Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 15, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Fiscal fine print scrutiny → Brazil’s 2025 deficit near zero at 0.1% GDP, but adjustments including court costs push it higher to 0.48%, highlighting debt pressures amid rising gross debt to 79.3% GDP

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• Political shift in key state → Minas Gerais Governor Zema plans March 2026 resignation to run for president, aiming to build national profile in fragmented 2026 election field

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• Housing sector cash test → MRV&Co reports Q4 sales up 5.9% to R$2.76B with record cash generation, but turnaround hinges on converting sales to bank transfers amid U.S. unit burn

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• Ibovespa record surge → Index hits new high despite global dips, led by commodities amid foreign inflows

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• Currency risk repricing → USD/BRL reclaims R$5.40 on geopolitics and local politics, signaling higher Brazil premium

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• Precious metals pullback → Gold and silver ease from records on profit-taking, while copper retreats amid demand concerns

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\nBroader risk: Fiscal adjustments, political maneuvers, and geopolitical tensions could amplify EM volatility, impacting FX, equities, and commodities
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\nToday’s economic agenda features several key events across regions. These are integrated with ongoing developments.
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\nBrazil’s 2025 fiscal deficit remained near zero at 0.1% of GDP but rises to 0.48% when including fine-print adjustments, such as court-ordered payments. This highlights persistent debt dynamics and keeps markets focused on actual cash flows.
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\nAdditionally, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema’s planned March resignation to pursue a presidential run could reshape opposition strategies in the 2026 election, testing electoral dynamics in a key economic state.
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\nMRV&Co’s housing turnaround shows Q4 sales growth to R$2.76 billion with improved cash, but success depends on timely bank transfers.
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\nIn Brazil, Retail Sales (YoY) for November at 7:00 AM BRT and Retail Sales (MoM) for November at 7:00 AM BRT assess consumer spending trends, crucial for GDP amid fiscal pressures.
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\nAuto Production (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT and Auto Sales (MoM) for December at 8:00 AM BRT evaluate industry resilience, vital for employment and manufacturing output.
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\nIn Mexico, Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) for October at 7:00 AM CST signals capital spending health, influencing growth prospects; Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) for October at 7:00 AM CST tracks annual investment shifts amid regional trade dynamics.
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\nIn the U.S., Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST monitors labor market strength, affecting Fed policy; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) at 8:30 AM EST gauges factory activity, impacting global supply chains; Natural Gas Storage at 10:30 AM EST reveals energy inventory levels, influencing commodity prices.
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Economic Agenda for January 15, 2026

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Brazil

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• 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 1.1%

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• 7:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.5%

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• 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Production (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -11.6%

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• 8:00 AM BRT – Auto Sales (MoM) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: -8.5%

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Mexico

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• 7:00 AM CST – Gross Fixed Investments (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 1.50% Prev: -0.30%

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• 7:00 AM CST – Gross Fixed Investments (YoY) (Oct) Cons: -4.30% Prev: -6.70%

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Argentina

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• No major releases today.

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Chile

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• No major releases today.

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Colombia

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• No major releases today.

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United States

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• 8:30 AM EST – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 215K Prev: 208K

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• 8:30 AM EST – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) Cons: -1.6 Prev: -10.2

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• 10:30 AM EST – Natural Gas Storage Cons: -89B Prev: -119B

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EU

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• 2:45 AM CET – French CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.2%

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• 3:00 AM CET – Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec) Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%

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• 4:00 AM CET – ECB Economic Bulletin Cons: – Prev: –

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UK

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• 2:00 AM GMT – GDP (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.1% Prev: -0.1%

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• 2:00 AM GMT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 1.3%

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• 2:00 AM GMT – Trade Balance (Nov) Cons: -20.30B Prev: -24.17B

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China

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• 2:00 AM CST – M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Dec) Cons: 8.0% Prev: 8.0%

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• 2:00 AM CST – New Loans (Dec) Cons: 820.0B Prev: 390.0B

