Two Supertankers, 3.8 Million Barrels, One Big Question: Can Venezuela Still Export?

Key Points

• Venezuela cleared two VLCC supertankers to leave José for China carrying about 1.9 million barrels each of Merey heavy crude.
• The sailings follow a U.S. tanker seizure last week and a warning that ships already on U.S. sanctions lists will not be allowed to depart Venezuelan waters.
• Discounts are widening and shipping is growing stealthier, a mix that can push up freight, insurance, and fuel costs abroad.

Venezuela has authorized two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to depart its export hub at José bound for China, loaded with roughly 1.9 million barrels each of Merey, the country’s benchmark heavy grade. The move is a test of how sanctions bite in practice.

The trigger was Washington’s seizure last week of a ship carrying Venezuelan crude, followed by U.S. statements that sanctioned vessels will not be permitted to leave Venezuelan waters.

The two VLCCs cleared to sail are reported not to be on the current U.S. sanctions list, giving Caracas a narrow route: export through ships that are not formally designated, even as scrutiny intensifies.

How the cargo moves matters. One source familiar with operations said the tankers planned to travel with their AIS tracking transponders switched off after leaving José. “Going dark,” and spoofing location data, is widely used to obscure sanction-sensitive oil flows.

Shadow Fleet Risks Deepen Venezuela Oil Discounts

Shadow-fleet ships often operate without the usual Western insurance and service providers, raising the odds of delays, disputes, or punitive action. Markets are already pricing the added risk.

Traders say Merey discounts into China widened to around $21 per barrel below Brent after the seizure, compared with roughly $14–$15 the prior week. Buyers have also demanded better terms, including reduced prepayment requirements and compensation for demurrage when vessels are forced to wait.

A recent cyberattack that briefly disrupted PDVSA terminal deliveries before loadings resumed underscores how fragile the chain has become. Venezuela can still sell oil, but increasingly by paying in opacity and price — and that matters globally because disruptions in heavy-crude trade ripple into refinery margins and fuel prices.