Saudi Crude Exports Fall by Two Thirds as the Yanbu Pipeline Shuts and Egypt Becomes the Last Route Out
EGYPT · ENERGY
Key Facts
- —What happened Saudi crude loadings fell to about 2.1 million barrels a day in early September, from 7.5 million in January.
- —The immediate cause Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline to Yanbu on 11 and 12 September after repeated drone attacks.
- —How much supply that removes The shutdown takes four to five million barrels a day of capacity out of service for weeks.
- —Why the sea routes are closed The Strait of Hormuz has largely been closed since war began on 28 February, and Bab al-Mandeb is under blockade.
- —Egypt’s role Crude moving through the northern Red Sea corridor rose about a third, to roughly 1.1 million barrels a day.
- —What is not known Saudi Arabia has not said when the pipeline will return to service.
From seven and a half million barrels a day in January to two point one in September, and one corridor still open.
Saudi Arabia’s seaborne crude exports have fallen to about 2.1 million barrels a day in early September 2026. They stood at roughly 7.5 million barrels a day in January and February.
What the Numbers Show
Saudi crude loadings averaged about 2.3 million barrels a day in August 2026 and about 2.1 million in early September. In January and February they were running at roughly 7.5 million barrels a day.
That is a fall of more than seventy percent inside a year. It is one of the largest reductions in a single exporter’s seaborne volumes in recent decades.
The Pipeline That Shut
On 11 and 12 September 2026 Saudi Arabia took its East-West pipeline out of service after repeated drone attacks launched from Iraq. The line carries crude from the eastern oilfields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Officials said it would be out for weeks. The shutdown removes four to five million barrels a day of capacity from the global market.
Why the Sea Routes Are Not Available
The Strait of Hormuz has largely been closed since war between the United States, Israel and Iran began on 28 February 2026. Hormuz is the channel through which most Gulf crude normally leaves.
Bab al-Mandeb, at the southern end of the Red Sea, is now controlled by Houthi forces. They declared a maritime embargo on Saudi vessels on 20 July 2026.
What Is Left, and It Runs Through Egypt
With Hormuz closed and Bab al-Mandeb blockaded, the northern Red Sea corridor into Egypt is the remaining route. Saudi crude moving that way rose about a third after the July blockade declaration, to roughly 1.1 million barrels a day.
Total loadings at Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean reached about 2.3 million barrels a day in August. That figure includes crude from other suppliers as well as Saudi volumes.
The Pipeline Carrying It
The SUMED pipeline moves crude from the Red Sea across Egypt to the Mediterranean. It carries oil too heavy to transit the Suez Canal fully laden.
Flows reached about 1.9 million barrels a day in August. That is close to what the line can handle.
Egypt cannot absorb much more volume without new capacity. Expanding the line would take years.
How Fast the Southern Route Emptied
Shipments from Yanbu toward Bab el-Mandeb fell by almost ninety percent in a fortnight. Weekly volumes dropped to 1.3 million barrels in the first week of August from 11 million in the third week of July.
Those are weekly totals, not daily rates. The fall followed the blockade declaration almost immediately.
The Diplomacy That Followed
On 15 September 2026 the Saudi crown prince sought Egypt’s backing as attacks continued to disrupt Red Sea oil routes. Egypt now controls the only functioning corridor for a large share of Saudi exports.
That gives Cairo leverage it did not have a year ago. It also gives it exposure, because a drone strike in Egypt in late July already raised security concerns about the route.
What This Means for Prices
Removing several million barrels a day of export capacity from the market is a large supply shock by any measure. Prices reflect both the lost volume and the uncertainty about when it returns.
We are not forecasting a price level. The relevant point for readers is that the constraint is physical and cannot be resolved by policy alone.
What It Means for Businesses in the Region
For importers across Africa and the Mediterranean, freight and insurance costs on any cargo touching the Red Sea have risen. Those costs pass into fuel and into everything that moves by road.
For Egypt, transit revenue is up while security risk is also up. Both are real and neither cancels the other.
What Is Not Yet Known
Saudi Arabia has not said when the East-West pipeline will return to service. Nor has it published a repair assessment.
It is also unclear how much of the lost volume is being stored rather than sold. Storage figures for the period have not been released.
What to Watch
Any announcement on the pipeline’s return. That single event would change the supply picture more than any other.
Watch also for Egyptian capacity announcements on SUMED. The corridor is close to its limit, and expanding it is the only physical way to raise the ceiling.
More: Africa news and analysis, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far have Saudi exports fallen?
To about 2.1 million barrels a day in early September, from roughly 7.5 million in January and February 2026.
What happened to the pipeline?
Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on 11 and 12 September after repeated drone attacks launched from Iraq.
How much capacity is out?
Four to five million barrels a day, for a period officials have described as weeks.
Why can ships not use the usual routes?
The Strait of Hormuz has largely been closed since 28 February 2026, and Bab al-Mandeb is under a Houthi blockade declared on 20 July.
What is Egypt’s role?
The northern Red Sea corridor and the SUMED pipeline across Egypt are the remaining route to the Mediterranean.
When will exports recover?
No date has been given for the pipeline’s return to service.
Sources: Ship-tracking and market reporting on Saudi crude loadings, August and September 2026; news agency coverage of the East-West pipeline shutdown, 11 to 15 September 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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