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• 2:00 AM CST – Chinese Total Social Financing (Dec) Cons: 2,000.0B Prev: 2,490.0B

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\nImplication: Today’s Brazilian retail and auto data are main domestic focuses — stronger figures could affirm consumer and sector resilience, supporting real & equities amid fiscal and political shifts.
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\nU.S. jobless claims and manufacturing are global spotlights: robust data might temper rate-cut hopes, bolstering dollar and weighing on EM; softer reads would fuel easing bets, lifting risk assets like BRL.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 14, 2026)

\nIbovespa +1.96% to 165,145.98 on R$21.3 billion turnover. Commodities led surge with VALE3 +4.74%, PETR4 nearly +3%; top gainers included VALE3 +4.74%, BRAP4 +4.32%, TIMS3 +4.30%.
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\nEarly Thursday mini-futures ~165,800–166,200 (~0.4% above cash), USD/BRL near 5.394. Charts bullish with breakout above rising averages, support at 164,000.
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Commodity Markets

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• Gold – Around $4,608.77/oz down 0.3%; eased on profit-taking and softer geopolitical tone after record, but safe-haven demand lingers.

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• Silver – Around $89.63/oz down 3.4%; unwinding crowded rally with volatility, testing support amid industrial outlook.

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• Copper – Around $13,129.50/ton on LME; pulled back 0.45% from record on physical demand concerns, despite fund interest.

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• Platinum – Around $2,321.65/oz down 2.6%; sliding in profit-taking wave with precious metals retreat.

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• Palladium – Around $1,804.10/oz down 1.3%; easing with safe-haven cooling, lagging broader rally.

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• Aluminium – Around $3,200/ton on LME; up 0.1%, holding near highs on tight supply narrative.

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• Iron Ore – Around $107.68/ton; flat, under pressure from China output signals but balanced by supply focus.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → Weakened with dollar reclaiming R$5.40 to near 5.4008; driven by geopolitics (U.S. visa suspensions, Iran tensions) and politics (polls, minister chatter); technicals cautious with RSI mid-40s, pivot at 5.406.
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Companies and Market

\nBrazil says 2025 deficit stayed near zero, but the fine print matters → Closed at 0.1% GDP deficit within tolerance, but including adjustments rises to 0.48%; debt at 79.3% GDP, focus on cash outflows and potential reshuffle.
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\nBrazil’s key swing state goes national: report says Governor Zema plans a March exit to run → Resignation March 22 to campaign for president, handing to vice; Minas Gerais (8.9% GDP) key for polls, Zema at 5-6% nationally.
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\nMRV’s cash turnaround faces a single test: turning home sales into bank transfers → Q4 sales R$2.76B (+5.9%), launches R$2.85B; cash generation R$174.8M ex-assignments, but U.S. unit burns $25.6M; transfers 9,865 units.
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U.S. Markets Yesterday (Wednesday, January 14, 2026)

\nFinished lower: Dow -0.09% to 49,149.63, S&P 500 -0.53% to 6,926.60, Nasdaq -1.00% to 23,471.75.
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\nTech selloff amid earnings and geopolitics; rotation to energy and value; weekly mixed with broader participation improving.
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Regional Peers — Mixed/resilient:

\nColombia peso rally to ~3,655/USD & COLCAP up on $5B issuance inflows and oil tailwind
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\nMexico peso stronger ~17.81/USD, IPC +1.6% to 67,403 new high on Banxico caution and blue-chips
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\nArgentina peso stronger ~1,453/USD official, Merval -2.84% to 2,950,111 amid tight liquidity
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\nChile peso firms to ~881.62/USD, IPSA -0.3% to 11,219.98 cooling after records on risk aversion
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\nNote: Crypto markets bid as ETF inflows return — Bitcoin ~high-$80,000s on $471.3M inflows; Ether +$174.5M; altcoins wild with surges/drops.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate