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What started as a 30% “security tariff” in January has escalated into the most severe trade rupture between two Andean neighbors in modern history—and is now threatening to dismantle the regional trade bloc that was supposed to prevent exactly this.

Ecuador’s Ministry of Production announced Thursday that tariffs on Colombian imports would rise from 50% to 100% effective May, the third escalation in a trade war that has demolished $2.8 billion in annual bilateral commerce in under three months, as reported by CNN en Español, ABC Color, and La República Ecuador. The move came hours after Ecuador recalled its ambassador from Bogotá—the sharpest diplomatic downgrade since the crisis began.

From 30% to 100% in Three Months

The escalation ladder has been relentless. President Daniel Noboa imposed a 30% “security tariff” on February 1, accusing Colombia of failing to combat narcotrafficking along their 600-kilometer border. When a Quito summit in February failed, Ecuador hiked to 50% in March. Colombia responded at each stage with reciprocal tariffs, cut electricity exports, and filed complaints before the Andean Community tribunal. Ecuador retaliated by raising pipeline transit fees for Colombian crude by 900%.

Thursday’s jump to 100% was triggered by what Quito described as Colombia’s continued “lack of implementation of concrete and effective measures in border security.” But the immediate catalyst was diplomatic: on Monday, President Petro called imprisoned former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas—a Colombian-Ecuadorian dual national jailed for corruption—a “political prisoner” on X. Ecuador viewed the comment as interference in its judiciary and recalled its ambassador the same day.

Petro Declares the CAN Dead

Petro’s response was incendiary. He called the 100% tariff a “monstruosity” and declared that Colombia had no further purpose in the Comunidad Andina de Naciones (CAN), the four-country trade bloc that also includes Peru and Bolivia. “Nothing is accomplished by staying there,” he wrote on X, and announced that Colombia’s foreign ministry was “already requesting entry into Mercosur”—the South American common market led by Brazil and Argentina. Colombia’s Energy Minister Edwin Palma called the tariff hike “a clear aggression against brotherly peoples” during what he described as a “complex energy moment.”

If Colombia follows through on CAN withdrawal and Mercosur accession, it would represent the most significant realignment of South American trade architecture in decades. The CAN—which has governed Andean trade rules since 1969—would be reduced to Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia, losing its second-largest economy. Mercosur, meanwhile, would gain a 52-million-person market with one of Latin America’s most diversified non-commodity export bases. Whether the threat is negotiating leverage or genuine policy remains unclear; Petro has 164 days left in office before Colombia’s May 31 congressional and October presidential elections reshape the government.

Who Pays the Price

The Comité Empresarial Ecuatoriano warned of “grave consequences” from the escalation, noting that approximately 580 Ecuadorian companies depend on the Colombian market. Ecuador’s own exporters face losses estimated at $273 million annually, while Colombia’s refusal to sell electricity leaves Ecuador vulnerable to the blackouts that plagued the country in 2024, when power cuts reached 14 hours daily during drought season. At the Rumichaca border bridge—where truckers from both countries protested together in February—legal commerce has effectively stopped. The irony, as analysts have repeatedly noted throughout this crisis, is that the smuggling networks both governments claim to be fighting are the primary beneficiaries of every formal trade channel that closes.

Related Coverage: Ecuador and Colombia’s Trade War Keeps Getting Worse • Quito Summit Fails to Break Tariff Deadlock • Ecuador Hits Colombia With 30% Security Tariff