This week’s economic highlights in Latin America: inflation and economic data
This week brings important economic indicators and data releases across Latin America, focusing on inflation rates in Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina.
In addition, economic developments in Mexico and Peru are expected to provide insights into the region’s economic performance.
Brazil: On Tuesday, July 11, Brazil will release its June inflation data.
Analysts projects a slight decrease of -0.1% month-on-month and an annual inflation rate of 3.14%.
Retail sales data for May will be released on Friday, July 14, with an estimated monthly decline of -0.7% but a year-on-year growth of 3.5%.
Argentina: On Thursday, July 13, Argentina will release its June inflation figures.
Analysts estimate a monthly inflation rate of around 7.5% and an annual inflation rate of 118.7%.
Economists expect the central bank to maintain the policy rate at 97% during its weekly meeting.
Mexico: Wednesday, July 12, will see the release of Mexico’s industrial production index for May.
Analysts forecast a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, indicating continued growth driven by domestic demand and rising exports.
However, tight monetary conditions and nationalistic policies pose challenges, with a potential U.S. recession as a major risk.
Colombia: On Monday, July 10, Colombia will release its June inflation rate, projected to be 12.29% year-on-year.
Although still above the target range, it aligns with the central bank’s forecast.
On Friday, July 14, retail sales data for May are expected to show a 4.2% year-on-year decline, indicating a loss of momentum in household consumption.
Industrial production data for May, also released on Friday, is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by a decrease in manufacturing activity.
Peru: A monetary policy meeting is scheduled for Thursday, July 13. Economists anticipate the benchmark interest rate to remain at 7.75%.
Forward guidance is likely to emphasize that future decisions will depend on new information, while highlighting the flexibility of policy measures.
Persistent underlying inflation, high inflation expectations, and policy uncertainty are seen as potential risks, supporting a cautious approach with limited scope for rate cuts.
These economic indicators and data releases will provide valuable insights into the economic performance and inflationary trends across key Latin American countries, shaping the region’s economic outlook.
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