Updated 1 time · Latest: 29 September 2026
Key Facts
- Gerdau fell 1.44% to US$4.78 in New York, though its São Paulo shares rose 0.40% to R$25.09 (about US$4.80) as the real weakened.
- Ternium slipped 1.61% to US$54.47, making it the weakest name on the board for the session.
- CSN’s New York shares rose 0.91% to US$1.11, the only gainer on the board.
- The SLX steel ETF fell 0.69% to US$104.08, reflecting a broadly softer global steel complex.
- Mexico wants the Section 232 steel duty cut from 50% to about 10%, seeking the kind of treatment Washington gives British steel.
- A USMCA metals tracker updated on 27 September shows the 50% US duty on Mexican steel still in force, with no published relief text.
Today’s Focus
Latin American steel shares mostly fell in New York on Monday. Ternium and Gerdau led the decline, while CSN edged higher. The moves came as the 50% US duty on Mexican steel stayed in force, with the fourth formal US-Mexico trade round postponed to October, and as Chinese data showed steelmakers’ profits down 62.4% so far this year.
Mexico is asking Washington to cut the US Section 232 steel tariff from 50% to about 10%, citing the preferential treatment of British steel. But a USMCA metals tracker updated on Sunday by trade consultancy ICPA shows the 50% steel duty still in force, with no published legal text granting relief.
That unresolved dispute is clouding the outlook for Mexican producers like Ternium, which are exposed to US-bound trade. Brazilian names were mixed. CSN’s New York-listed ADR rose while Gerdau’s slipped, although Gerdau gained in São Paulo.
The broader SLX steel ETF fell 0.69% to US$104.08, signalling that the day’s softness was not purely a Latin American story but part of a wider pause in the global steel trade.
What matters today. The unresolved 50% US tariff on Mexican steel is the dominant overhang for regional producers, while Brazil’s names were mixed, with the weaker real shaping their New York prices.
01 The session in one read
Latin American steel shares turned lower on Monday, with the two Brazilian ADRs moving in opposite directions. Gerdau’s New York shares fell 1.44% to US$4.78, while CSN’s ADR rose 0.91% to US$1.11.
Mexico’s Ternium was the weakest name, sliding 1.61% to US$54.47. The broad SLX steel ETF, which counts Gerdau among its holdings, fell 0.69% to US$104.08, showing the softness was not confined to Latin America.
The session’s main story was not construction or automotive demand but trade policy. Mexico’s request to cut the steel tariff to 10% remains just that: a request, with no published legal text to back it. Until that changes, Ternium’s US exposure keeps a discount relative to Brazilian peers that sell into a more protected home market. China’s 62.4% slump in steel-mill profits adds a second weight: margin pressure there tends to push more cheap metal abroad. The variable to watch is any formal US Federal Register notice or joint statement lowering the Section 232 rate.
02 The board
The price board painted a mixed picture: two decliners, one gainer, and a broad fund tracking the group lower. Ternium led the fall at 1.61%, followed by Gerdau at 1.44%.
CSN managed a gain of 0.91%, a countertrend move that stands out against the broadly lower steel ETF. The SLX’s 0.69% decline suggests global steel equities, not just regional ones, faced mild selling pressure.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Steel (SLX ETF) | US$104.08 | -0.69% |
| Gerdau | US$4.78 | -1.44% |
| CSN (ADR) | US$1.11 | +0.91% |
| Ternium | US$54.47 | -1.61% |
Source: RT close, 2026-09-28. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 172,457.76 | +0.66% | +9.73% | 171,324.31 | 172,715 | 171,132 | — |
| IPSA | 10,660.94 | +0.34% | — | 10,625.19 | 10,699 | 10,624 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,204.98 | -0.84% | +13.87% | 71,811.20 | 71,981 | 71,044 | 149,701,210 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,452.46 | -0.02% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.67 | +0.45% | +7.09% | 5.64 | 5.67 | 5.63 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.25 | +0.93% | +1.93% | 6.19 | 6.26 | 6.21 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.52 | -0.42% | +1.29% | 18.60 | 18.63 | 18.51 | — |
| USD/CLP | 994.16 | -0.13% | +6.95% | 995.48 | 1,002 | 993.78 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,302 | +0.70% | -10.86% | 3,279 | 3,331 | 3,302 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.40 | -0.16% | +0.77% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.39 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,544 | -0.11% | +9.58% | 1,545 | 1,548 | 1,543 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.59 | +2.33% | +3.41% | 39.67 | 40.59 | 40.52 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,196 | +2.33% | -10.79% | 6,055 | 6,196 | 6,185 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.59 | -0.37% | +72.02% | 11.63 | 11.60 | 11.55 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.59 | +1.85% | -5.40% | 59.49 | 60.61 | 60.27 | — |
| USD/CRC | 442.74 | -0.10% | -9.70% | 443.16 | 445.25 | 442.74 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +2.06% | +2.02% | 7.49 | 7.65 | 7.64 | — |
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03 What moved it
The main driver is the unresolved US-Mexico trade dispute. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard is seeking to reduce the US Section 232 steel tariff on Mexico from 50% to about 10%, on a UK-style basis. On vehicles, now subject to a 25% duty, several automakers expect Washington to offer Mexico the 15% framework discussed with Canada, Reuters reported.
