EU’s 2030 Rearmament Plan Excludes US, UK and Turkish Suppliers

(Analysis) The European Union has set an ambitious deadline of 2030 to complete its rearmament program and establish a credible defense posture in response to growing security challenges.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently unveiled this timeline as part of a massive investment plan that aims to mobilize €800 billion over four years, with €150 billion coming from common financial instruments and €650 billion expected to be contributed by Member States.

“We are prepared to take the reins of change that is inevitable, because we cannot afford to let history push us around,” declared von der Leyen during a speech in Copenhagen. “This means that acting now is an obligation. Acting at scale is a sine qua non condition to achieve speed, scale, and strength by 2030.”

Arms companies from the United States, United Kingdom, and Turkey will be excluded from a new €150 billion European Union defense funding package unless their home countries sign defense and security pacts with Brussels. Officials revealed this condition on Wednesday, March 19, as reported by the Financial Times.

The European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS)

The 2030 deadline is a central component of the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS), first unveiled by the European Commission in March 2024. This strategy represents the EU’s first comprehensive attempt to address long-term defense industrial readiness following the initial emergency responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The EDIS aims to increase European defense industrial readiness through collaborative EU-based investment, research, development, production, procurement, and ownership. In essence, the European Commission wants member states to buy weapons together and to buy them in Europe.

Key Targets for 2030:

• Increasing intra-EU defense trade to 35% of the EU defense market
• Ensuring at least 50% of EU countries’ defense procurement comes from the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB)
• Member States should procure at least 40% of their defense equipment in a collaborative manner
• Building a European defense industrial base that constitutes a “strategic advantage”

EU’s 2030 Rearmament Plan Excludes US, UK and Turkish Suppliers

The urgency behind this initiative stems from stark realities in Europe’s current defense landscape. More than three-quarters of defense acquisitions by EU member states between Russia’s invasion and June 2023 were made from outside the EU, with the United States alone representing 63% of these purchases.

This dependence on external suppliers poses risks to local skills, knowledge, and technology development. The European defense technological and industrial base currently has a turnover of about €70 billion and exports more than €28 billion worth of equipment annually.

It employs approximately 500,000 people. However, the sector suffers from fragmentation along national lines due to decades of public underinvestment.

Von der Leyen has emphasized the geopolitical stakes: “We must see the world as it is, and we must act immediately to face it, because in the second half of this decade and beyond, a new international order will be formed. Europe is more united than ever, it is more determined than ever.”

The Four-Point Roadmap

To achieve its 2030 objectives, the European Commission has outlined a four-point roadmap:

1. Increased Defense Spending: Implementation of the €800 billion investment plan to build necessary capabilities

2. Pan-European Cooperation: Development of collaborative defense projects to fill capability gaps in areas such as integrated European air and missile defense, space domain awareness, cyber defense, and maritime protection

3. A “Hedgehog Strategy” for Ukraine: Supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russian aggression, with Ukraine featuring prominently in almost all proposed measures of the strategy

4. Consolidated EU Defense Market: Creation of a European military sales mechanism inspired by the U.S. foreign military sales model, combined with efforts to map key suppliers and supply chains of defense production in the EU

Implementation Mechanisms

To support this strategy, the European Commission has proposed the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) with an initial budget of €1.5 billion through 2027.

This program aims to increase the competitiveness and readiness of the EU defense industry. It also fosters cooperation with Ukraine to improve its defense industrial capabilities.

The strategy also builds upon existing initiatives like the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), European Defence Fund (EDF), Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD), and European Peace Facility (EPF).

Challenges Ahead

Despite this ambitious vision, several challenges remain. Member states are divided over the protectionist orientation of the proposals, with some questioning whether prioritizing EU-based defense firms over non-EU suppliers is necessary to preserve the EU’s defense industrial base.

The EU also continues to face structural deficiencies, including insufficient common strategic culture, nascent shared threat analysis, and intelligence sharing. Additionally, there are weaknesses in autonomous action capability and governance issues that make decision-making slow and complex.

Most critically, the strategy’s success depends on securing long-term funding. EU officials acknowledge that the initial €1.5 billion allocation is not nearly enough to fulfill the strategy’s ambitions. They hope for a significant increase in EU defense spending in the next seven-year budget starting in 2028.

As von der Leyen stated, “By 2030, Europe must have rearmed and developed the capabilities to have a credible deterrence.” She underscored that the window for action is now if the continent wishes to shape its security posture for the emerging international order.