Critical Minerals Could Add US$37.8 Billion to Brazil’s GDP

Economy: São Paulo

A new Amcham study estimates that critical minerals could add up to R$192.1 billion (about US$37.8 billion) to Brazil’s GDP by 2050 if the country processes more of the ore at home.

What the Amcham Study Found

The study, released on August 4, 2026, models how far the expansion of critical and strategic minerals could lift Brazil’s economy by 2050. Its central finding: the sector could add as much as R$192.1 billion (about US$37.8 billion) to GDP.

Alongside the output gain, the most ambitious scenario projects roughly 750,000 new jobs, plus higher household consumption and investment. Amcham, the American Chamber of Commerce, described the analysis as unprecedented in scope.

Critical minerals are the metals and elements deemed essential to modern technology and the energy transition, from batteries to wind turbines and defense systems. Unlike bulk commodities such as iron ore, these materials often face concentrated supply chains and carry a higher risk of shortage, which makes new sources strategically valuable.

For Brazil, a country long defined by raw commodity exports, the study frames this moment as a rare opening to capture more of the value chain inside its own borders. The numbers are large enough to reshape a national conversation about industrial policy.

Two Roads for the Sector

The study compares two development paths. In the first, investment is financed mostly by domestic capital and output is aimed at exports with little processing in Brazil, yielding an accumulated R$128.7 billion (about US$25.3 billion) in GDP and 304,000 jobs.

In the second, greater foreign investment expands mineral processing inside Brazil and feeds domestic industry. That path lifts investment by R$120.9 billion (about US$23.8 billion) and produces the headline R$192.1 billion (about US$37.8 billion) impact.

The gap between the two illustrates the cost of exporting raw ore rather than refining and manufacturing at home. In plain terms, the lower scenario keeps Brazil in a familiar role as a supplier of unprocessed materials, while the higher one imagines the country building factories, laboratories and skilled workforces around those same minerals.

The Value of Adding Value

Moving from the export-led path to the processing-led one would add R$63.4 billion (about US$12.5 billion) to GDP, according to the study. It would also lift family consumption by R$32.3 billion (about US$6.4 billion) and investment by R$16.1 billion (about US$3.2 billion).

The difference translates into an extra 446,000 jobs in the higher scenario, concentrating more of the economic benefit within Brazil rather than abroad.

The message for policymakers is that attracting international capital and building processing capacity, not just digging and shipping ore, is where the larger prize lies. This is a familiar tension in resource-rich economies: the raw material leaves, but the higher-margin industrial work and technological know-how stay elsewhere.

Which Minerals, and Why Now

The analysis covers cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements, inputs central to electric vehicles, batteries, electronics and clean-energy hardware.

Global demand for these materials is rising as economies electrify, and supply chains have become a geopolitical priority for the United States, Europe and China alike. Brazil holds significant reserves of several of them.

For a country already a mining heavyweight in iron ore, the study frames critical minerals as a chance to move up the value chain rather than repeat a commodity-export model. Rare earth elements, for instance, are a group of 17 chemically similar metals used in everything from smartphone screens to missile guidance systems, and their processing is currently dominated by a handful of countries.

What Would Need to Change

Realizing the higher scenario would require sustained foreign investment, clearer regulation and infrastructure to support processing plants, according to the study’s logic. None of that is guaranteed.

Brazil competes for the same capital as other resource-rich nations, and building refining capacity is expensive and slow. The projections are potential outcomes over a 25-year horizon, not forecasts.

Still, the study gives investors and officials a concrete number to debate as Brazil weighs how to position itself in a market central to the global energy transition. The conversation now turns on whether the country can translate geological endowment into industrial policy that actually delivers processing plants, skilled jobs and export revenues before the global window narrows.

What to watch next is whether Brasília pairs the study with concrete tax or regulatory incentives for processing investment, and how mining states respond with their own infrastructure plans. Another open question is which specific mineral draws the first large-scale foreign-backed processing facility, and whether that project can serve as a proof of concept that unlocks wider investor confidence.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much could critical minerals add to Brazil’s GDP?

An Amcham study estimates critical and strategic minerals could add up to R$192.1 billion (about US$37.8 billion) to Brazil’s GDP by 2050 in its most ambitious scenario, alongside about 750,000 new jobs.

What is the difference between the study’s two scenarios?

A path based on domestic capital and raw exports yields R$128.7 billion (about US$25.3 billion) and 304,000 jobs, while a path with more foreign investment and domestic processing reaches R$192.1 billion (about US$37.8 billion) and 750,000 jobs.

Which minerals does the study cover?

The study examines cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements, materials central to batteries, electric vehicles, electronics and clean-energy technology.

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