Brazil Is Falling Behind on Critical Minerals, the ‘New Oil’, Warns Vale’s CEO

BRAZIL · MINING

The boss of Brazil’s biggest miner says the world is begging for what Brazil has in the ground. The problem, Gustavo Pimenta told a business forum on Friday, is that the country cannot get it out fast enough.

“Our problem is supply”

Gustavo Pimenta runs Vale, the Brazilian giant that is one of the world’s largest mining companies. He spoke on Friday at a mining forum hosted by LIDE, a business-leaders group, in São Paulo.

His message was upbeat about demand and blunt about Brazil. “I don’t have a demand problem, demand is infinite,” he said. “Our problem is supply, the difficulty of meeting it and bringing these minerals to market.”

Critical minerals are the metals behind the energy transition and artificial intelligence. The list includes lithium, nickel, copper, graphite, cobalt and rare earths, a group of elements used in magnets and electronics.

Pimenta called them the possible “new oil of the next generations”. Global demand for these minerals should multiply five to six times over the next twenty years, he said.

How Brazil fell behind

The paradox is that Brazil holds one of the largest and most diverse mineral reserves on the planet. Yet its share of the global market keeps shrinking.

Iron ore tells the story. In 2010, Brazil and Australia each produced around 380 to 400 million tonnes a year.

Fifteen years later, Australia produces one billion tonnes. Brazil remains stuck near 400 million.

The same pattern shows up in copper, where Congo accelerated past Brazil, and in nickel. Mining now represents just 4 percent of Brazil’s gross domestic product, or GDP, the measure of everything an economy produces.

In Australia that share is 14 percent, and in Chile it is 12 percent. Brazil also knows its own ground poorly, with only 28 percent of its mineral territory mapped in detail.

Fifteen years to open a mine

Pimenta laid out four fixes, drawn from a study Vale commissioned from the consultancy Accenture with the Brazilian Mining Institute, known as Ibram.

The first is faster environmental licensing without weaker standards. A mineral project in Brazil today takes about fifteen years from exploration to operation.

“For legal miners, what we want is rigor,” he said. “But there is an opportunity to do it more swiftly.”

The second is processing more of the ore at home, including so-called green steel. That requires competitive natural gas, which costs US$13 to 14 per million British thermal units in Brazil, against about US$3 in the Middle East.

Forty-year bets need stable rules

The third fix is a stable business and tax environment. Mining investments are forty-year commitments, Pimenta said, and capital flees countries that change the rules mid-game.

The fourth is reputation. He cited the Carajás National Forest in Pará, where Vale mines 2 percent of the territory while helping preserve 800,000 hectares of native forest.

He also praised Deputy Arnaldo Jardim’s work on a national policy for critical minerals. Congress is currently debating a legal framework for the sector.

The missing engineers

The most concrete bottleneck Pimenta admitted is human. Vale does not have enough engineers to run its expansion, he said.

The company is planning megaprojects worth US$15 to 20 billion, part of an investment program reported at R$140 billion (US$27.1 billion). For some projects, Vale already has to hire support from foreign companies.

That, in his assessment, should be supplied by Brazil itself. Vale is turning to partnerships with technical schools to rebuild the pipeline.

What unlocking the sector would be worth

Pimenta put numbers on the prize. Mining taxes and royalties brought Brazil R$74 billion (US$14.3 billion) over the past ten years.

If the bottlenecks fall, that could reach R$130 billion (US$25.2 billion) over the next decade. The wider chain supports three million jobs today and could add two million more.

The warning underneath the optimism is one Brazilians know by heart. A country can export raw ore and still import the expensive technology made from it.

Whether the Senate’s critical-minerals bill and faster licensing change that pattern is the question for the next government. Whoever wins on 4 October inherits the answer.

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Sources: LIDE Mining Forum, Casa LIDE, São Paulo (28 August 2026); Terra; SpaceMoney; GP1; Infoalfa. Exchange rate: R$5.16 = US$1 (29 August 2026).

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