The region is aging fast; is LatAm ready for this demographic challenge?

By Sebastián Osorio Idárraga

The population is aging.

It is a recurrent and common phrase to hear, especially in work environments, which reflects that there is a lack of people in the workforce to meet the demands in different economic sectors, as is happening in the United States, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

And Latin America and the Caribbean is no stranger to this phrase and this aging phenomenon.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects that the region will reach its maximum number of inhabitants in 2056, with a total of 751.9 million people, mainly due to the fertility decline resulting in decreasing population growth.

Worldwide, life expectancy at birth is 71 years. In the region, this number is higher than the average.

Thus, the age pyramid in the region has been changing since 1960 and will continue to do so, according to a recent publication by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), which showed that the young population has had a relative decrease from more than 40% in 1960 to less than 24% today.

The historical review indicates that the region had almost 170 million inhabitants by the middle of the 20th century but grew at an average annual rate of 2.6%.

“This rate increased throughout the 1950s, reaching 2.7% in 1963, bringing the population within a few years to nearly 240 million.”

“In the following years, even with the rate gradually decreasing, the inhabitants of Latin America and the Caribbean grew to 521 million in 2000 and, in 2020, there were 650 million people,” highlights the series of documents published a week ago, related to aging in the region.

THE AGING THAT LATAM WILL GO THROUGH IN THE FUTURE

Population aging is the process of a sustained increase in the proportion of older people in the total population.

“The path already traced up to 2020 will continue its course and, with greater or lesser speed depending on the evolution of fertility and mortality, will lead the population aged 60 years and over to represent almost 30% of the total population in 2060 and to approach 40% in the very long term scenarios (around 2100),” says PAHO.

In addition, one of the key conclusions of this series of documents is that “population aging in Latin America and the Caribbean is the most important demographic event of this century, just as the increase in life expectancy and the decline in fertility were in the last century”.

The region is aging rapidly. It is estimated that by 2030, there will be more people over 60 than under 15.

And while life expectancy at birth for both sexes increased by three years between 2000 and 2019, men and women in the region live on average 9.7 and 12.3 years in poor health, respectively.

HOW DOES AGING BEHAVE IN LATAM COUNTRIES?

By 2010, many Caribbean countries reached an intense population aging, with population percentages of older people above those observed in developed countries, such as the United States of America and Canada.

PAHO makes the following clarifications regarding this behavior:

• By 2020, some Caribbean countries had more than 20% elderly population, and this will exceed 30% in the next decade (e.g., Martinique, Puerto Rico, and Cuba).
• The Caribbean has countries with low levels of population aging, such as Haiti or the Dominican Republic, where even in 2030, the elderly population will not reach 10% and 15%, respectively.
• In South America, Uruguay shows advanced aging since, in 2020, its elderly population will exceed 20%.
• However, in 2030, Chile will surpass it as the most aged country in the sub-region.
• Other South American countries that will also follow the observed trends of sharp increases in the number and percentage of older people are Brazil, Colombia, and Peru.
• In Central America, the most advanced population aging country is Costa Rica, which will jump from 15% to more than 20% of older people in this decade.
• On the other hand, Guatemala, Honduras, Belize, and Nicaragua are the furthest behind in this process.
• As for Argentina, the country had an early demographic transition process in the region, which is why it does not present an accelerated aging process in the current decade since it has an initial trajectory of demographic transition more similar to that of developed countries.

“We cannot discuss or imagine inclusive and sustainable development if we do not put people at the center of strategies. This includes today’s older people and the next generations,” said PAHO Director Jarbas Barbosa.

“That people are living longer has been great progress, but the challenge now is to ensure that the vast majority of these years are lived in better health, and, for this, it is necessary to work throughout the life course.”

“It is also key to provide favorable environments for the elderly and integrated, person-centered health care, emphasizing primary care,” says PAHO.

With information from Bloomberg

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