Thailand, the world’s third-largest sugar supplier, is experiencing a significant decrease in sugar production this season due to dry weather impacting sugarcane growth.
This unexpected drop threatens to tighten global supply and potentially elevate market prices further.
Thai Sugar Millers Association revises 2023–24 season estimate to 7.5 million tons, down 500,000 tons, says director Rangsit Hiangrat.
This projection indicates a reduction of one-third compared to last year’s output.
Rangsit attributes the decline to a critical lack of rainfall needed for sugarcane development, a situation worsened by climate change.
Despite late rains, the damage to crop growth was irreversible.
The market has already reacted, with raw sugar futures recording their most significant monthly increase since last April. Thailand’s diminished output is poised to exacerbate this trend.
Sugarcane yield hits decade low, mills produce 4.9M tons sugar from 49.57M tons cane since December 10.
This production rate—around 9.9% sugar recovery as of February 1—is a drop from the previous season’s 11.8%.
Historically, Thailand has maintained a recovery rate above 10%, producing more than 100 kilograms of sugar per ton of cane.
Milling operations, anticipated to conclude in March, are ending sooner than last season’s early April.
The industry group’s latest forecast ranges from 7 million to 7.5 million tons for 2023-24, down from earlier predictions.
This adjustment, representing all 57 Thai millers, underscores the challenges faced and the potential global implications of Thailand’s reduced sugar production.
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