Significant reduction of young population in Brazil by 2060 – FGV study

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The number of youths aged 15 to 29 in Brazil will drop significantly over the next 40 years, and may be reduced by almost half by the end of this century. This slump in the young population will lower the nation’s chances of prosperity and may lead to a labor shortage in the country for the first time.

The study was conducted by the Social Policies Center of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), in partnership with the “Youth Atlas” project, and was based on data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the United Nations, and DataSus.

According to Marcelo Neri, director of FGV Social and the study’s author, this perspective of population reduction among youths is due to the decline in female fertility: in 1970 each woman had an average of 5.8 children, today less than 2. The increase in life expectancy among the elderly further dilutes the proportion of youths in the population, as does economic development and the institution of public welfare.

According to FGV, for almost two decades in the 21st century, Brazil has had just over 50 million people between the ages of 15 and 29 – double the number in 1970.

However, after that period of intense growth, since 2009, when a record 52.3 million young people were registered, the figure has been slowly dropping every year. Over the next 40 years the decline is expected to accelerate sharply and a loss of a quarter of the size of the young population is expected.

“Brazil will be running against the wind – and the wind used to be in its favor. We had the largest youth in history both past and prospective. We also had a growing working population, except that has now reversed and will deepen over time. The pandemic itself may be leading to declining birth rates, which may worsen these projections. We are going to experience a shortage of labor in the country for the first time in history. This plays against growth,” Neri alerted.

“The transition in Brazil is being highly accelerated. We didn’t capitalize on this demographic bonus, we didn’t grow when the wind was blowing in our favor, and we didn’t properly train our population,” Neri pondered. “Whatever the country’s economic scenario, there is a need to better qualify young labor,” he added.

This projection of a reduction in the young population is now observed in most countries. According to United Nations projections, by 2060, the percentage of young people will decrease in 95% of the 201 countries with population projections.

Currently, Japan has the lowest percentage of youths in the world (14.7%), followed by Italy (15%), Spain (15.3%), Greece (15.9%), and Portugal (15.9%). All of these countries have projections of a decrease in coming years, albeit not very pronounced.

Among the countries with the highest projected decreases of the young are Taiwan, where the projection for 2060 shows only a 12.9% youth rate, followed by Puerto Rico (12.8%), Albania (12.8%), Singapore (12.6%) and South Korea (11.7%).

The latter will have the world’s lowest percentage of youths according to the UN. The projection for the Brazilian rate is 15.3% and will be closer to this extreme South Korean minimum than to the world average (20%).

National rates

Among Brazilian states, Rio de Janeiro is that with the lowest rate of youths (22.1%). Next come Rio Grande do Sul (22.1%) and São Paulo (22.2%), followed by other states in the South and Southeast.

The highest percentage of people aged between 15 and 29 is in the state of Amapá (29.1%), followed by Acre (28.7%), Roraima (28.6%) and other states in the North and Northeast regions.

According to the study, among municipalities, the “youngest” is Pracinha, in São Paulo, with 48.2% of its population. The least young is Mato Queimado, in Rio Grande do Sul, with 11.99%. The study also shows that among the 20 least young municipalities in the country, 18 are located in Rio Grande do Sul.

Perceptions of young Brazilians

The study also considered young Brazilians’ perceptions. Regarding “satisfaction with life in the present,” on a scale of 0 to 10, the country has witnessed a continuous decline in recent years. In 2020, the most recent indicator available, the index stood at 6.4 points, the lowest level in the Brazilian series of life satisfaction surveys.

Between 2013 and 2014, for instance, the level reached was 7.2 points. Since then, this figure has been declining. The general evaluations that address the day-to-day emotions felt by youth have also worsened. The positive (happiness) and negative (worry and anger) indicators worsened, particularly during the economic recession and in 2020, as a result of the pandemic.

According to the FGV study, in terms of the feeling of joy, between 2015 and 2018, 86.6% of youths said they had smiled or laughed a lot the day before. However, the pandemic caused this rate to drop to 76%. As for young Brazilians who are worried, the rate rose from 44% between 2015 and 2018 to 59% in 2020, reaching a new record and evidencing a “youth over-concern.”

Other data that aso draw attention in the study point out that 41% of 15-29 year olds were pleased with the education system in 2020. This was the lowest level of the series, according to the FGV study. As for the proportion of young Brazilians happy with the measures adopted in relation to environmental preservation, it dropped from 33.1% in 2015-18, to 27% in 2019 and then to 19% in 2020.

Source: CNN Brasil