Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 15, 2026
This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
Today’s Key Themes
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- Fiscal fine print scrutiny → Brazil’s 2025 deficit near zero at 0.1% GDP, but adjustments including court costs push it higher to 0.48%, highlighting debt pressures amid rising gross debt to 79.3% GDP
- Political shift in key state → Minas Gerais Governor Zema plans March 2026 resignation to run for president, aiming to build national profile in fragmented 2026 election field
- Housing sector cash test → MRV&Co reports Q4 sales up 5.9% to R$2.76B with record cash generation, but turnaround hinges on converting sales to bank transfers amid U.S. unit burn
- Ibovespa record surge → Index hits new high despite global dips, led by commodities amid foreign inflows
- Currency risk repricing → USD/BRL reclaims R$5.40 on geopolitics and local politics, signaling higher Brazil premium
- Precious metals pullback → Gold and silver ease from records on profit-taking, while copper retreats amid demand concerns
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\nBroader risk: Fiscal adjustments, political maneuvers, and geopolitical tensions could amplify EM volatility, impacting FX, equities, and commodities
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\nToday’s economic agenda features several key events across regions. These are integrated with ongoing developments.
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\nBrazil’s 2025 fiscal deficit remained near zero at 0.1% of GDP but rises to 0.48% when including fine-print adjustments, such as court-ordered payments. This highlights persistent debt dynamics and keeps markets focused on actual cash flows.
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\nAdditionally, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema’s planned March resignation to pursue a presidential run could reshape opposition strategies in the 2026 election, testing electoral dynamics in a key economic state.
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\nMRV&Co’s housing turnaround shows Q4 sales growth to R$2.76 billion with improved cash, but success depends on timely bank transfers.
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\nIn Brazil, Retail Sales (YoY) for November at 7:00 AM BRT and Retail Sales (MoM) for November at 7:00 AM BRT assess consumer spending trends, crucial for GDP amid fiscal pressures.
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\nAuto Production (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT and Auto Sales (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT evaluate industry resilience, vital for employment and manufacturing output.
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\nIn Mexico, Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) for October at 7:00 AM CST signals capital spending health, influencing growth prospects; Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) for October at 7:00 AM CST tracks annual investment shifts amid regional trade dynamics.
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\nIn the U.S., Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST monitors labor market strength, affecting Fed policy; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) at 8:30 AM EST gauges factory activity, impacting global supply chains; Natural Gas Storage at 10:30 AM EST reveals energy inventory levels, influencing commodity prices.
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Economic Agenda for January 15, 2026
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Brazil
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- 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 1.1%
- 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.5%
- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Production (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -11.6%
- 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Sales (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -8.5%
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Mexico
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- 7:00 AM CST – Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 1.50% Prev: -0.30%
- 7:00 AM CST – Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) (Oct) Cons: -4.30% Prev: -6.70%
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Argentina
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- No major releases today.
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Chile
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- No major releases today.
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Colombia
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- No major releases today.
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United States
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- 8:30 AM EST – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 215K Prev: 208K
- 8:30 AM EST – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) Cons: -1.6 Prev: -10.2
- 10:30 AM EST – Natural Gas Storage Cons: -89B Prev: -119B
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EU
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- 2:45 AM CET – French CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.2%
- 3:00 AM CET – Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
- 4:00 AM CET – ECB Economic Bulletin Cons: – Prev: –
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UK
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- 2:00 AM GMT – GDP (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.1%
- 2:00 AM GMT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 1.3%
- 2:00 AM GMT – Trade Balance (Nov) Cons: -20.30B Prev: -24.17B
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China
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- 2:00 AM CST – M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 8.0% Prev: 8.0%
- 2:00 AM CST – New Loans (Dec) Cons: 820.0B Prev: 390.0B
- 2:00 AM CST – Chinese Total Social Financing (Dec) Cons: 2,000.0B Prev: 2,490.0B
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\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian retail and auto data are main domestic focuses — stronger figures could affirm consumer and sector resilience, supporting real & equities amid fiscal and political shifts.
