The Weakest Win Rate Since 1988: What a Stronger Congress Means for Lula
Brazil’s president has just learned a hard lesson about governing in 2025: Congress has the upper hand. Lawmakers let Provisional Measure 1,303 expire, scrapping a plan the government said could raise about R$20.6 billion ($3.89 billion) in 2026 by tightening taxes on financial investments.
Days earlier, the same Chamber of Deputies advanced a popular bill expanding income-tax relief for earners up to R$5,000 ($943) per month. The message is clear: proposals that put money in voters’ pockets move; those that broaden the tax base struggle.
Behind the immediate headlines is a larger shift in power. Since taking office in 2023, the Lula administration has turned 62 of the 239 proposals it sent to Congress into law—a 25% success rate, the weakest since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1988.
Earlier governments converted between 46% and 77%. The reasons are structural and political. First, Congress itself now controls significant budget resources through “impositive” amendments—funds the Executive must execute for lawmakers’ districts.
The 2025 budget earmarked about R$50.4 billion ($9.51 billion) for these amendments; the 2026 draft sets aside roughly R$40.8 billion ($7.70 billion). That reduces the presidency’s traditional bargaining chip.
Second, stricter rules introduced in 2019 shortened the runway for provisional measures, limiting the Executive’s habit of governing by decree while it whipped votes.
Layer on today’s fragmented, polarized party system, and every major bill becomes a bespoke negotiation. The political stakes are immediate.
The government is trying to balance fiscal promises with social priorities: funding tax relief, protecting programs, and signaling stability to investors. Losing revenue measures while passing relief measures widens the gap that future bills must close.
For Lula, who is expected to seek another term in 2026, the governing test now is practical, not rhetorical—turn more proposals into law, and make the gains visible in household finances and basic services.
The story, in plain terms: Brazil’s Congress is stronger, the presidency’s leverage is thinner, and the path to 2026 runs through painstaking, bill-by-bill coalition-building.
Voters—and markets—will judge whether that effort translates into steadier prices, more jobs, and better public services before they head to the polls.
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This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief