized the country have already begun.

1. Radical leftist
Pedro Castillo, the teaching leader of the Peruvian left, is not exactly an outsider. In 2017 he led a teachers’ strike that lasted for weeks and put the then government of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) on the ropes. Since then, he toured the country doing a “silent” campaign, the old-fashioned way, with rallies and door-to-door. Although he did not even appear in the polls in January, Ipsos gave him 3% of voting intentions at the beginning of March. Since then, he did nothing but grow in the polls until he reached the 18% that gave him the triumph on Sunday, and that will have him in the second round in June.

2. Keiko is on the attack
Of the 18 presidential candidates running in the first round in Peru, Keiko Fujimori had the highest percentage of rejection, with more than 50%. However, she managed to get through to the second round, with 14% of the vote (according to the Ipsos quick count), in a somewhat unexpected development, since in recent weeks she had not been in the leading positions in the polls. Despite the accusations of corruption against her, Alberto Fujimori’s daughter captured the country’s rural and “silent” vote.

3. Polarization
The second round on June 6 will be between two candidates with radically different positions, with two opposing models of the country. While Castillo represents the radical left, Keiko has a political vision absolutely linked to the right. Thus, Peru has once again become polarized.

4. Fujimorism vs. anti-Fujimorism
In the last elections in Peru, citizens have faced the dichotomy of Fujimorism versus anti-Fujimorism. It happened in 2011 and 2016 when Ollanta Humala and PPK defeated Keiko at the polls. It remains to be seen whether this “dilemma” will polarize the electorate again or whether the central issue will be to choose between someone from the left or the right.

5. Map in red
The Peruvian left has not enjoyed a high level of support in the recent history of the country. Although Humala dyed the entire south and highlands red in 2006 and 2011, his government ended up being center-right. The same happened with Alan García in 2006, who campaigned with social democratic proposals, but his administration quickly turned to the center.

6. Transfer of votes
Pedro Castillo dyed the map red in the south and the highlands, but Keiko’s advantage for the second round is that she can find support in the north and Lima, more densely populated areas. Fujimori could also add the support of Rafael López Aliaga (12%) and Hernando de Soto (10%) voters. In turn, Castillo could court the left-wing voters of Verónika Mendoza (8%) and Yonhy Lescano’s center-left (9.8%).

7. “Grand corruption”
Peru Libre’s leader proposes to elaborate a new Constitution to replace that of 1993 and expel illegal foreigners in three days. He promises to deactivate the Constitutional Tribunal because it defends “the great corruption”, to nationalize the main mining, oil, and energy deposits, and free Ollanta Humala’s brother, Antauro Humala.

8. Family interests
Keiko, for her part, proposes a macro plan for job creation and a reform of the pension system that guarantees the right to private savings. She has also said that she intends to pardon her father in case she is elected. In this sense, the ghost of Alberto Fujimori will reappear in the second round.

9. Anti-politics
Many in Peru, and part of the region, have been surprised with the result of Sunday’s elections. However, for years this country has opted for the vote that embodies the anti-system (Alan 2006 and Humala 2011) or for those who wave the anti-politics flag. The rejection of institutions and the political class is so high that citizens tend to support precisely those who oppose the establishment. However, once elected, these leaders usually end up being “part of the same problem”.

10. Recriminations
In Peru, recriminations and regrets have already begun. From the center-left, they claim that Lescano was the most sensible politician. At the same time, from the right, they blame those who voted for Keiko and López Aliaga instead of a more traditional and clear right-winger such as Hernando De Soto.

Source: La Tercera