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\nU.S. jobless claims and manufacturing are global spotlights: robust data might temper rate-cut hopes, bolstering dollar and weighing on EM; softer reads would fuel easing bets, lifting risk assets like BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 14, 2026)
\nIbovespa +1.96% to 165,145.98 on R$21.3 billion turnover. Commodities led surge with VALE3 +4.74%, PETR4 nearly +3%; top gainers included VALE3 +4.74%, BRAP4 +4.32%, TIMS3 +4.30%.
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\nEarly Thursday mini-futures ~165,800–166,200 (~0.4% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.394. Charts bullish with breakout above rising averages, support at 164,000.
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\nRead more
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Commodity Markets
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- Gold – Around $4,608.77/oz down 0.3%; eased on profit-taking and softer geopolitical tone after record, but safe-haven demand lingers.
- Silver – Around $89.63/oz down 3.4%; unwinding crowded rally with volatility, testing support amid industrial outlook.
- Copper – Around $13,129.50/ton on LME; pulled back 0.45% from record on physical demand concerns, despite fund interest.
- Platinum – Around $2,321.65/oz down 2.6%; sliding in profit-taking wave with precious metals retreat.
- Palladium – Around $1,804.10/oz down 1.3%; easing with safe-haven cooling, lagging broader rally.
- Aluminium – Around $3,200/ton on LME; up 0.1%, holding near highs on tight supply narrative.
- Iron Ore – Around $107.68/ton; flat, under pressure from China output signals but balanced by supply focus.
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Currency
\nBrazilian Real → Weakened with dollar reclaiming R$5.40 to near 5.4008; driven by geopolitics (U.S. visa suspensions, Iran tensions) and politics (polls, minister chatter); technicals cautious with RSI mid-40s, pivot at 5.406.
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Companies and Market
\nBrazil says 2025 deficit stayed near zero, but the fine print matters → Closed at 0.1% GDP deficit within tolerance, but including adjustments rises to 0.48%; debt at 79.3% GDP, focus on cash outflows and potential reshuffle.
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\nBrazil’s key swing state goes national: report says Governor Zema plans a March exit to run → Resignation March 22 to campaign for president, handing to vice; Minas Gerais (8.9% GDP) key for polls, Zema at 5-6% nationally.
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\nMRV’s cash turnaround faces a single test: turning home sales into bank transfers → Q4 sales R$2.76B (+5.9%), launches R$2.85B; cash generation R$174.8M ex-assignments, but U.S. unit burns $25.6M; transfers 9,865 units.
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 14, 2026)
\nFinished lower: Dow -0.09% to 49,149.63, S&P 500 -0.53% to 6,926.60, Nasdaq -1.00% to 23,471.75.
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\nTech selloff amid earnings and geopolitics; rotation to energy and value; weekly mixed with broader participation improving.
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Regional Peers — Mixed/resilient:
\nColombia peso rally to ~3,655/USD & COLCAP up on $5B issuance inflows and oil tailwind
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\nMexico peso stronger ~17.81/USD, IPC +1.6% to 67,403 new high on Banxico caution and blue-chips
