Polarization, discontent, and reforms: challenges for whoever wins in Colombia

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Reforms to continue with economic growth and advance in rights, an unprecedented polarization in Colombia and discontent due to unsatisfied social demands are among the challenges that whoever wins the Colombian presidential elections will face.

This situation is also framed within a challenge that is becoming more acute: the increase in violence and the dilemma that the next president will face: to sit down and negotiate with the armed groups and the guerrillas or to continue with the “peace with legality” approach that the current government has championed.

Added to this is the pressure to maintain the economic growth – of 10.6% of GDP in 2021 – that Colombia has experienced and its responsibility to adopt measures that guarantee its continuity and, at the same time, bend the country’s inflationary curve.

In this line, “the first thing the next Government has to do is to guarantee that there are resources to be able to carry out all the social reforms”, warns political analyst Pedro Viveros in an interview with EFE, where he points out the need to approve a tax reform with which, for the moment, all the candidates have shown to agree.

This reform should be accompanied by a pension reform, two major legislative projects for which the next president will have to seek support in Congress, where he will face another challenge: polarization, since there are “great divisions”, in Viveros’ words.

The demands that Colombians took to the streets during the last two social outbursts, in 2019 and 2021, remain a pending issue that the next president will have to face, trying to promote a “more inclusive productive model”, which takes into account the issue of land and food security, explains analyst Yann Basset, professor of Political Science at the Universidad del Rosario.

THE SPECTER OF FRAUD

The elections will be held next Sunday, May 29. Although the favorite in the polls is Senator Gustavo Petro of the leftist coalition Pacto Histórico, it seems unlikely that he will obtain half plus one of the votes needed to win in the first round, which would force a second round on June 19 between the first two.

The phantom of fraud, which threatens to appear again after the hint of the past legislative elections, may affect the governability of the winner.

“There is a risk if Gustavo Petro does not win” since “the accusations of fraud in March” came from his coalition, adds Basset.

However, it is expected that these elections will not be “so complicated” at the time of the recount since, in March, the members of the Senate and the House of Representatives, the peace seats, and candidates of the three main coalitions to aspire to the Presidency were elected. “There are only seven candidates; it will be much easier to know the result,” asserts Viveros.

“In the background, there is a lot of uncertainty about what a left-wing government could look like in Colombia,” says Basset, referring to Petro and his lead in the polls and “what kind of institutional challenge he would pose.”

The agenda in case of Petro’s victory would revolve around “how to make the Colombian institutional system (…) work with such a drastic change considering the country’s political culture”, especially without having a majority in Congress, explains Basset.

Indeed, “Colombia is a country of the center, and, paradoxically, the two leading candidates in the polls are right-wing and left-wing,” adds Basset.

This is a phenomenon that brings with it “a challenge to manage public opinion and a discontent that has manifested itself very strongly and could manifest itself again, particularly if Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez wins,” adds Basset, referring to the second candidate in the polls, from the right-wing Team for Colombia.

The campaign, moreover, has brought with it “many exaggerated fears and much-exaggerated enthusiasm” in an environment in which “many emotions” have been involved, according to the analyst.

OTHER CHALLENGES

Both analysts also agree on the urgency of promoting a more sustainable energy model and addressing the issue of drug trafficking and drugs.

Other challenges for whoever wins the Presidency will be implementing the peace agreement, especially after the increase in violence that the country has experienced in recent months and the criticism of the current Administration for the ineffectiveness in its application.

Venezuela will be one of the critical pieces in the international arena: reestablish relations entirely or opt for a more gradual process. In any case, “there is almost a consensus and a willingness to resume relations at the management level of current affairs”, concludes Viveros.

With information from EFE