But ICPA’s USMCA tracker, updated on Sunday, shows the 50% duty on Mexican steel still in force, with no published legal text showing negotiated relief. That gap between proposal and reality is keeping Mexican steel exporters on uncertain footing.
Cheap Chinese imports remain a background pressure across the region, though no fresh data for the session quantified shipments into Brazil or Mexico. The absence of new tariff relief means producers still face both US duties and Asian competition.
04 Monday’s data, one by one
Saturday’s edition set four steel markers; our weekly preview added the day’s releases.
US-Mexico trade round: postponed. The fourth formal round, once pencilled in for Washington on Monday and Tuesday, has slipped to October with no date set, Mexico’s foreign-trade undersecretary Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez Romano said. Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard was due in Washington on Monday, President Claudia Sheinbaum said, but neither side published a statement or tariff text by the close, and the 50% steel duty stayed in force. Ternium fell 1.61%.
Mexico trade balance (August): surplus. Mexico posted a US$605 million surplus, against forecasts ranging from a small deficit to a US$1.4 billion surplus, and reversing July’s US$848 million deficit, INEGI said. Exports jumped 40.4% to US$78.0 billion, and mining-metallurgical exports rose 50.4%. Auto exports fell 2.2%, a soft read for Ternium’s flat-steel customers.
China industrial profits (January–August): below forecast. Profits rose 15.7% year on year, versus an 18.0% forecast and 17.6% for January to July; August alone grew 4.2%, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Ferrous smelting and rolling profits fell 62.4%, deeper than the 51.2% drop to July. The SLX steel ETF fell 0.69%.
Dallas Fed manufacturing (September): above forecast. The general activity index eased to 9.8 from 11.6, well above the 1.0 forecast. A primary-metals maker warned that cutting tariffs on Mexican aluminum would open a conduit for cheap foreign metal, the same argument that hangs over steel.
Brazil’s external accounts (August). The Central Bank reported a US$5.05 billion current-account deficit, against about US$4.9 billion expected, and US$7.40 billion of direct investment, against about US$6.9 billion expected. The real still weakened 0.86%.
Brazil construction, Chinese export volumes, Brazil’s import quotas. No new data or rule change on Monday.
05 The Latin American read
For Mexico, Ternium’s slide reflects direct exposure to the tariff standoff. Its Mexican plants supply manufacturers that sell into the US, so a 50% duty versus a hoped-for 10% rate matters for its competitive position.
For Brazil, the story is more nuanced. Gerdau’s ADR fell, but its São Paulo shares rose 0.40% to R$25.09 (about US$4.80). The gap partly reflects the real, which weakened 0.86% to 5.2255 per US dollar.
CSN’s gain is the exception. Its São Paulo shares also rose, by 0.67% to R$5.99 (about US$1.15), after steep losses last week.
06 The names to watch
Ternium is the most sensitive to any tariff headline. Any cut from the 50% duty could re-rate the stock quickly given its US exposure.
Gerdau is the bellwether for Brazilian long-steel demand, which is tied to construction. With no fresh construction data for the session, the ADR’s fall was mainly a currency effect, not a demand signal.
CSN’s ADR at US$1.11 remains a low-priced vehicle for foreign investors wanting Brazilian steel exposure, and its 0.91% gain followed drops of 3.39% and 3.51% on 23 and 24 September.
07 The outlook
The next catalyst is almost certainly political rather than industrial. Any breakthrough in US-Mexico tariff negotiations would shift the risk premium embedded in Ternium and lift the broader regional complex.
Without that, the sector is likely to drift with global steel sentiment, which was mildly negative on Monday. Chinese import pressure and construction demand remain the twin unknowns that will determine whether Brazilian producers can hold current levels.
08 What to watch
- US-Mexico tariff text: Any published legal text cutting the 50% Section 232 duty would directly re-rate Ternium and regional peers.
- Tuesday’s calendar: any readout from Ebrard’s Washington visit (the formal fourth round is now due in October), the G20 trade ministerial that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hosts in Milwaukee from Tuesday, and China’s September PMIs at 1.30 am UTC Wednesday (manufacturing forecast 50.1, prior 49.8).
- Chinese import data into Brazil: Fresh shipment figures would show whether cheap Asian steel is displacing domestic production or being absorbed by demand.
- Brazilian construction activity: Gerdau’s home market demand matters more than global trade for long-steel producers, so any construction print matters.
- Global steel ETF flows: The SLX’s direction signals foreign investor appetite for steel equities broadly, including Latin American holdings.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Ternium fall on Monday?
Ternium fell 1.61% to US$54.47 as US-Mexico tariff talks remained unresolved, with the 50% Section 232 duty still in force.
Why did CSN rise while others fell?
CSN’s New York ADR rose 0.91% to US$1.11, a rebound after steep losses last week. Its São Paulo shares gained 0.67%.
What is the SLX?
The SLX is the VanEck Steel ETF, a fund that tracks steel-producing companies globally and counts Brazil’s Gerdau among its holdings.
What tariff cut is Mexico seeking?
Mexico is asking Washington to cut the Section 232 steel tariff on its products from 50% to about 10%, citing the preferential treatment of British steel.
Source: RT live market data, close of Monday 28 September 2026.
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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