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\nArgentina peso stronger ~1,453/USD official, Merval -2.84% to 2,950,111 amid tight liquidity
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\nChile peso firms to ~881.62/USD, IPSA -0.3% to 11,219.98 cooling after records on risk aversion
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\nNote: Crypto markets bid as ETF inflows return — Bitcoin ~high-$80,000s on $471.3M inflows; Ether +$174.5M; altcoins wild with surges/drops.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.66%
177,375
+0.66%
68,412
+0.11%
10,778
+2.03%
2,846,220
-1.08%
2,118
-0.22%
19,767
+0.37%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 177,375 | +0.66% | +28.41% | 176,210 | 177,489 | 176,210 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.01 | -0.60% | -11.31% | 5.04 | 5.04 | 4.99 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.83 | -0.20% | -9.14% | 5.84 | 5.87 | 5.82 | — |
| SELIC | 14.50% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.21 | -3.22% | +56.36% | 103.54 | 97.59 | 93.20 | 15,722 |
| WTI | 96.60 | +0.00% | +58.65% | 96.60 | 93.90 | 89.41 | 110,462 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +62.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,523 | +0.05% | +37.10% | 4,521 | 4,583 | 4,531 | 62,533 |
| SILVER | 76.20 | +0.40% | +129.89% | 75.89 | 79.25 | 76.71 | 16,750 |
| LITHIUM | 85.28 | +1.07% | +127.29% | 84.38 | 85.64 | 84.56 | 709,796 |
| SOY | 1,197 | +0.19% | +12.61% | 1,194 | 1,202 | 1,191 | 67,289 |
| CORN | 463.25 | +0.22% | +0.82% | 462.25 | 467.75 | 461.00 | 149,851 |
| WHEAT | 646.25 | -0.19% | +22.28% | 647.50 | 654.00 | 642.25 | 49,826 |
| COFFEE | 264.00 | -3.44% | -27.01% | 273.40 | 274.80 | 270.70 | 8,179 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -1.48% | -14.75% | 14.90 | 14.91 | 14.59 | 41,558 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 166.80 | +0.12% | -39.63% | 166.60 | 175.10 | 165.90 | 723 |
| COTTON | 77.34 | -0.82% | +17.95% | 77.98 | 69.62 | 69.04 | 22,976 |
| BEEF | 239.60 | -3.83% | +11.38% | 249.15 | 240.98 | 236.83 | 31,815 |
| CATTLE | 349.85 | -5.22% | +17.34% | 369.13 | 355.50 | 344.28 | 21,796 |
| COCOA | 3,886 | +3.16% | -60.10% | 3,767 | 3,829 | 3,651 | 14,971 |
| PETR4 | 43.46 | -2.29% | +38.91% | 44.48 | 43.82 | 43.32 | 15,625,800 |
| VALE3 | 82.77 | -0.40% | +53.25% | 83.10 | 83.06 | 82.45 | 3,838,300 |
| SUZB3 | 41.53 | -0.41% | -21.32% | 41.70 | 42.10 | 41.38 | 1,253,200 |
| KLABIN | 16.53 | +0.43% | -14.07% | 16.46 | 16.60 | 16.48 | 1,105,500 |
| SLCE3 | 16.20 | +0.81% | -3.42% | 16.07 | 16.25 | 16.04 | 764,400 |
| ABEV3 | 16.37 | +1.68% | +14.87% | 16.10 | 16.37 | 16.16 | 6,221,800 |
| ITUB4 | 40.31 | +2.23% | +9.73% | 39.43 | 40.32 | 39.86 | 4,881,800 |
| BBDC4 | 17.97 | +1.99% | +14.19% | 17.62 | 17.97 | 17.74 | 5,458,000 |
| BBAS3 | 21.54 | +2.87% | -12.65% | 20.94 | 21.55 | 21.13 | 8,811,000 |
| B3SA3 | 17.25 | +3.54% | +20.45% | 16.66 | 17.30 | 16.78 | 7,795,700 |
| WEGE3 | 43.33 | +1.40% | -0.89% | 42.73 | 43.45 | 43.00 | 1,158,200 |
| PRIO3 | 65.76 | -3.86% | +68.60% | 68.40 | 67.25 | 65.46 | 3,190,600 |
| RENT3 | 44.44 | +2.51% | +8.91% | 43.35 | 44.58 | 43.88 | 2,559,800 |
| AZZA3 | 20.78 | +0.29% | -47.35% | 20.72 | 21.02 | 20.37 | 839,900 |
| CSNA3 | 6.67 | -0.89% | -24.29% | 6.73 | 6.83 | 6.60 | 3,095,500 |
| GGBR4 | 23.96 | -0.21% | +53.20% | 24.01 | 24.23 | 23.78 | 1,131,700 |
| ENEV3 | 25.05 | +0.36% | +78.35% | 24.96 | 25.37 | 24.93 | 1,139,900 |
| LREN3 | 15.44 | +2.46% | -13.08% | 15.07 | 15.44 | 15.13 | 3,413,400 |