Peru’s November Growth Missed Forecasts as Mining, Oil, and Fishing Slumped

Key Points

• Peru grew 1.53% in November 2025, missing forecasts as mining and hydrocarbons fell 6.47%.
• Construction and consumer-facing sectors stayed strong, masking how dependent the headline is on commodities.
• The split matters for the sol, tax revenue, and investor confidence heading into 2026 planning.

Peru’s economy expanded 1.53% year-on-year in November 2025, a sharp undershoot versus analyst expectations near 2.85% and below the central bank’s roughly 2% projection.

The disappointment was driven less by everyday activity than by Peru’s familiar vulnerability: when big commodity engines wobble, the national number quickly loses altitude.

Mining and hydrocarbons contracted 6.47% from a year earlier, ending a five-month run of gains. The largest hit came from copper, whose output fell about 12.1% in November.

Copper slump drags Peru growth

In a country where copper is both an export anchor and a fiscal lifeline, that one swing can overpower improvements elsewhere. Other mining metals also declined, including molybdenum at roughly -7.3% and tin at about -19.1%.

Offsetting increases in zinc (+13.7%), lead (+10.8%), iron (+5.6%), and a modest rise in gold (+0.4%) were not enough to change the story.

Energy weakened too. The hydrocarbons subsector fell about 8.6%, with crude oil down roughly 19%, natural gas down about 9%, and natural-gas liquids slightly lower (around -1.3%).

Agriculture slipped about 1.0%, with declines reported across products such as paprika, corn-on-the-cob, carrots, garlic, mango, sweet potato, and mandarins.

Fishing plunged about 17.9%, led by anchoveta: catches for fishmeal and fish oil were about 763,000 tonnes versus roughly 1,068,000 tonnes a year earlier, amid fewer effective fishing days and a later start to the season in the north-central zone.

Yet the non-commodity economy looked healthier. Construction surged 9.83%, supported by higher domestic cement consumption (+11.15%) and stronger public-works execution (+7.08%).

Commerce rose 4.17%, with wholesale activity benefiting from fuel distribution and demand linked to mining and construction supply chains. Transport and storage grew 3.25%, hotels and restaurants 4.38%, government services 4.39%, and utilities 1.10%.

For January through November, Peru’s economy grew 3.39%, and the 12 months through November showed 3.55%. The finance ministry’s late-August view was growth up to 3.5% for 2025, versus the central bank’s 3.3%, after 3.3% in 2024.

The message for readers outside Peru is straightforward: commodity volatility still dictates the headline, even when the street-level economy keeps moving.

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